Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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When the free agent market started to take form, football fans all over the place tried to pair Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. And that came to pass Tuesday, with Henry agreeing to terms with the Ravens on a two-year deal worth up to $20 million.
Henry is coming off of is second straight 1,000-yard season and fifth such season in the last six years. It was also his fourth time leading the league in carries in the last five years (and he was averaging a league-leading 27.4 carries per game in 2021 before getting injured). His efficiency has taken a dip as he has aged (Henry turned 30 in January), with 2023 rookie Tyjae Spears getting more work alongside Henry in Tennessee than any backup had ever gotten since his breakout. That said, he’s still as bruising a back as exists in the NFL – Henry has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of the last six years.
Henry isn’t much as a receiver – his career highs as a pass-catcher are 41 targets, 33 receptions and 398 yards, all in 2022, and he only has three career receiving scores – but that’s never been a prioritized skill set in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. And with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both leaving via free agency and Keaton Mitchell likely to miss at least a chunk of 2024 after his late-season ACL tear as a rookie last year, there was a massive opening in Baltimore for a new starting back.
Assuming Henry still has his juice, putting him alongside Lamar Jackson could form one of the most electric one-two QB/RB punches we’ve ever seen. There’s the potential here for QB1 and RB1 seasons out of the two of them if everything breaks right. Even if Henry isn’t at his peak, though, he’s a surefire fantasy starter in PPR, even without a lot of receiving to sustain him. This is a high-floor signing from a fantasy perspective, and the ceiling is massive as well.
