Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 16

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 16

1. Trey McBride Has Accounted for 39.1% of Arizona’s Targets Inside the 10-yard line

The good news? That’s the third-highest rate in football this season. The bad news? It hasn’t resulted in a single receiving touchdown for McBride, who is way past due to find the end zone. He also has 31% of the team’s red zone targets, the second-highest rate behind only Drake London 36.7% of the first-read targets in the red zone have gone McBride’s way, too. A matchup with the Carolina Panthers could be what the doctor ordered, as Carolina has allowed a whopping 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. And they have been hurt by tight ends that are nowhere near as talented or involved as McBride. We’re talking about Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, Adam Trautman, Noah Gray and Grant Calcaterra. This has to be the week McBride finds the end zone, right?

2. The Lions Are Allowing 27.9 Rushing Yards per Game to Opposing QBs (4th Most)

For over two years now, Detroit has struggled to limit the rushing production of opposing quarterbacks. This year has been no different. They are allowing about 28 rushing yards per game to the position, the fourth most in the league, and recently have been crushed on the ground by Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams, who rushed for 39 yards back on Thanksgiving. Since Thomas Brown took over as the Bears’ playcaller, there has been more of an emphasis on getting Williams outside the pocket. He is averaging nearly 35 rushing yards per game in this new offense and now faces a man coverage-heavy Detroit defense that bleeds rushing yards to quarterbacks. And given all the injuries to the Lions defense right now, this looks like a pretty advantageous matchup for Williams.

3. Tight Ends Have a 33% Target Share in Mac Jones’ Starts

Brenton Strange is looking like the most popular tight end streaming option this week. And for good reason. With Evan Engram out last week, Strange stepped in and caught 11-of-12 targets, while logging 82% of the snaps and running a route on about 86% of dropbacks. Don’t expect 12 targets again, but expect plenty. We know Doug Pederson’s offenses have historically been tight end friendly, and that has certainly been the case when Mac Jones has been under center this season. In games with Jones playing quarterback, tight ends have a 33% target share for Jacksonville. And if you combine Engram and Strange’s targets per game in those contests, you’re looking at over 10 targets per contest. With a matchup against a Raiders defense coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points (15.6) and fourth-most receiving yards (65.6) per game to opposing tight ends, Strange looks like a great play this week.

4. Amari Cooper Ran a Route on Just 41.6% of Dropbacks in Week 15

The Bills have used a rotation at wide receiver all year long, and with Keon Coleman back last week, that only continued. As a result, Cooper only ran a route on 41.6% of dropbacks, while logging less than 50% of the snaps. Cooper, Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel all saw the field, while Buffalo also ran plenty of plays with Reggie Gilliam at fullback, limiting the snaps for all wideouts at times. Between the lack of playing time and a matchup with Christian Gonzalez, Cooper is an easy player to bench this week, and very possibly the rest of the way.

5. Pat Freiermuth Has a 17.6% Target Share Over the Last 2 Weeks

Why do the last two weeks matter for Freiermuth? Because the Steelers have been without George Pickens during that stretch, which has resulted in an uptick in targets for Freiermuth. His 17.6% target share without Pickens is way up from his target share of 12.2% through Week 1-13 (with Pickens healthy). Pickens has already been ruled out and Freiermuth has now found the end zone in three consecutive contests, making him a low-end TE1 against Baltimore’s vulnerable pass defense.