Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Are You Overvaluing 2024?

Obviously, the fantasy football drafting community is reactionary. We have to be. Last year, we drafted Brian Thomas Jr. as the WR48 in PPR leagues, because by and large we didn’t see his huge rookie season coming. This year, because we saw something and reacted, he’s WR8 in early ADP.

But what if we take it too far?

For example, from 2017 to 2019, Zach Ertz finished as TE3, TE2 and TE4 in PPR. And so from 2018 to 2020 (i.e., each year-after), he was drafted as TE3, TE2 and TE4. We saw him produce and said “Yep, we like that.” But then in 2020, Ertz dealt with injury and had his worst season when he was on the field, producing TE31 numbers. He was about to turn 31. Dallas Goedert was rising. So heading into 2021, the drafting community decided he was falling off the map and drafted him as TE17.

In 2021, Zach Ertz finished as the TE5.

Sometimes a player falls off and that’s just it. Todd Gurley went from unstoppable Megazord to Atlanta Falcon to a Let’s Remember Some Guys all-star. So it’s not as simple as “If a guy was good before, he’ll be good again.” But I’ve long held the hypothesis that we could do perfectly well in fantasy if we just ignored what happened in the past year (with some exceptions).

That’s my exercise today. I’m drafting for 2025, but I’m ignoring 2024. Let’s see how it goes.

Drafting for 2025, Ignoring 2024

How do we do this? Well, really, it’s simple. Bring up 2024 ADP and enter a 2025 mock draft. Turn the brain off and go down last year’s draft board.

There are some minor adjustments I allowed myself to make:

• Rookies: Obviously, guys like Ashton Jeanty and Tetairoa McMillan weren’t in last year’s draft pool, so I allowed myself to draft a rookie in a spot where it made sense if need be.
• Retirements/injuries/suspensions: This might have had me taken someone like Derek Carr or Jonathon Brooks. Obviously, that’s not in the spirit of the exercise. So if a player retired, is unemployed or is out for all of the season (not a partial season, we have to more-or-less know it’s a full year), I could skip them.
• Positional need: Running backs fluctuate in value super often, so there’s a real chance I’d have taken like 11 in 16 rounds if I didn’t allow myself to select for position. So whenever I was at risk of overloading (and only dramatically so) at RB, I was allowed to skip to the next player at another position.

Other than that, it was brain off, draft on. How did it turn out? You decide.

The Roster

Normally, I’m not drafting multiple QBs and TEs in a 12-team PPR draft, but for this exercise it made sense. Let’s go by position and see how the team looks

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (9.06)
Anthony Richardson Sr., Indianapolis Colts (12.07)

I don’t hate it! Stroud is a prime bounceback candidate after an offensive line-induced sophomore slump. Maybe expecting his 2023 performance again is asking too much, but he should offer a relatively high floor. And while the current injury news surrounding Richardson is concerning, as the volatile half of a safe-and-upside QB duo, he could pay dividends when healthy.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (1.06)
Breece Hall, New York Jets (3.06)
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (4.07)
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (6.07)
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (13.06)

Here we have four guys who are entering the season as their team’s RB1, including one of the few guys with clear “best overall player in fantasy” potential in McCaffrey. There are questions surrounding Hall (Will Justin Fields steal his touches? How much work will Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis take?), Etienne (Is he the sure RB1, or are Tank Bigsby and/or Bhayshul Tuten going to take over?) and Pacheco (Is he healthy now, or is he the inefficient back we saw at the end of 2024?), but if things go right, this could very easily be the best RB group in a fantasy league.

Oh, and Zamir White is on the team. Hey, they can’t all be winners.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (2.07)
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (7.06)
Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders (8.07)
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (10.07)
Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears (14.07)

Getting so many running backs early meant I had to take a small hit at wide receiver, but even with that, I got another nice bounceback candidate in Hill, who at least still has the potential to go for 2,000 yards, even if we aren’t sold on that being his reality anymore. Olave is still the best game in town in New Orleans if healthy and a guy a rookie QB like Tyler Shough will want to lean on. Samuel appears set to be a very versatile weapon in Washington. Aiyuk will have to be a stash until his return from an ACL injury, but there’s upside when he’s back.

Burden is the one rookie I took in this exercise, as for whatever reason he fell a long way in this mock. If you feel it’s cheating to take him, Christian Kirk would have been the selection here, and while his floor is a zero, he has some ceiling.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (5.06)
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (11.06)

Kelce just had his worst full season, his first time since his one-snap rookie year with under 862 yards (he had 823) or 4 touchdowns (3). Despite that, he finished as the TE5 in PPR leagues thanks to 97 receptions. Sure, he’s way closer to the end of his career than the beginning, but with even a bit more touchdown luck in 2025, this is actually a nice little steal of a pick.

Kincaid was a disappointment last year after an explosive 73-catch, 673-yard rookie season, dropping to 44 and 448, respectively, and scoring only 2 touchdowns for the second straight year. But the Bills also didn’t do a lot at pass-catcher this offseason (unless you’re high man on Joshua Palmer), so most everything we liked about Kincaid a year ago is still in place. You could do way worse.

Kicker/Defense

Harrison Butker, Kansas City Chiefs (15.06)
Dallas Cowboys DST (16.07)

I might well take Butker in the second-to-last round this year even without the rules of this exercise in place. I … would not take the Cowboys defense. Whatever, I think finding defense value is out of the purview of this little game.

Conclusion

I love my running back room (I’m going to be close to high man on McCaffrey this year), and my quarterback duo brings huge potential (Stroud was QB5, Richardson QB6 in ADP a year ago). A Kelce/Kincaid pairing at tight end is also just fine in my book.

Receiver is where I’m a little at risk, with Hill my clear anchor and a huge question mark at age 31 and coming off a down year. Still, with one glaring exception (two, if you count the Cowboys DST), there’s not a pick in this exercise that I wouldn’t at least consider at that value in 2025. (Yes, Zamir White is the exception, but hey, stranger things have happened … right?)

In other words, no, you shouldn’t draft for 2025 as if 2024 never happened. But … I mean, you kind of could. This will not be the worst fantasy roster I have this year.