Year of the Retread Quarterbacks

We’re still early in the feeling out phase of the season, but early signs may point to 2024 being the Year of the Retread Quarterbacks.

That’s the connective tissue binding this year’s biggest storylines together after three weeks. Three of the five remaining undefeated teams are being led by quarterbacks who washed out of previous starting gigs. Geno Smith won Comeback Player of the Year two years ago, cast off by the Jets before reviving his career in Seattle. Sam Darnold also was a disaster for the Jets, and then also the Panthers, but has some questioning if the 3-0 Vikings really need J.J. McCarthy, anyway. And in a battle of castoffs in Pittsburgh, it’s Justin Fields who has, at least for the moment, seized the reigns and once again looks like at least a passable starting quarterback.

And it’s not just at the tippy-top, either. Derek Carr looked unstoppable (until the Saints were, uh, stopped). Baker Mayfield continues to roll in Tampa Bay. Andy Dalton has emerged from the bench to make the Panthers look like an actual NFL team. You can even stretch the definition slightly and group in Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, rehabbing from injuries in their first full years starting for new teams. All in all, 13 of the 34 qualified quarterbacks so far this season have been a qualified starter for another team in the past.

That’s a lot, right? It seems like a lot. Especially for this early in the season, before a lot of injuries or benchings can cause teams to look around and see who has a helmet and a basic knowledge of football to get them through the rest of the year. But it is a stat out of context. Do you know how many retread quarterbacks there were last year? What about in 2007? What about on average? This is a stat that needs context, and it’s not something you normally have top-of-mind. Fortunately, it is something we can look up, and then put in a big table, and then go “ooh, a big table” as we all learn something together.

We’re counting a “retread quarterback” here as any quarterback who had a qualified season for another team in the past; at least 200 pass attempts. This is admittedly a very broad brush, and it’s silly to consider “Tom Brady, Buccaneer” or “Drew Brees, Saint” the same as “Sam Darnold, Viking.” At the same time, it’s not much sillier to include them than it is to include Rodgers or Cousins in a new place. Also, it has the benefit of being objective – no decision to be made about whether a player was a full-on retread or just a free agent on the move. And it doesn’t heavily weight the data in one direction or another; there’s not a big cluster of Hall of Famers on second teams somewhere that would unfairly unbalance things.

Note: All DYAR totals in this article refer to qualified seasons only.

We’re cresting a wave!

Thirteen retread QBs is a lot – it’s already tied for the second-most since realignment, and we’re not even out of September yet. It’s interesting also to note that this is cyclical, with a rise in second-chance quarterbacks between 2010-2015, falling back down from 2016-2019, and picking up again since then. That could be random noise, as we’re talking about five or six extra teams going with a veteran rather than one of their own developed players. But it could also be a response to the quality of quarterback drafts we’ve had. That first up period saw first-round disappointments like Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden and EJ Manuel enter the league. And, in recent years, we’ve had some pretty sorry quarterback classes in 2021 and 2022, which is why Jacoby Brissett is starting instead of Mac Jones, Andy Dalton is starting instead of Bryce Young, and Justin Fields is starting instead of Kenny Pickett. There’s not enough there for me to say yes, this is definitively a response to draft picks washing out, but it makes logical sense that the more you hit on your own draft picks, the less you have to look around and try to come up with a plan B.

We’re defining “top retread” in terms of passing DYAR, which is why Aaron Rodgers (217) is currently in first, but that’s as much a factor of volume as anything else. Dalton and Carr both have higher DVOAs through three weeks, with Darnold not too far behind. If all four could somehow keep up their high DVOAs, that would also be unprecedented. We’ve never had a year with four retread quarterbacks with passing DVOAs over 20%. We’ve had some years with three such players – Trent Green, Jake Plummer and Trent Green in 2003 and Peyton Manning, Josh McCown and Drew Brees in 2013. Four would be unprecedented – and also unlikely, as three weeks is such a small sample size. All things being equal, you would expect career history to come calling for some of the more surprising quarterbacks this season. For now, though, things are going really smoothly.

And when you combine large volume with high efficiency, you get a potentially record-setting year. This year’s retread quarterbacks are on pace for 6,409 DYAR, which would break 2013’s record of 6,249. Some of that is the 17th game, but without it, it would still be on pace to top every other year in our data, going back to 1979. And that’s with Jared Goff getting off to a middling start, and before a potential Deshaun Watson benching/suspension/whatever is going on over there stems the bleeding of the worst passer of the year. That could mitigate some of the drop-off from a Darnold or a Carr if they can’t maintain their hot pace throughout the course of the year.

Like 2024, 2013’s numbers were helped out by a surprising, out-of-nowhere top season from a retread. That was Josh McCown’s big year, entering halfway through the season for an injured Jay Cutler – 1,829 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception in 224 attempts over eight games, five as a starter. That was good for 659 DYAR, a 32.1% passing DVOA, and one of the all-time flukey seasons in NFL history. It turns out, a 0.4% interception percentage was not sustainable. Who knew? But McCown’s performance helped push 2013’s retreads over 6,000 passing DYAR for the first time in league history. OK, an MVP season from Peyton Manning probably helped some, too, but it was a team effort.

McCown was definitely a one hit wonder, and as such holds an interesting place in DVOA history. Looking at just qualified seasons, McCown has the biggest qualified year-over-year jump in NFL history for a player who switched teams, going from the 2007 Raiders to the 2013 Bears (with no qualified seasons in between) and seeing his DVOA jump from -32.9% to 32.1%. And then he signed as a free agent with Tampa Bay and had the biggest year-over-year fall in NFL history for a player who switched teams, falling from 32.1% to -41.9%. Josh McCown: the Alpha and Omega of retread quarterbacks.

That’s a list that screams caution, even as guys like Darnold have started off hot in their new uniforms. McCown isn’t the only one-hit wonder on it; Vikings fans remember the sudden rise and equally sudden fall of Case Keenum, and there was no Billy Joe renaissance in New Orleans. Erik Kramer’s 29-touchdown season in 1995 never came close to happening again, though he remained a decent option for several years afterwards. Boomer Esiason was one last gasp of relevance from an ‘80s star who never quite translated into the ‘90s. Even if one of this year’s surprises ends up placing high on this list – Darnold would need an 11.8% DVOA to enter the top 10 and a 33.4% DVOA to top McCown; Fields would need 22.7% and 44.3% — that would be far from a guarantee of success in the future. Don’t sell those J.J. McCarthy stocks just yet.

Darnold, especially, is trying to travel some very shaky ground. He has started his career with four qualified seasons with a negative passing DVOA. That’s usually a death sentence for a quarterback’s career; only six passers have started with a streak that long and gone on to have any above-average passing seasons: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Vinny Testaverde, Randall Cunningham, Jake Plummer, Alex Smith and Marc Wilson. Even worse, all four of Darnold’s qualifying seasons have been very bad, with him topping out as a rookie at -15.2%. If we limit our criteria to quarterbacks with four double-digit negative DVOA seasons, that limits us to just Smith and Wilson. And since Wilson only had one surprise positive DVOA finish in a strange half-season in strike-shortened 1987, that basically leaves Smith as the only one who has successfully navigated the path Darnold is trying to walk. Quarterbacks do not look as bad as Darnold did from the beginning and then magically recover to become even a passible passer.

And yet, it’s September, the Vikings are 3-0 and it’s time to dream. Maybe Darnold really was ruined by the Jets, like Geno Smith before him. Maybe these three games, unlike his hot start in Carolina two years ago, are the beginning of something new. Maybe one day, Darnold will be able to add his list to the most successful quarterback retreads of all time – the passers who, despite playing at below-replacement level in their previous stops, found success when they found the right home.

Darnold isn’t the next Steve Young (citation needed). But maybe he’s the next Geno Smith, and maybe the Vikings are playoff-bound as a result.