Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: James Robinson)
Fantasy football value 2021 – James Robinson
James Robinson went undrafted in the NFL Draft and most fantasy drafts in 2020. And that was clearly a mistake.
(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)
The Jacksonville running back put together the best rookie season ever by an undrafted running back last year, rushing for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns on 240 carries. He also added 49 catches for 344 yards and an additional three touchdowns while missing two games. The Jaguars certainly didn’t expect Robinson to be as involved as he was during his rookie year. But the team moved on from Leonard Fournette, while backups Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo dealt with injuries and COVID-19, thrusting Robinson into not just a role, but a massive one. Robinson averaged 17.1 carries and 3.5 receptions per game last year, while he handled a whopping 86% of Jacksonville’s running back carries. Backup running backs Dare Ogunbowale and Chris Thompson combined for just 39 carries and 30 receptions all year long. And from Week 3 on, Robinson handled at least 70% of his team’s carries in every single game, proving to be an absolute workhorse.
Despite missing two games, Robinson was ninth among all running backs in snaps (261) and sixth in carries (240). He finished as the RB7 in fantasy, while only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones averaged more fantasy points per game than Robinson. Robinson played fantastic football last year, ranking 13th in yards after contact per attempt (3.18) while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, his 31 rushes of 10-plus yards were good for the fifth most in the NFL. But volume was clearly on his side over the course of his rookie season, and it is fair to wonder how much of that volume will be there in 2021.
Jacksonville has a new regime led by new head coach Urban Meyer, who brought in both Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde during the offseason. Of course, we received the unfortunate news Tuesday that Etienne’s rookie season has ended before it began after suffering a foot injury in Week 2 of the preseason. Etienne hadn’t been playing much in the preseason, but it was entirely possible that the rookie would get it going in the season and earn more snaps, especially on passing downs. Robinson was 11th among all running backs in pass routes a season ago (286), so it is entirely possible he is the pass-catcher again in this offense. However, Hyde has been playing a lot of snaps with the first-team offense during the preseason and he obviously has history with Meyer. Hyde is going to see way more carries than any backup saw for the Jaguars last year and likely flirts with 100 totes, which is enough for me not to move Robinson back up into the RB1 range even with the Etienne injury.
Check out our Eliot Crist’s instant reaction to the Etienne/Robinson news Tuesday:
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – James Robinson
You can look at Robinson’s fantasy football ADP now, but it is obviously going to change over the next few days. At the moment, he is being drafted as the RB26, but I expect that to skyrocket. Robinson will more than likely come off the board as a top-20 running back now — in a draft I was in this week, Robinson was drafted at the end of the third round, though this draft was in progress when the Etienne news broke. I view Robinson as a late-fourth-round selection at the moment, but there are going to be plenty of drafts where he comes off the board well before that, which is certainly understandable.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
NFL fantasy football ranking – James Robinson
The majority of FTN’s consensus rankings have been updated, and Robinson comes in as the RB23 in half PPR formats. However, that will also climb once every analyst updates their ranks. I personally moved him up to RB19, which is up seven or eight spots from before. He is now firmly in the range of Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift, and if you prefer Robinson over any of those running backs, I absolutely get it. While I am not moving Robinson into the top-12 among running backs, there is no denying that he needs to climb in seemingly everyone’s ranks. He won’t match his 2020 numbers, especially with Hyde taking snaps and carries away from him, but Robinson is a relatively safe player in the fourth or fifth round.
