Fantasy Football Rookie QB Tiers 1.0

The 2022 NFL Draft features a very interesting crop of rookie quarterbacks. While there’s certainly the potential for future fantasy football standouts in this bunch, this year’s class does not rival some of the recent groups of signal-callers to enter the league. At the same time, we’re not talking about a 2013 draft class of disappointments. 

To get an initial handle on this group, I broke them down into tiers. Keep in mind that this is only the first step in a very lengthy process of evaluation that will unfold over the next two-and-a-half months. A lot can, and likely will, change in the runup to the NFL Draft, and then we’ll likely have to re-order again after the draft. But for now, here’s how things shake out.

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Fantasy Football Rookie QB Tiers

Tier 1 – High-Ceiling Fantasy QBs

Malik Willis

While there’s plenty of debate around which quarterback will come off the board first in the draft, it’s fairly clear that Willis offers the highest long-term fantasy ceiling. Of course, this is one of the biggest points of departure between the scouting/draft crowd and the fantasy football crowd. Draft spot is not destiny in fantasy football, and it’s largely a waste of time to fixate on where a player is selected. As far as Willis is concerned, his build and dual-threat capability is reminiscent of Steve McNair. However, it’s fair to argue that Willis possesses a bigger arm than McNair. If he hits, Willis’ game is tailor made for modern fantasy football.

Tier 2 – QB2-Plus Fantasy Potential

Matt Corral

Desmond Ridder

Sam Howell

Kenny Pickett

This next group of signal-callers all possess the requisite skill sets to potentially emerge as future fantasy options if the opportunity presents itself. Corral ticks the box for athleticism and possesses an NFL arm. Ridder has mobility and showed quick decision-making at Cincinnati. Howell doesn’t wow you with dual-threat, but he can spin it with the best of them, especially downfield. Pickett benefited from not entering the draft last year and is arguably the most accurate of the bunch. Of course, the key with this group isn’t how I view them for fantasy purposes. It’s how NFL teams view them. If tapped for a starting job, the fantasy potential is very real for all four players. But we often see similar caliber players who get pegged as long-term backups. The good news is that the draft will give us an indication of how they’re viewed based on where they’re each selected.

Tier 3 – The Dark Horse Fantasy QBs

Carson Strong

Bailey Zappe

Though unlikely to ever be fantasy options, this duo at least deserves some dark-horse consideration. Strong is a throwback quarterback who looks the part from a size and arm strength standpoint. But like quarterbacks from a bygone era, he lacks the mobility of a modern NFL signal-caller. Think Drew Bledsoe. As for Zappe, he’s coming off of one of the biggest statistical seasons in FBS history where he broke the single-season records for passing yards and passing touchdowns. Of course, box score scouting is a massive mistake for college prospects, so we need to take these accomplishments with a grain of salt. Zappe leaves the college ranks with an impressive resume, but his arm strength is a huge question mark.

Tier 4 – The Also-Ran Fantasy QBs

• E.J. Perry
• Dustin Crum
• Jack Coan
• Skylar Thompson
• Kaleb Eleby
• Brock Purdy

Some, if not most, of these guys won’t get drafted. And it’s extremely unlikely that any of them emerge as viable fantasy starters for any sustained period of time.