Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Calvin Ridley)
Fantasy football value 2021 – Calvin Ridley
Fresh off the most productive season in his young NFL career (career highs in targets, receptions and yards, one touchdown shy of the 10 he scored as a rookie), Calvin Ridley has become an elite fantasy football option. Ridley will head into his fourth season at the age of 26 in a Falcons’ offense that lacks depth at wide receiver. With the departure of Julio Jones, Ridley is left as the clear-cut No. 1 receiving option. There are 68 vacant targets from last season that Jones left behind in just nine games played. Ridley was able to out-target him on a per-game basis, piling up 143 over the course of 15 games, seventh most among wide receivers. Ridley was able to turn these targets into 1,374 receiving yards, fourth most. His reception percentage was lower than most toward the top, but he made it count when the ball was in his hands. There were a total of seven games that Ridley played without Jones — in those, he totaled 79 targets, 50 receptions, 759 yards and 3 scores. Over a full 16-game season, those numbers would have given Ridley a line of 114/1,734/7 and made him the fantasy WR2.
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With Jones now out of the picture, it will be rookie tight end Kyle Pitts primarily battling Ridley for targets. The Falcons used the fourth pick in this year’s NFL Draft to bring in the former Florida Gator. When it comes to the wide receivers on the depth chart, Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus will be next in line behind Ridley. Gage is expected to be a top-three target on the Falcons, as he saw 109 last season. This is a Falcons offense that is expected to remain pass-heavy. In 2020, they attempted the fourth-most passes (628). The Falcons were also one of just 13 teams with a passing rate over 60%. In 2019, the Falcons had the highest percentage of passing plays, at 67%. They did bring in running back Mike Davis this offseason as a free agent, but he shouldn’t have much effect on the pass volume in this offense. Ridley is locked into a safe role as the top target in a pass-friendly environment.
Diving into some of the advanced receiving stats, Ridley found himself near the top of most categories. Of all receivers with at least 65 targets last season, Ridley had the third-highest average depth of target (14.13 yards). He also had the second-most end-zone targets (16), with six resulting in a score. Most impressive, though, were his market share stats. No wide receiver in the NFL had more air yards last season than Ridley’s 2,409 — 283 more than second-place Tyreek Hill. Ridley had a 44% share of the Falcons’ total air yards in 2020, the league’s second-highest percentage behind only Baltimore’s Marquise Brown. Ridley was one of just four wide receivers to see over 40% of their team’s air yards. In terms of total target share, Ridley ranked 12th in the league with 23%. Gage was second on the team seeing just under 20% with Hayden Hurst next at 14%. While Ridley’s 23% is a decent share, we should fully expect him to push upward of 30% in 2021.
He is currently projected 281.5 fantasy points in PPR for this upcoming season. This places Ridley just inside the top five wide receivers. FTN has him projected for 1,361 receiving yards, the second most among wide receivers. In non-PPR leagues, Ridley has the third-highest projection thanks to his yardage and touchdown upside. Needless to say, Ridley is in a prime spot to post some big numbers this season.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Calvin Ridley
Per the FTN Fantasy ADP tool, Ridley is being drafted as the sixth wide receiver off the board. He has an ADP of 22.84, which places him right at the back end of the second round. Of the players above him, Tyreek Hill is the only receiver with an ADP in the first round. The other five are just ahead of Ridley by a few spots scattered throughout the second round. With most drafts being RB-heavy early on, it leaves this range as a hotspot for the receivers in this range. It really comes down to preference at this point. Ridley’s ADP did see a slight jump from June to July following the Julio Jones news. In June, he had an ADP of 23.33; this number got to 22.84 in July. This was a difference of 0.49, the biggest rise of any wide receiver inside the top 30 picks. When we see the departure of a high-profile player like Julio, the ADP is going to move. As targets go away, they have to be taken over by someone. That someone just so happens to be Ridley. Heading into draft month (August), we should expect Ridley’s ADP to slowly climb. His stock can’t rise a whole lot more, so a substantial jump isn’t in the picture. But we could see Ridley push his way as high as the fourth wide receiver by month’s end.
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NFL fantasy football ranking – Calvin Ridley
FTN Fantasy currently has Calvin Ridley ranked inside the five wide receivers. Across all formats, the lowest rank any FTN analyst has for him is fifth. As we proceed through the month of August, I’d expect Ridley to remain right where he’s at. There is a tier break right at WR5, so Ridley shouldn’t drop below guys like DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen or A.J. Brown.
