Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every year, some follically challenged scribe lists his favorite underpriced names he believes are destined to torch the competition. Some readers inevitably categorize them as “sleepers” (or “must avoids”) an overused, misrepresented and poorly defined blanket term in the virtual game. Instead, consider these fiery individuals “undervalued,” players outside common starting requirements in 12-team leagues (e.g. QB1-QB12) who pack plenty of bang for the buck. Monday’s ‘Flames’ topic: QBs.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
(ADP: QB15, 132.4 ADP)
The subject of arguably the most annoying commercial campaign in 2019, Mayfield failed miserably to protect his house. His downslide in multiple critical categories was humiliating. He ranked QB36 in adjusted completion percentage, QB26 in deep-ball passer rating (71.7) and, most hilariously, QB50 in red-zone completion percentage. His resulting surface numbers only added to the embarrassment as he averaged a pedestrian 239.2 pass yards per game and totaled 22 pass TDs.
With his career at a crossroads, there is, however, hope. Sans Freddie Kitchens, new HC Kevin Stefanski is determined to resurface Mayfield’s successful 2018 self. With red zone crutch Austin Hooper, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb and a rejuvenated Odell Beckham Jr. at his disposal, vibes are positive. A rebuilt offensive line should also do wonders as Mayfield was placed under duress on nearly one-third of his dropbacks.
Stefanski was Ted Cruz-conservative on offense last year with Minnesota leaning on Kirk Cousins’ arm on just 49.5% of the passer’s dropbacks. Still, if Mayfield can maximize efficiency, 3,900 yards with 26-28 TDs is a realistic possibility.
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Daniel Jones, New York Giants
(QB25, 125.1)
Naturally, as an All-Mancrush member, Jones cements a spot on this list. Prematurely lampooned by this dunce-cap wearing dimwit on national TV NFL draft night in 2019, my skewering of Giants GM Dave Gettlemen was unfair. Suffice it to say, my viewpoints since have done a complete 180.
Jones is an unpolished version of Aaron Rodgers. No, he doesn’t have the track record of wooing gorgeous starlets off the field nor does he possess Hall of Fame-level credentials on it. His accuracy, too, is questionable. OK, maybe it’s not the greatest comparison, but his sneaky duality is reminiscent of Green Bay’s unenthused Bon Iver fan. Shockingly impactful in his rookie season, he amassed 233.8 pass yards per game, 21.5 rush yards per game and totaled 26 TDs in 13 contests. His QB29 and QB25 standings, respectively, in adjusted completion percentage and deep-ball passer rating (74.2) indicate there’s plenty of room to grow.
Investments in the offensive line matched with a better-than-advertised pass-catching stable and a projected invisible defense minus top DB Deandre Baker arrow to Jones cracking the position’s top-10. Bank on close to 4,000 combined yards and 30 total TDs.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
(QB20, 125.6)
Cucumber cool, laser accurate, quick-witted and a sneaky scoring dualist, Burrow has all the ingredients necessary to bury the competition. He was, after all, the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft for a reason.
The dude is a human chainsaw capable of cutting through the most congested on-field forests. Relentless, fearless and unrattled against intense pressure, he has an uncanny knack for squeezing balls into tight spaces whether five or 50 yards out. Last year for the national champion LSU Tigers he notched a 122.9 passer rating or better on every throw. He ranked QB2 in adjusted completion percentage and QB1 in total deep pass yards. His touch and ability to rapidly process coverages will transfer seamlessly. The Heisman winner’s opportunistic legs, meanwhile, will only enhance his potential fantasy studliness.
With wilted leaf A.J. Green reportedly motivated and looking like his old self, Burrow, despite being behind the 8-ball due to the coronavirus-influenced freezeout, enters into a better-than-advertised situation. If Green resembles even 60% the player he once was and Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon continue to perform at a high level, he’ll penetrate the position’s top-15.
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
(QB22, 162.8)
His perfectly trimmed handlebar mustache, well-conditioned locks aside and generally goofy makeup aside, Minshew is a steadfast competitor who should be taken seriously.
The mainstream media sensation captivated the football world last fall. Out of nowhere, he delivered respectable numbers for fantasy purposes. In 14 games he averaged 233.6 pass yards per game, 24.6 rush yards per contest and totaled 21 touchdowns. Unbeknownst to most, he finished QB1 in deep-ball passer rating (122.0). His short-to-intermediate accuracy (QB32 in adjusted completion percentage), which he was known for at Washington State, waned, especially inside the red zone (QB47 in RZ completion percentage). If he can regain his touch in those areas, he’s primed to take a major leap forward.
Jacksonville isn’t a barren wasteland for pass-catching talent. D.J. Chark is an emerging supernova, Chris Conley has secondary-gashing speed and Leonard Fournette is a suitable safety valve underneath. Adding multipurpose rookie Laviska Shenault and Chris Thompson to the mix only elevates the group.
Defenses, like the coronavirus, could soon turn and run away from Minshew. Reportedly on a mission to prove he’s the franchise QB and with a proven play caller, Jay Gruden, barking through the headset, he’s bound to profit. Keep in mind, Jacksonville’s bendable defense will be one of the NFL’s worst.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
(QB31, 228.1)
When firing on all cylinders, the Lorax not only speaks for the trees, he brings opponents to their knees.
Tua Tagovailoa is waiting patiently in the wings, but the rookie, off a gruesome hip injury, will be brought along slowly. Following sportsbook odds, Fitzpatrick is most likely to be under center in Miami’s opener at New England. I’m confident the Magic Man starts at least eight games, potentially yielding top-15 numbers in the process.
Remember over his final nine games from 2019, Fitzpatrick kissed multiple blarney stones. Over that span he ranked No. 3 in total fantasy output, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston. During that prolific phase he averaged a scintillating 291.3 pass yards per game, 21.6 rush yards per game and totaled 17 touchdowns (3 rushing). Also respectable in adjusted completion percentage (75.1%) and average depth of target (9.2), the well-traveled QB graduated from the waiver wire to starting fantasy lineups, even in shallow formats.
His leash is short, but at the helm of an upgraded team, particularly along the offensive line, Fitzpatrick and his wonderfully bushy beard is sure to envelope franchises with appreciable points.
