Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We think we know, but we really don’t.
Fantasy football are historic sufferers of recency bias. If a player failed to reach expectations the prior season, it is very difficult to support them again.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
This will often result in players being unfairly being aggressively undervalued in the year following a disappointing performance. When you add in other confounding factors such as offensive line changes, fluid offensive weapons and the coaching carousel, a poor prior season can be dramatically suppressed down the ADP chain.
Let’s take a closer look at which players are being selected well below last year’s fantasy finishes. Will these players definitely outperform their ADP? Uncertain, but it is a starting point for all fantasy drafters to consider when trying to mitigate their own recency bias symptoms.
We have examined the quarterback values, the running back values and the wide receiver values from last season’s end-of-year fantasy rankings.
Finally, let’s take a look at the tight end values.
2024 ADP Droppers: Tight End
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Hockenson was as good as any fantasy tight end in 2023, finishing with 95 receptions, 960 receiving yards and five touchdowns in just 15 contests before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16. His numbers also did not change with or without quarterback Kirk Cousins, displaying remarkable consistency. Per our FTN Fantasy splits tool, Hockenson showed essentially the same fantasy production with Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs or Jaren Hall under center.
While Hockenson is still recovering from the knee injury, all signs point to a possible return in October, after Minnesota’s Week 6 bye. That gives a savvy fantasy drafter 11 games of Hockenson, coming at a massive discount of TE16. He is being drafted 13 spots after his TE3 finish and will be catching passes from veteran Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy, both of which will likely pepper the short to intermediate area of the field.
Hockenson posted seven stat lines of overall TE6 or better, including residing as the weekly overall TE1 on two separate occasions. With risk comes great reward, and I encourage you to invest in one of the NFL’s best tight ends, even if he misses the first six games of the season.
Donald Parham Jr., Los Angeles Chargers
Parham is statistically the best tight end value in fantasy football, especially for best ball drafts. The 6-foot-8, 240-pound explosive target is still only 26 years old and is a favorite of quarterback Justin Herbert in all scoring chances. Despite seeing just 41 targets, Parham ranked top 15 with nine red zone opportunities. He posted four touchdowns (12th among tight ends) and finished as the overall TE4 and TE5 in the first three weeks. Despite the new coaching staff’s historic preference for a strong rushing attack, Parham may actually have less target competition than last year.
Last year’s starting tight end, Gerald Everett, is now in Chicago. He vacated 70 targets, 51 receptions and three touchdowns from 15 games. Los Angeles added a blocking tight end in Will Dissly and veteran Hayden Hurst from Carolina. Hurst does profile as target competition for Parham but is 30 years old and missed eight games last season due to a concussion. If Parham simply maintains his red zone role from last season, he is still a massive value going as at a microscopic ADP of TE56, available in the last round of every best ball draft.
You aren’t going to start Parham every week in redraft leagues, but he can certainly provide at least 4-5 weeks of top-5 tight end fantasy production. He is the perfect second best ball tight end to Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride or Mark Andrews, or a third option if you wait on the position. If Hurst misses time again, Parham could be a fantastic last-round selection.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson was a hot name in the best ball streets earlier this offseason, but has dropped precipitously after undergoing foot surgery in early June. Per our FTN ADP Exploration Tool, Johnson’s ADP has climbed 40 spots since early June, from around 170 to now 210.
Johnson is another tight end that is available with the last pick of your Best Ball drafts, and may actually be ready for Week 1. Johnson ended the season with the overall TE5 performance in Week 16 and the optimal overall TE1 week in the fantasy football championships in Week 17.
Johnson has a strong athletic profile at a position where it doesn’t take much to make a difference. Even if Johnson isn’t at full strength in September, he certainly has the ability to recreate his elite production during the fantasy playoffs, when championships are won. Since he will not be your first TE, you can easily spend a last-round pick on the explosive starting tight end in New Orleans.
