Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
Odell Beckham Finally Signs
We’ve all been on Odell Beckham watch for a long time, but it finally came to an end this week with news that he signed with the Baltimore Ravens. You could argue this landing spot isn’t as exciting as some of the other potential landing spaces that had been bandied about (the Bills, the Cowboys, the Jets), but ultimately I think there could be multiple dynasty ripples coming out of this move.
First is Beckham himself. He could potentially become the top receiver on the Ravens’ roster considering the state of the receiver group, if he turns out to be fully healthy. Third-year receiver Rashod Bateman has flashed upside with over 800 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns but has struggled to stay on the field in his first two years. After that, the Ravens have Devin Duvernay, Nelson Agholor and James Proche, who have a combined zero career 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Even with a potentially pass-heavier scheme under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Beckham’s ceiling is probably a WR2 at best on a weekly basis for fantasy, in large part due to the overall limited volume there still will be — especially considering Monken has a history of using tight ends heavily and has Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to utilize in Baltimore.
The second key piece of fallout is Lamar Jackson. It is not a guarantee, but it seems like this signing increases the likelihood Jackson will be the Week 1 starter for the Ravens. At this point in Beckham’s career, I don’t think he would sign with the Ravens without some assurance Jackson will be there. This is huge for Jackson and all the offensive skill players in Baltimore, as this offense will return to the explosive form we have grown to know in recent years – something it lacked down the stretch last season with Tyler Huntley under center. Since Jackson became the starter in 2019, the Ravens have averaged over 10 more points scored per game and over 25 more passing yards per game via the FTN Splits Tool:
We also see that the team’s skill players average more touchdown opportunities in games with Jackson around. In other words, the presumed return of Jackson will be great news for all when it comes to fantasy production.
The third and final key piece of fallout is a bit north, in the Jets’ receiver room. They survived adding another playmaker to an already crowded room that already saw two new additions this offseason. Garrett Wilson will be the lead guy in the room and command a majority of the targets. After that, though, it’s open for anyone to carve out a role now that we know Odell Beckham won’t be around. Allen Lazard, Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman will be jockeying for this role in 2023. Last season, the Jets had three receivers over 64 targets, leaving room for potentially a few of these guys to carve out some fantasy value, depending on who ends up this team’s Week 1 starter at quarterback.
As of right now, the Jets have Zach Wilson, Chris Streveler and Tim Boyle on the roster, three quarterbacks who have collectively offered very little in the way of support for a fantasy option. Last season, Garrett Wilson saw his most production in games Wilson missed. We also saw this trend in 2021 with Elijah Moore. With this looming over the receiver group, it’s hard to see huge fantasy production if the Jets go into the season with that QB room. Of course, with the rumors Aaron Rodgers seems likely to find his way to the Big Apple, we could be having a different conversation about this group and their fantasy outlook, as Rodgers has proven to support multiple viable fantasy options regularly.
