NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
There have been little to no real moves that have happened this past week that would greatly affect the dynasty landscape. So I want to revisit a few under-the-radar signings that may have a bigger impact on fantasy than we thought at the time of the signing.
Samaje Perine to Denver
Samaje Perine has been relatively irrelevant when it came to fantasy for the majority of his career, but that changed for part of last season. He had seven top-36 finishes in PPR scoring, his most in a single season since his rookie season in 2017. He also set a career-high with three top-10 finishes — all in Weeks 11-13, when he amassed 71 PPR points and was the RB2 while filling in for Joe Mixon as the Bengals’ lead back. According to the FTN Stats Hub, he also created 281 yards after contact and forced 14 missed tackles on only 95 rushing attempts all of last season. That helps show that even at the age of 27 he still has some wiggle and power left to his game.
Signing with Denver may seem insignificant, but with Javonte Williams on the mend, Perine may carry a significant role in 2023. Last season, the Broncos divided 416 rushing attempts among six different running backs. It will be a different story in 2023. Sean Payton is now the head coach — he has consistently used muti-back systems throughout his career, leaning on two guys in particular. Payton’s offenses have ranked top 15 in rushing attempts eight times, including three in his last four seasons in New Orleans. Currently, the Broncos only roster Perine, Williams and Tyler Badie. In other words, with Williams recovering from his injury, Perine will likely be the focal point of the run game in the early weeks of the season. He has shown the ability to be a high-end fantasy asset when given a significant workload, so I expect nothing less under this Payton-led Broncos team.
D’Onta Foreman to Chicago
D’Onta Foreman has had one of the best late-career revivals in recent history the last few years. Over the last two years, he’s totaled 1,480 rushing yards and 8 scores on 336 rushing attempts. Over those two seasons (per PFF), he’s forced 55 missed tackles on carries and amassed 1,047 yards after contact. We also saw him show off his speed as he posted 37 runs over 10 yards, including 19 for 15-plus yards. This past season he finished with 131.0 PPR points (RB38), but that included being the backup for Christian McCaffrey over the first chunk of the season. Foreman did have three top-10 finishes including a top-five finish in Week 8, and that was while splitting touches with Chuba Hubbard.
He now joins a Bears squad that is used to splitting the backfield touches. The Bears have had David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert each top 100 carries in each of the last two years (including Montgomery over 200). And Montgomery is now in Detroit, leaving a huge opportunity for Herbert and/or Foreman. I do think Herbert leads this backfield in touches in 2023 barring injury, Foreman is more than capable to handle a healthy load. Ultimately, I think this means each player has a limited ceiling, especially when you factor in the rushing that Justin Fields will do as well. Both backs are good, but this could be a frustrating backfield for fantasy.
Parris Campbell to the Giants
Parris Campbell is coming off a career year where he set career highs in every major receiving category while playing in a majority of the games for the first time in his four-year career. He managed to produce 623 receiving yards on 63 receptions and found the end zone 3 times on an abysmal Colts offense. He caught six of his eight contested targets and created an impressive 4.4 yards after the catch per attempt per the FTN Stats Hub. This led to 277 yards after the catch helping show off his ability to create after the catch which we saw at Ohio State.
This season he joins a much more creative Giants offense led by Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka – two coaches who tend to get their players in the best situations to succeed. With this, I expect to see Campbell improve on his numbers from last season. Currently, the Giants have a wide-open depth chart at wide receiver with no real proven talent, meaning Campbell has a shot at landing a significant role if he can show well in offseason work. The Giants were very run-heavy last year (sixth in rushing attempts and 25th in passing attempts), but this was due to a lack of weapons on the perimeter. I expect Daboll to turn a bit more pass-heavy this season, which bodes well for his slot receiver. In Buffalo, we saw his slot receiver see a significant target share — Cole Beasley saw three straight seasons with over 100 targets — this group of receivers feels very similar. I expect Campbell to step into this role this year. That’s no guarantee considering the glut of similar receivers in New York (Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, even Darren Waller), but last year Campbell played 82% of his snaps from the slot, and 67.9% of his career snaps have been from the slot. If he can rise above the others in this offense, he could set career highs again, and that would make him a priority this offseason in dynasty leagues.
