Eagles at Bucs: DVOA Preview

Our DVOA ratings have been down on the Philadelphia Eagles for much of the 2023 season, at least compared to their win-loss record. As the Eagles escaped the early season with some close wins over unimpressive opponents (25-20 over the Patriots, 38-31 over the Commanders, etc.), the DVOA ratings kept the Eagles around ninth or 10th even as they built up a 10-1 record. And it kept them around the same place as they started to lose games in the last part of the season.

But at this point, those losses have piled up. The Eagles have simply not played well for the last six weeks, going 1-5 including losses to the Cardinals and Giants. They are now down to 14th in total DVOA for the season and 21st in weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games.

At the same time, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trudged along all season ranked around 20th. Somebody was going to win the NFC South and sure, it might be Tampa Bay, but we didn’t have to like it. But the Buccaneers, opposite of the Eagles, perked up at the end of the season. They ended the year 5-1 with convincing wins over the Packers and Jaguars. The Buccaneers finished the year only 18th in DVOA, but 15th in weighted DVOA. That’s right: over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been a better football team than the Eagles.

These teams played back in Week 3 and Philadelphia won 25-11 on the road, but given how each team has played in recent weeks, that might as well have been the Kennedy administration. Can the Bucs steal this wild-card game at home and move on to the Divisional Round?

All stats are for the regular season only. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, not just offense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL

Everything in this game has to start with the trends. The Eagles have gone from seventh in offensive DVOA through Week 9 to 15th in offense since Week 10. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have seen their pass defense improve from 21st in the first half of the season to 10th in the second half of the season. (The run defense has stayed constant, a little better than league average.)

The Buccaneers’ biggest improvement late in the season counters the Eagles’ greatest offensive strength. Philadelphia ranks second in the league in DVOA on third and fourth downs this year. They’re No. 1 passing the ball and of course they have the Brotherly Shove for short-yardage running plays. The Tampa Bay defense ranked 20th on third and fourth downs compared to 14th overall. However, the Buccaneers were 30th on third and fourth down through Week 9 (17.8% DVOA) and have improved to seventh since Week 10 (-13.5% DVOA). The Bucs are allowing 1.2 fewer yards per play despite opponents having 0.7 more average yards to go on third or fourth downs.

The Buccaneers are a team that keeps cornerbacks to specific sides. It will be Jamel Dean on the offensive left (RCB) and Carlton Davis on the offensive right (LCB). They were similar in my new cornerback DVOA this season but Davis improved significantly in the second half of the season while Dean was consistent (slightly below average) throughout the year. Nickelback Christian Izien had the best cornerback DVOA of the three.

A.J. Brown will miss this game with a knee injury, which is a big loss for the Eagles even though Brown declined in the second half of the season. That should open up some big opportunities for DeVonta Smith. The Bucs ranked 25th this year in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and Brown had nine catches on 14 targets for 131 yards when these teams first met in September. Smith’s DVOA went up from 1.5% in Weeks 1-9 to 31.2% in Weeks 10-18. He’s dealing with an ankle injury but had full participation in practice this week. As for the other Eagles receivers, Quez Watkins and Olamide Zaccheaus were slightly above average in DVOA while Julio Jones was at -25.5% and is pretty much toast despite a couple of touchdowns in the final week.

Overall, despite the loss of Brown, the Eagles should go three-wide and spread out the Tampa defense. The Eagles averaged 4.0 yards per play with -8% DVOA against base defense but 5.8 yards and 19% DVOA against nickel defense. Tampa’s defense came out about the same either way. 

Like all teams, the Buccaneers will mix man and zone coverage, but FTN Data charting says they were much better in man coverage this season. The Bucs were second in DVOA when in man, trailing only Cleveland. They were 27th in DVOA in zone. The Eagles offense was similar either way.

On the ground, the Eagles rank higher running than passing but the Bucs rank higher in run defense compared to pass defense. The Eagles of course led the league by converting 82% of short-yardage runs but the Bucs were eighth and allowed a conversion rate of just 61%. If we take out short yardage, which means taking out the Brotherly Shove, the Eagles drop to a tie for ninth in run DVOA while the Bucs defense is 11th. Based on adjusted line yards, the strengths of the teams match up with each other. The Eagles are best running left end and worst running to the right, while the Bucs are best against runs to the left and worst against runs to the right. FTN charting data suggests that the Eagles should have success running inside zone, with a success rate that is 6.8% above average while the Bucs are 0.5% worse than average.

WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL

Back to the trends we go. The Eagles have gone from 23rd in defense through Week 9 to 30th in defense since Week 10. The Buccaneers passing game has stayed the same but their running game, which was horrible much of the year, did improve a little bit in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay went from 30th to 24th in run offense DVOA after Week 9 and gained about a yard more per carry.

Despite this, I really don’t recommend that the Buccaneers run the ball very much this week. You have to do it a few times to keep the defense honest, but you have permission to yell at the television if the Bucs ever go run, run, pass in a three-and-out. The Buccaneers were dead last in ESPN’s run block win rate and 27th in adjusted line yards. And it isn’t like Rachaad White was breaking it long when he did get good blocking, as the Bucs were 31st in second-level yards per carry and 30th in open-field yards per carry.

No, the secret for the Bucs is to pass, pass, pass the ball. We assume Baker Mayfield will play despite missing Thursday’s practice with aching ribs and an ankle injury. If he plays, the Bucs have to pass. If not, uh… Well, even the Eagles defense should be able to stop Kyle Trask.

But, the Eagles finished the season 29th in pass defense DVOA. They’re even worse specifically against shorter passes up to 15 air yards. They rank 31st on these passes, where Baker Mayfield is average.

That pass defense is a big reason why the Eagles have the worst defense in the league on third downs. That’s a problem because Tampa Bay’s offense has lived on third downs all year long. The Bucs are the No. 1 offense in the league on third downs. It doesn’t matter if it is third-and-short, medium, or long. The Eagles defense ranks 32nd, 32nd, and 30th respectively while the Buccaneers offense is third, seventh, and third respectively. 

The Eagles pass rush also really declined this year after coming close to breaking sack records a year ago. The Eagles were just 25th in adjusted sack rate and average in pressure rate. The Eagles might be inspired to blitz to try to go after Mayfield, but they don’t have the cornerbacks who can be left on islands right now. Mayfield is better with a blitz this year, while the Eagles defense goes from 5% DVOA allowed without a blitz to 27% DVOA allowed with a blitz.

Tampa wants to spread out the Eagles defense, just like the Eagles want to do with the Bucs defense. The Eagles get successively worse the more defensive backs they have on the field, which makes sense given personnel. Tampa Bay was about the same against base or nickel but fantastic in limited snaps (about 100) against dime (6.6 yds per play and 48% DVOA).

The Eagles top cornerback Darius Slay has missed four games since arthroscopic knee surgery but says he will be back against the Buccaneers. Slay has a cornerback coverage DVOA of -7.4% this year. James Bradberry, who has definitely had an off year, comes out at +17.3%. The other cornerbacks do better than you would expect, close to average. Avonte Maddox, the usual nickelback, missed most of the season but is back now.

Watch out if Reed Blankenship has to cover anyone from the Bucs one-on-one. The coverage DVOA is not necessarily as reliable when we’re looking at safeties and linebackers but Blankenship comes out with an awful +82.7% for 2023.Eagles give up the most targets per game to WR1, although they are average in DVOA. Particularly bad against WR2 and Other WR and TE (26th, 29th, 28th respectively).

One thing to watch for when the Eagles play zone coverage: I only have this data for Weeks 1-15, but all of Mayfield’s interceptions during that period came against zone coverage and all of the Eagles’ defensive interceptions during that period came in zone coverage. Mayfield had more yards per pass against zones but a similar DVOA because of the turnovers.

It probably won’t be a huge issue but this is the side of the game where you’re more likely to see penalties. The Eagles had more penalties on defense than offense, while the Buccaneers had more penalties on offense than defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Here’s one place where the Eagles have a clear edge, as they led the league in special teams DVOA this season. Jake Elliott led all kickers in FG/XP value after Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys missed a couple kicks in the final week. Elliott was also 7-of-8 from 50 or more, so the Eagles can try field goals deep if they need to. Chase McLaughlin was good for the Buccaneers and he also went 7-of-8 from 50 or more.

The Eagles’ biggest advantage here comes when the Buccaneers have to punt. Tampa ranked 27th in net punt value while the Eagles and Brittain Covey were third in punt return value. The Bucs allowed six punt returns of 20 or more yards while Covey had eight such returns. The Eagles are also quite good punting while the Buccaneers were below average on punt returns.

OUTLOOK

All season long, the basic assumption was that whichever team stumbled its way to the top of the NFC South was going to the playoffs just to get killed by whichever team finished second in the NFC East, Philadelphia or Dallas. That’s not the case anymore. The Buccaneers have played a little better in recent weeks and the Eagles have played a lot worse. That makes this game a lot more even. Don’t be shocked if the Buccaneers pull off the upset at home and go on to the divisional round.