Fantasy Football ADP Droppers: Wide Receiver

We think we know, but we really don’t. 

Fantasy football are historic sufferers of recency bias. If a player failed to reach expectations the prior season, it is very difficult to support them again. 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

This will often result in players being unfairly being aggressively undervalued in the year following a disappointing performance. When you add in other confounding factors such as offensive line changes, fluid offensive weapons and the coaching carousel, a poor prior season can be dramatically suppressed down the ADP chain. 

Let’s take a closer look at which players are being selected well below last year’s fantasy finishes. Will these players definitely outperform their ADP? Uncertain, but it is a starting point for all fantasy drafters to consider when trying to mitigate their own recency bias symptoms. 

Last week, we took a look at the quarterback values and the running back values from last season’s end-of-year fantasy rankings. 

Next up? Wide Receivers.

2024 ADP Droppers: Wide Receiver

Mike Williams, New York Jets

This one takes a leap of faith. 

Williams only played in three games before tearing his ACL last year, but he still displayed that tantalizing upside. He improved his production each week, posted seven receptions, 121 receiving yards and a touchdown before leaving that third game with the injury. 

Therein lies the conundrum of Mike Williams. If healthy, massive production. 

His 13.6 fantasy points per game in a 0.5 PPR format ranked 12th among all wideouts last season. This year, he carries a bottom-barrel ADP of WR58, which is 46 spots below that short-term ranking from last season. As a comparison, last year’s WR58 in FPPG was Jerry Jeudy at just 7.2 FPPG. The prior two seasons, Williams played in at least 13 games and finished as the WR20 and WR13, easily crushing his current ADP at Underdog.

Residing in the New York Jets passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers is certainly a boost. If he stays healthy, Williams is undoubtedly one of the best fantasy values regardless of position. 

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen has the quietest 103-reception season in the history of football. 

Residing in a struggling Panthers offense, Thielen is again flying under the radar after finishing 13th in targets, ninth in receptions and first in slot snaps among all wide receivers, per FTN charting data. 

The Panthers significantly upgraded their receiving weapons for second-year quarterback Bryce Young, adding elite separator Diontae Johnson and trading up for explosive rookie Xavier Legette. But the market correction on Thielen is too much. 

Thielen finished as an overall WR3, ranking as the WR31 in 0.5 PPR formats. His current ADP of WR72 is silly, as he has never finished with fewer than 67 receptions in any game with at least 13 games played. 

For context, last year’s WR72 was Tutu Atwell at just 5.8 FPPG. At 33 years old, I firmly expect Thielen’s production to take a hit, but he will also have plenty of usable (WR3 or better) stat lines. In 2023, he posted six straight games of overall WR2 or better performances. 

Despite the increased target competition, Thielen is basically a free Best Ball wide receiver coming off a 100-catch season. I encourage all drafters to embrace the low-risk high-reward wideout. 

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers is a PPR machine, collecting 95 or more targets and posting 67 or more receptions in three straight seasons. He has finally shaken his aversion to touchdowns, increasing his from just 2 in 2021 to a career-high 8 last season. 

Meyers is another wide receiver who sees an ADP drop due to uncertainty at the quarterback position. The Raiders were unable to draft Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix, entering this season with two uninspiring options: Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. But when you realize that Meyers has been catching the majority of his passes from Mac Jones and O’Connell the last three seasons, there is no reason for him to carry an ADP that is 34 spots lower (WR59) than his WR25 overall finish last season. 

Per FTN charting data, Meyers ranked top-20 in catch rate among wide receivers with at least 100 targets and 21st in total routes run despite playing one fewer game than most starting wideouts. 

The presence of Davante Adams always limits Meyers’ upside, but he will certainly outperform his current ADP, with massive upside if the Adams trade rumors actually come to fruition. 

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

Death, taxes, and Amari Cooper finishing as an overall WR2 or better. 

The 30-year-old Browns wideout has been the model of consistency over his nine-year NFL career. He has seen 108 or more targets and 68 or more receptions in his last five campaigns with 1,100 yards or more in four of those five seasons. Cooper has registered five or more touchdowns in every single NFL season, with seven or more scores in five of his last seven years. 

It’s hard to envision Cooper seeing worse quarterback play than 2023, where he worked with the fantastic quartet of Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite the disaster under center Cooper battled his way to three top-10 finishes, including a massive 51.5 fantasy-point performance in Week 16 of the best ball playoffs. 

Cooper’s inconsistent weekly production only translated to 12.7 FPPG, but his WR17 ranking is 12 spots better than his current WR29 ADP on Underdog. 

Cooper ranked third overall with 17.4 yards per reception, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk and George Pickens among wideouts with at least 100 targets. Imagine what Cooper could do this season if Watson actually resembles his three-time Pro-Bowl level from 2018 to 2020.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

The fantasy community is bearish on all Panthers after last season’s dismal 2-15 finish. But that’s exactly when seasonal fantasy value exists. 

Johnson joins a Carolina team with new head coach Dave Canales, looking to maximize the skill set of sophomore quarterback Bryce Young. While the 2023 season wasn’t kind to most receivers in the Pittsburgh offense, Johnson still posted 13.9 yards per reception, which ranked 16th among wide receivers, per FTN charting data. His competition for targets is rookie Xavier Legette and 34-year-old Adam Thielen. 

I have my doubts on Legette’s rookie impact, and are therefore bullish on Young’s established connection with Thielen and his new lead wide receiver, Johnson. Canales had massive success rejuvenating the careers of Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. I project a similar result with Young, who will utilize Johnson’s elite ability to separate from defenders. With the overall RB8 and RB22 on his resume, there is clear evidence that Johnson can produce when utilized properly. Going outside the top-36 wide receivers (WR44) on Underdog, I’m bullish on the upside for the new Carolina WR1.