Fantasy Football ADP Droppers: Running Back

We think we know, but we really don’t. 

Fantasy football managers are historic sufferers of recency bias. If a player failed to reach expectations the prior season, it is very difficult to support them again. 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

This will often result in players being unfairly being aggressively undervalued in the year following a disappointing performance. When you add in other confounding factors such as offensive line changes, fluid offensive weapons and the coaching carousel, a poor prior season can be dramatically suppressed down the ADP chain. 

Let’s take a closer look at which players are being selected well below last year’s fantasy finishes. Will these players definitely outperform their ADP? Uncertain, but it is a starting point for all fantasy drafters to consider when trying to mitigate their own recency bias symptoms. 

Last week, we took a look at the quarterback values from last season’s end-of-year fantasy rankings. 

Next up? Running Backs

2024 ADP Droppers: Running Back

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

I fully understand the reluctance to invest in Raheem Mostert coming off a career season, but his ADP is ludicrous. 

Mostert scored 18 of his 32 career touchdowns last season, reaching 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his nine-year NFL career. He is 32 years old and played six games without dynamic rookie De’Von Achane on the field. When Achane shared the backfield with Mostert, the veteran saw 12.9 percent fewer rushing yards and 6.8 percent fewer touchdowns, per FTN charting data. 

Miami signed Mostert to a one-year, $4.1M contract extension, with $3.7M guaranteed for the upcoming season. He finished as the overall RB3 in FPPG last season, but is currently being drafted as the RB28 on Underdog. Last year’s overall RB28 was Najee Harris, which seems like his absolute floor in a worst-case scenario where Achane takes over the majority of backfield touches. In a best-case scenario? He’s the biggest fantasy football value of the 2024 season. 

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner clearly has offended the majority of the fantasy community in a past life. Nothing else can explain his annual appearance in “biggest value” columns across the industry. The 29-year-old rusher finished last season as the overall RB10, posting over 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career with nine total touchdowns in just 13 games. But therein lies the issue: the missed games. 

Conner has failed to appear in more than 13 games in five of his seven NFL seasons, including three of his last four campaigns. However, when he is on the field, he ranks among the elite running backs in overall usage. His 16 carries per game ranked inside the top seven running backs, and he was one of only four running backs with at least 150 carries to average at least 5.0 yards per carry. 

Conner has finished as the overall RB13 or better in three straight seasons, and finished last season with an astounding five straight RB1 performances. He is currently the RB27 on Underdog, not even being drafted as an RB2. 

James Conner. The epitome of great running back value. 

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Uncertain quarterback situations lead to suppressed ADPs. The future of Alvin Kamara in New Orleans is cloudy, which translates into nice fantasy value for the 28-year-old rusher for the Saints. 

Kamara is an elite pass-catching running back, averaging 72.1 receptions over his seven-year career. He ranked second at the position in targets (87) despite being suspended three games to start the season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, There are legitimate concerns about Kamara’s rushing efficiency, which has produced below a 4.0 YPC average in two of the last three seasons, which has accompanied a precipitous three-year decline in his yards per reception average (9.3 to 6.2). 

Despite all of these concerns, Kamara finished as the overall RB5 in 0.5 PPR formats and the actual RB3 in full PPR scoring leagues. Kamara is highly motivated this season, as the Saints could choose to release Kamara in 2025 to save roughly $20 million against the salary cap. Currently being drafted as the overall RB19, Kamara still brings immense value in the passing game, making him one of the best running back values available. 

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson finished as the RB21 last season, easily outpacing his 2023 ADP of RB36. The arrival of veteran Austin Ekeler to the Washington backfield has suppressed Robinson’s ADP yet again. 

Currently being drafted as the RB30, Robinson is in prime position to be the direct beneficiary of the rushing threat from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. This situation parallels the 2012 season, when Washington’s dual-threat rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III opened up running lanes for plodding veteran Alfred Morris, who finished second in the league in both rushing yards (1,613) and rushing touchdowns (13). 

Ekeler provides competition, but mainly in the passing game and two-minute drill. Robinsons’ 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame is perfect for early-down and goal-line work. Going as the RB30, the concerns about this split backfield have plummeted the Commanders’ bowling-ball running back into a 9th/10th round availability. If you are looking for rushers to target as a Zero RB drafter, look no further than Washington’s Brian Robinson.

Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

I’ve been bullish on the Chargers all offseason, with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins at the top of that list. 

In Jim Harbaugh’s four prior seasons as head coach of San Francisco, the 49ers finished eighth, fourth, third and fourth in total rushing yards. Harbaugh’s lead running back (Frank Gore) finished sixth, 10th, ninth and ninth in total rushing yards, averaging close to 1,200 each season. I love their draft moves, selecting an elite offensive line prospect in Joe Alt, and the Chargers have the second-easiest schedule per Vegas projected opponent win totals. Los Angeles should see some positive regression from a brutal 3-8 record in one-score games. 

One of the Los Angeles running backs should have a very productive season, and Edwards or Dobbins seem like the likeliest candidate. Both players come over from Baltimore, where they resided as rushers in offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s ground attack. Despite competition from rookie Kimani Vidal, I expect one of these two veterans to assume the role of Gore in Harbaugh’s backfield. 

Dobbins has a history of injury concerns but has always profiled as a team’s RB1. He has elite speed (4.37) and has scored 13 total touchdowns in just 24 career NFL games. Edwards was a touchdown machine in 2023, producing 13 total touchdowns, including 9 scores between Week 7 and Week 11. Dobbins is going as a bottom-barrel RB55, and Edwards resides as RB36, seven spots lower than his fantasy finish last season (RB29). 

This Chargers backfield is one of my targets in every fantasy draft, providing two late-round running backs options with season-winning upside.