Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every year, some follically challenged scribe lists his favorite underpriced names he believes are destined to torch the competition. Some readers inevitably categorize them as “sleepers,” an overused, misrepresented and poorly defined blanket term in the virtual game. No, consider these fiery individuals “undervalued,” players outside of common starting requirements in 12-team leagues (e.g. WR1-WR36) who pack plenty of bang for the buck. Wednesday’s ‘Flames’ cover WRs.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
(ADP: WR37, 86.4)
If Guy Fieri were an NFL player, unquestionably he would be Cooks. Annoying, yet rosterable, the receiver is a Johnny Garlic’s restaurant one health code violation away from shuttering.
Limited by injuries, Cooks rapidly deteriorated before gamers’ eyes, averaging a useless 3.1 receptions per game and 41.6 yards per game while scoring twice. His average depth of target (14.4 yards) was respectable, but (WR96 in catchable target percentage) Cooks and esteemed astrophysicist Jared Goff were rarely on the same page.
With DeAndre Hopkins’ 150 vacated targets up for grabs, Cooks is a viable rebound candidate. Only two years removed from a banner 2018 in which he logged an 80-1,204-6 line and ranked No. 9 in total air yards, the 26-year-old (Yes, it’s jarring every time) is still in the midst of his physical prime and has much to prove. Expect Deshaun Watson to lean on him early and often.
One helmet-to-helmet blow could force retirement, but Cooks is worth the medium-risk/high-reward selection at his mid-draft ADP. Given his age, solid statistical history and target share potential, he could greatly outperform modest expectations. Tallying 70 catches for 1,100 yards and 5-7 TDs isn’t a tequila-influenced take.
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Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
(WR62, 156.1)
The last images of Pac-12 football, now officially on hiatus until spring, included Pittman high-pointing pass after pass over diminutive defensive backs.
A flex fixture on this year’s All-ManCrush Team, the USC product’s starting role as the ‘X’ receiver is practically cemented. At 6-foot-4, 223 pounds and blessed with 4.58 40-yard speed, he’s a big-bodied target with strong and reliable hands. Last year with the Trojans he amassed a 101-1,275-11 line, displaying the fantastic leaping ability and contested-catch skills needed to win battles at the pro level.
Pittman, in myriad ways, is Rivers’ new Mike Williams or Vincent Jackson, a field-stretching, tough-to-tackle wideout who is sure to give undersized corners fits. At a minimum, he’ll command the 5.1 targets per game Zach Pascal lured last season.
Available well into the triple digits in average drafts, he’s a viable ROY candidate (40/1 odds at DraftKings) capable of 60-plus receptions, 850-950 yards with 5-7 TDs. Highlight his name on your cheat sheet.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
(WR66, 175.2)
Derek Carr’s underneath crutch — despite what the coaching staff tells you about Henry Ruggs — isn’t going to suddenly become a primary outside-the-hashmarks receiver or sideline stander. If the rookie is most often deployed in the slot, Kanye West wins the presidency in a landslide come November.
Renfrow is still the Raiders’ projected primary underneath target. He’s nicknamed “Slot Machine” for a reason after lining up at the position 71% of the time in 2019. Drop a quarter, pull the lever and a line of lucky sevens will sound sirens.
Last season, the Clemson product established a solid late-season rapport with Carr, thriving on curls, slants and flat routes. Over his final seven games, he averaged the most fantasy points per snap (0.37) of any NFL wideout. During that stretch, Renfrow hauled in 35 receptions (on 45 targets) for 490 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, he ranked No. 6 in fantasy points per snap, No. 3 in yards after contact per reception and totaled an attractive 28.4 red-zone target percentage. In many ways, he’s a poor man’s Cooper Kupp, a highly reliable catch accumulator whose quarterback trusts him in high-leverage situations .
Renfrow has competition, but if he and Carr can resume their budding on-field romance from November/December, 65-plus connections are possible. At his dirt-cheap ADP, he’s one of the better bargain buys at the position.
Golden Tate, New York Giants
(WR53, 130.1)
From shotgunning brewskies for ‘Merica to breaking into a donut shop to satisfy a late-night maple bar craving to devouring real estate chunks post-catch, Tate is one of the more memorable wideouts of the past decade.
Overshadowed by upstart Darius Slayton, Tate has become a victim of ageism. There’s no other explanation for his 130-plus ADP. Disagree? The numbers never lie. Last season in 11 games, he amassed a 49-676-6 line on 81 targets, an output that ranked WR26 on a per-game basis in 0.5 PPR leagues. By a fantasy-points-per-snap measurement, he was slightly better at WR24. His 14.8% red-zone target percentage soured production, but WR18 in YAC per reception, the venerable wideout showed he is still one tough dude to wrangle after the catch.
Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley will command targets, but Tate sliding into the WR top-36 come year’s end is entirely believable. Daniel Jones, who ranked QB29 in adjusted completion percentage in his rookie campaign, will likely advance forward in his overall development. If the case and given New York’s presumed dreadful defense, Tate will be an unheralded 65-800-7 source.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
(WR39, 88.9)
People do dumb things. It’s an inherent gift many waterheards, this one included, sadly possess. From microwaving food wrapped in tinfoil to refusing to wear a mask mid-pandemic inside a crowded Home Depot to drafting Jets in fantasy, common sense, oftentimes, isn’t fully utilized.
It may seem counterproductive, but investing in Crowder isn’t a moronic move. He’s Sam Darnold’s binky, a safety blanket in the short field who steadily piles up receptions. Last season logging 24.7% of the team’s target share (122 looks), he corralled 78 receptions for 834 yards and six touchdowns. And he achieved that ranking WR78 in catchable target rate. As his 7.1 yards per target and low standing in air yards indicate, he’s a long shot for a four-figure output in yardage, but a steady supply of 5-plus-catch games are very likely.
Chris Herndon, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims and Le'Veon Bell will vie for Darnold’s passing affections and Gase’s glacier-slow offense is unappealing, but make no mistake, Crowder will continue to haul in his fair share, likely again exceeding 70 receptions. A firm WR3 in 0.5 PPR formats a season ago, he’s a name to star in the middle rounds.
