Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I will address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most current headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
This week I want to turn our attention to the wide receiver landscape, I will discuss some free agents and how their fantasy outlook could improve or worsen this offseason.
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers is coming off his second straight season of 95-plus targets and 800-plus receiving yards. He also found the end zone a career-high six times in 2022. As a PPR asset, he finished as a top-36 option seven times and a top-12 option three times en route to a WR29 finish with 180.3 PPR points, Meyers’ second season in a row as exactly the WR29. He has served as the Patriots’ WR1 the last two years, combining for 150 receptions on 222 targets for 1,670 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Per the FTN Player Utilization Report, Meyers led the Patriots in routes run at 398 and air yards at 941, good for a 27% air yard share when he was active. His 2.0 yards per route run also led the team among all qualified receivers, one of 27 players around the league with at least 2.0. There is a lot of buzz around Meyers heading into free agency — he’s likely to be the most targeted free agent wide receiver. Moving to a heavier passing attack would give Meyers a huge boost in fantasy, if he can remain his team’s No. 1 receiver, while a return to New England could keep him on course for mediocre production.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off his biggest-yardage season since 2018 in 2022, as he produced 933 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on 78 receptions with the Chiefs. His 492 routes run were third on the team, and he trailed only Travis Kelce on the Chiefs with 101 targets. Smith-Schuster put up 1.9 yards per route run, also trailing only Kelce among qualified Chiefs and a top-50 number around the league.
He finished as the WR27 with 185.3 points, a respectable season in his first year in a new offense. He also flashed a high-end upside finishing inside the top 10 in weekly PPR scoring four times. On the flip side, he had several weeks where he was unusable, with eight finishes outside the top-55 in 16 games. The upside he flashed has me hopeful that he can take the next step and become more consistent as a fantasy asset (and maybe have more touchdown luck) if he re-signs with the Chiefs. I do think Kansas City is the best place for him, but if he doesn’t re-sign I think a nice fit for him would be a place he can see a large target share. Houston, Carolina or Tennessee seem like places he could see a similar target share to this past season, but with more opportunity to find the end zone.
DJ Chark, Detroit Lions
DJ Chark has yet to regain the form he had in 2019 when he topped 1,000 receiving yards and scored 8 touchdowns on his way to a Pro Bowl appearance. In 2021, he faced a setback with a broken ankle forcing him out of most of the season. He signed a one-year prove-it deal in Detroit last offseason and produced a respectable season of 502 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30 receptions.
Chark was second on the Lions with 721 air yards. He wasn’t much of a fantasy asset (WR75, 98.2 PPR points), but he did have four top-24 finishes and one top-10 finish, giving us a glimmer of hope. The best situation for Chark is to find himself in a situation that has a good deep-ball thrower at the helm and is also paired with a team who enjoys stretching the field regularly — the Chargers and Bills feel like ideal landing spots here.
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
Parris Campbell played every game of the season last year, the first time in his career he managed to do so (he had 15 total games in three seasons before 2022). That allowed him to showcase the talent fantasy managers had been looking for. He saw 91 targets in 2022, catcher 63 for 723 yards and 3 scores (all second on the team). He only managed 1.1 yards per route run, the seventh-worst mark for a receiver in the league (min. 50 targets), but the Colts’ passing offense struggled so much that it would have been hard for any receiver to offer much efficiency.
Campbell also had his best season as a fantasy asset, the WR48 with 149.1 PPR points. He had six top-36 finishes, including being the WR9 and WR5 in back-to-back games in Weeks 6-7. This gives me hope that a move from Indianapolis to a more stable offense could turn Campbell into more of a solid fantasy asset. The ideal fit for him would be a spot he can play out of the slot where his quickness and shiftiness let him excel, but where he isn’t relied on as the guy. Buffalo, Carolina, Atlanta or Minnesota come to mind as spots that would allow him to see a significant target share while controlling the middle of the field.
