Fantasy football preview for Week 2

Week 1 if the 2021 NFL and fantasy football season is just about in the books, and we learned a lot. And while there is still plenty to sort out, it is never a bad idea to begin to look ahead at the upcoming week.

So as soon as things wrap up every week, we’ll preview the upcoming week based on some things we learned from the week before. 

Let’s get after it.

The San Francisco 49ers backfield

Per usual, the 49ers backfield is in flux. Raheem Mostert entered the season as the starting running back and was set for a productive 2021 debut against the Detroit Lions Sunday. However, Mostert left the game with a knee injury and did not return. In his absence, it was not rookie Trey Sermon who took over at running back, as he was a surprise healthy scratch. As a result, fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell operated as the lead back, handling 19 of the 22 running back carries, rushing for 104 yards and a touchdown. After the game, head coach Kyle Shanahan stated that both Mitchell and Jamycal Hasty beat out Sermon during training camp, which led to his absence. If Mostert is forced to miss time, Mitchell has the combination of size and speed to handle a lead back role, just as he did Sunday afternoon. He is a must-add in all formats to begin the week and will be on the low-end RB2 radar if Mostert is out of the San Francisco lineup. As for Sermon, I wouldn’t drop him just yet, but this obviously isn’t an ideal start to his NFL career.

Detroit’s target distribution

As expected, the Lions were playing from behind against San Francisco Sunday, which led to 57 pass attempts from Jared Goff. And in Goff fashion, he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt, as he constantly targeted T.J. Hockenson or checked it down to his running backs. In fact, D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams were responsible for nearly 36% of the Lions’ targets in this game. In 2020, despite playing in a far better offense with the Rams, Goff averaged just 6.2 intended air yards per pass attempt (fifth worst), while his 5.98-yard average depth of target was the second-lowest mark among qualified quarterbacks. In this offense, I expect Goff to once again be near the bottom of the league in those categories. Looking ahead, both Swift and Williams will be plenty involved and in PPR leagues, Swift still has immense upside (he caught eight passes today) and they face a Packers team that allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (47.8) and fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in 2020. 

Avoid the Texans backfield in Week 2

For what will perhaps be the only time all year long, the Houston Texans dominated a football game from start to finish. Even against the Jaguars, it was shocking to see the Texans with a convincing 37-21 victory, which allowed them to lean on the run. Mark Ingram, who emerged as the starting running back in the preseason, led the way with a whopping 26 carries, while leading the backfield in snaps. The Texans still used David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay plenty in this game, while the former was the clear running back on passing downs. I don’t think I’m breaking any news by saying that the gamescript will be completely opposite most weeks for Houston, starting in Week 2 against a very good Cleveland Browns defensive front.

Jerry Jeudy to miss some time

Jerry Jeudy was in the middle of a fantastic Week 1 contest, hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards. Unfortunately, his ankle got trapped under a defender, resulting in a nasty-looking injury. The sophomore wideout was carted off the field and X-rays were negative, though Jeudy does have a high-ankle sprain, which are usually 4- to 6-week injuries. Assuming Jeudy misses time, more will be asked of Courtland Sutton, who was quiet in Week 1 but faces a Jacksonville team that allowed a league-worst 10 different receivers to reach 100 yards a season ago and already allowed Brandin Cooks to accomplish that feat here in 2021. Meanwhile, Tim Patrick would become a very viable DFS value play and a waiver wire target in deeper leagues where you start three receivers.