Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Today’s odds boost piece is absolutely loaded. We’ll take a look at some odds boosts for the NBA and MLB, but the majority of the action will revolve around the PGA Championship. The first golf major of the year tees off on Thursday, and the various sportsbooks are offering tons of promotions for Tiger Woods.
If you’re looking for more value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum Fade the Noise Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, MLB, and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
MLB Odds Boost
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees (4:05 and 7:05 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: Aaron Judge to homer in either contest: +150 on PointsBet (was +100)
The Yankees will play two seven-inning games vs. the Phillies Wednesday, which should give Judge 14 innings to potentially go yard. He will have to face a pair of very intimidating right-handers on the mound — Zach Wheeler will start Game 1, Aaron Nola game 2 — but Judge has historically been at his best vs. right-handed pitchers. He posted a .251 ISO vs. right-handers in 2019, thanks in part to a 50.9% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of over 100 miles per hour.
NBA Odds Boost
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6:30 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: Lakers to win and Anthony Davis to score at least 30 points: +300 on BetMGM
The Lakers are squaring off with the Thunder in one of the marquee matchups on Wednesday’s slate. That said, the Lakers are solid favorites in this contest, checking in with -220 moneyline odds.
Part of that is due to the absence of Dennis Schroder, who left the bubble to attend the birth of his child. Schroder has been one of the most important members of OKC’s rotation this season: They’ve increased their Net Rating by +7.2 points per 100 possessions with Schroder on the court.
The bigger question is if Davis can score more than 30 points. He’s averaged 26.8 points per game this season, but he has eclipsed the 30-point threshold in two of his first three games in Orlando.
If you are interested in this wager, make sure to monitor the news before locking it in. The Lakers have already clinched the top seed in the Western Conference and are playing the first leg of a back-to-back. Davis could potentially be limited in this contest or get the night off entirely.
PGA Odds Boost
PGA Championship (Thursday start)
Boosted bets: Tiger Woods to make the cut: +100 on DraftKings, +200 on FoxBet
Tiger Woods to finish top 10: +420 on FanDuel (was +340)
Tiger Woods to finish top five: +705 on DraftKings (was +650)
If you’re a fan of betting on Tiger Woods, you’ve got plenty of options to choose from for the PGA Championship.
Even if you aren’t a fan of Woods, locking in a bet on him to make the cut at +200 is definitely +EV. Woods is not the same golfer that he was in his prime, but he’s still made the cut in 15 of his past 17 tournaments. Grabbing him at even money on DraftKings obviously isn’t as appealing, but it’s still a great wager.
Betting on Woods to finish in the top five or 10 is significantly riskier. He hasn’t played a ton of golf recently, and he’s finished 40th and 68th in his past two tournaments.
Still, this is Tiger Woods we’re talking about. He is arguably the greatest golfer in the history of the sport, and he always seems to save his best for major championships. I would not be surprised at all if he posted a top five this week.
Boosted bet: Woods, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka all to make the cut: +120 on BetMGM
If you’re looking for another way to get down some action on Tiger making the cut, consider taking this boosted parlay at BetMGM.
Rory should be a near certainty to make the cut. He’s qualified for the weekend in 95% of his tournaments over the past 75 weeks, and he’s among the betting favorites at TPC Harding Park.
Koepka is more of the wildcard. He’s actually missed the cut in two of his past five events, although he did appear to turn things around last week with a second-place finish at the St. Jude Invitational. Like Tiger, Koepka is also known as a “big game hunter” — he typically brings his best to the tournaments that matter most.
Promo: Outright winner insurance up to $25 at PointsBet
Last but certainly not least, make sure to check out this promo at PointsBet if you plan on betting on any outright winners. They are offering a promo where you get your money back up to $25 on your first outright winner bet if your golfer finishes inside the top 20.
This can be a great way to get some added value on bets. For example, Justin Thomas’ odds of finishing in the Top 20 are listed right now at -175. With this promo, you can grab Thomas to win at +1100 and get the added benefit of a Top 20 wager at +100. It’s a win-win.
Remember, this promo is only valid for your first outright winner wager, so choose wisely.
For more info on the PGA Championship, make sure to check out our course preview, favorite matchups, and staff best bets.
