Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(Leading up to the 2021 NFL season, FTN’s Tyler Loechner will dive into the fantasy football numbers to bring you his Fantasy Stat of the Day, five days a week.)
Not all running backs are created equal — and not every rushing attempt is an equal opportunity for RBs to rack up the yards. If the defense has more players “in the box” (near the line of scrimmage), running becomes inherently harder. More bodies, less space to run.
But some RBs were able to produce stellar yards per carry averages while facing stacked, 8-man boxes. Today’s Stat of the Day article will take a look at the RBs who gained the most YPC against 8-man boxes last season.
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Derrick Henry is not from this planet, and David Johnson might not be 100% finished
The chart below shows last season’s leaders sorted by averaged yards gained against 8-man boxes. on play action passes versus all passes (minimum 100 total rushing attempts).
| Player | Pos | 8 in Box Atts. | 8 in Box Yds. | 8 in Box Yards/Att. |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 13 | 96 | 7.4 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 72 | 433 | 6.0 |
| Ronald Jones | RB | 55 | 318 | 5.8 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 129 | 705 | 5.5 |
| Jeffery Wilson | RB | 50 | 257 | 5.1 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | 30 | 149 | 5.0 |
| David Johnson | RB | 26 | 128 | 4.9 |
| Gus Edwards | RB | 50 | 246 | 4.9 |
| Damien Harris | RB | 66 | 315 | 4.8 |
| James Conner | RB | 39 | 171 | 4.4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 31 | 136 | 4.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 27 | 117 | 4.3 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 50 | 209 | 4.2 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | 91 | 372 | 4.1 |
| Wayne Gallman | RB | 62 | 251 | 4.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | 115 | 446 | 3.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | 50 | 194 | 3.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 31 | 121 | 3.9 |
| Mike Davis | RB | 70 | 276 | 3.9 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 46 | 181 | 3.9 |
Devin Singletary sits atop the list with an impressive 7.4 YPC average against 8-man boxes. His sample size is really small (only 13 attempts against stacked boxes), but the breakaway potential is apparent. With fellow Buffalo RB Zack Moss garnering a lot of looks at the goal line, Singletary’s best bet for sustained fantasy relevancy is to continue ripping off big runs.
Nick Chubb, one of the best breakaway rushers in the NFL, averaged 6.0 YPC on 72 attempts against stacked boxes, an impressive feat. Chubb remains a fantasy RB1 even with Kareem Hunt seeing significant volume in his own right.
Ronald Jones is viewed as the backup to Leonard Fournette, but Jones had an all-around solid 2020 campaign. His average here is boosted by his 98-yard TD run from Week 10, but that’s not a knock on him. 8-man boxes means there are fewer — if any — defenders at the second and third levels, so if an RB is able to break through the muck, taking it to the house is a very real possibility on these types of runs. Not every RB can do it.
Then we arrive at Derrick Henry, who went up against 8-man boxes on an insane 129 rushing attempts. And he averaged 5.5 YPC while doing it. What else is there to say about Henry? He pops in every rushing statistic you look at, no matter how you slice it. Even with limited passing usage, he’s one of the best fantasy bets each week.
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