Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Super Bowl

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. That’s especially true for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So each Friday, I’ve through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football in the Conference Championship Round

1. The Chiefs Allowed 25.5 Rushing Yards Per Game to Opposing QBs This Season

It was the seventh most in all of football, and the trend of Kansas City allowing rushing production to signal callers continued into the playoffs. The Chiefs allowed 42 rushing yards to C.J. Stroud and another 40 to Josh Allen. When you play as much man coverage as Kansas City does (57.5%), you are susceptible to some large gains on the ground if a quarterback gets outside the pocket since the defenders all have their backs turned. And when these teams met in the Super Bowl a few years ago, Jalen Hurts ran for 70 yards and three touchdowns.

2. Kansas City Posted the 4th-Lowest Avoided Tackle Rate (14.6%)

You aren’t going to shut down Saquon Barkley. He’s simply too good. But limiting him could be the key to this game and the Chiefs have shown that they may be able to do just that. During the regular season, they posted the league’s fourth-lowest avoided tackle rate (14.6%), while their 10% explosive run rate against is the seventh-lowest rate. Kansas City’s secondary is really good at stepping up and making tackles, which could be a key component in this matchup.

3. DeVonta Smith Averaged 0.723 EPA/TGT vs. the Blitz This Season

That was good for the ninth-best mark among all wide receivers during the regular season. It is obviously very notable when you are set to face a Steve Spagnuolo defense. We know the Chiefs blitz as much as anyone in football and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs where they are blitzing over 40% of the time. Smith should see plenty of coverage from Chamarri Conner, who is allowing 1.21 yards per coverage route, the most among all defensive backs in this game.

4. Xavier Worthy Is Averaging 9.8 Opportunities Per Game Since Week 13

I obviously removed Week 18 when the Chiefs starters didn’t play. Worthy’s role continues to grow, as Kansas City is finding multiple ways to get him the football each week. He’s averaged about 10 opportunities (carries + targets) per game since Week 13, while operating out of the backfield about five percent of the time during that span. Only Puka Nacua has more targets off screen passes during that stretch than Worthy’s 17, while his 10 targets coming from pre-snap motion lead the league. His floor is suddenly very high, and the way he’s utilized in this offense makes a matchup with a stout Philadelphia pass defense a lot less worrying.

5. The Chiefs Allowed the Most Receiving Yards Per Game to TEs (70.1)

The middle of the field has been an area to attack Kansas City’s defense all season long, whether it has been to slot wide receivers or tight ends. No team allowed more yards per game to tight ends this season, while also coughing up the second-most receptions (6.2) and seventh-most targets (8.0) per game to the position. Dallas Goedert is averaging six targets per game during the postseason, but don’t be surprised if he’s closer to eight or nine targets Sunday.