Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 12
1. Caleb Williams Averaged 2.1 Seconds to Throw in Week 11
It was way down from his Week 1-10 average of 2.7 seconds, as new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown made it a point of emphasis to get the ball out of Williams’ hands faster. His average depth of target also dropped from 8.0 yards to 6.7, and he posted 212 air yards, down from his regular season average of 263 air yards per game. 23 of Williams’ pass attempts Sunday were quick release throws, which is also up from his season-long average of 16 such passes per game. The Bears also got Williams out of the pocket more, calling four designed runs for him. Chicago’s offense looked better than it has in weeks and continuing to get the ball out of Williams’ hands quickly will be paramount against a Minnesota Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (42.1%).
2. Jaylen Waddle Is Averaging Just 4.3 Targets Per Game with Tua Tagovailoa
That ranks fourth on the Dolphins during that span. With the uptick in pass game usage from De’Von Achane, it was taking shape that Waddle was suddenly the No. 3 pass-catcher in this offense. However, Jonnu Smith’s recent involvement has pushed Waddle to the No. 4, which is obviously a concerning development for someone drafted in the first five rounds of fantasy drafts over the summer. The concern I’ve always had with Waddle is that he rarely sees the layup targets in an offense that usually does a terrific job of creating them. Tyreek Hill usually gets the pre-snap motion looks, while Smith and Achane see a lot of the screen targets. In fact, Waddle has just three targets all year when in motion at the snap, well below both Hill, Smith and Achane. He also has just five screen targets, which means he continues to rely on the deep passing plays. That wouldn’t have been a problem last year but in 2024, the Dolphins aren’t taking as many shots down the field. Tua Tagovailoa is sporting the league’s second-lowest deep passing rate (7.8%), down from his 11.4% rate in 2023. He’s also averaging nearly 2.5 fewer passes per game off post routes this season, which has been the route where Waddle has done the most of his damage.
3. Tommy DeVito Posted a 16% Checkdown Rate in 2023
It’ll be DeVito, not Drew Lock, starting at quarterback for the Giants. This will obviously impact the offense, but especially for running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. The rookie has emerged as the Giants led running back since Week 5, averaging around 19 touches per game. However, during that same span, the talented pass-catcher ranks just 26th among all running backs in target share (7.5%), as Daniel Jones ranks 33rd among 38 qualified signal callers in checkdown rate this season (8.9%). With DeVito under center, we could see more passes headed Tracy’s way going forward.
4. Jauan Jennings ranks 5th Among Wide Receivers in Third Down Catches (17)
It is even more impressive when you consider Jennings has only played eight games. “Third and Jauan” is legit, as Jennings also ranks top-15 in the league in EPA/TGT on third down this season (1.08). He continues to thrive when given more opportunities, quietly becoming the WR1 for San Francisco. Since returning from a hip injury two weeks ago, Jennings has accounted for 22 of San Francisco’s 62 targets, giving him a whopping 35.4% target share during that span. And in games where he’s seen at least six targets this season, Jennings is averaging 24.9 PPR points per game. He’s a must-start wide receiver to end the season.
5. The Broncos Are Allowing the 4th-Most Catches (5.7) and 5th-Most Receiving Yards (42.3) Per Game to RBs
Listen. Six teams are on bye, which means someone like Ameer Abdullah (yes, him) becomes somewhat fantasy relevant this week. Of course, it would require Alexander Mattison and Zamir White — neither has practiced — to miss this game. But if that happens, Abdullah would likely operate as the 1A for the Raiders. He’ll have a role in the passing game, too, while the Broncos are coughing up the fourth-most receptions (5.7), sixth-most targets (6.9) and fifth-most receiving yards (42.3) per game to opposing backfields this season. I’m not saying. I’m just saying.
