Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
“Trapped” on a sunny beach in a temperate climate relishing University of Illinois basketball/football championships whilst surrounded by puppies, shirtless cardboard cutouts of David Montgomery and with access to a limitless tequila tap. This is my ultimate dream scenario. Whether dwelling on fantasy whimsies or those in a makeshift reality, we all have dreams and aspirations, no matter how unattainable. Escaping to an alternate dimension, below are my favorite round-by-round picks, excluding Round 1, based on ADPs in 2020 fantasy football drafts:
Hypothetical roster rules: 12-teams. .5 PPR. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
Also see: Favorite picks in Rounds 6-9 | Favorite picks in Rounds 10-13 | Favorite picks in Rounds 14+
Round 2: Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
(ADP: RB16, 16.5)
If a picture is worth a thousand words, the snapshot of A.J. Dillon wearing a pair of butt-hugging John Stocktons generated ample negative adjectives describing the veteran Jones. The rookie rusher’s glistening godlike thighs wooed potential investors and provided more ammunition for Jones naysayers. And it was complete nonsense. Make no mistake, last season’s TD king isn’t relinquishing his crown anytime soon. By all accounts, he’s still the backfield’s unrivaled monarch, a player who’ll command at least 60-65% of the opportunity share.
Last fall, the Packer backer was the epitome of efficiency. On 34 red-zone attempts he scored 14 times and on 17 carries inside the five he crossed the chalk 10 times. Additionally, he ranked appreciably in several secondary metrics, including YAC per attempt (RB17) and yards created per carry (RB8). Yes, TD regression is bound to kick in, but working behind a top-shelf Green Bay offensive line, he’s bound to cut an end-zone jig at least a dozen times. “Fast, decisive and explosive” according to eyewitness accounts, he’s a top-10 RB who’s absurdly viewed as a fading RB2 in 12-team leagues. As discussed previously, when it comes to Jones, it’s wise to bury the hatchet.
Round 3: Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
(WR29, 29.3)
Bring back Erik Kramer. Heck, maybe even Rex Grossman. OK, that’s an unwanted declaration. Still, the Bears QB battle, a butter knife fight between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky, has done little to spark confidence. The passers’ uninspiring play in camp has left HC Matt Nagy and beat writers miffed on who will emerge as the starter. This franchise fan directs a slow sarcastic clap in GM Ryan Pace’s general direction.
No matter who is at the helm Week 1 in Detroit, know this — Robinson is going to get peppered with targets. His 150 looks from 2019 could easily carry over. Assuming that plays out, Chicago’s receiving grizzly will dig claws into the competition. Last season he excelled in contested catch situations (WR5 in contested catch percentage) whether outside the numbers or between the hashmarks. His high success rates versus man, press and double coverages only rubber stamp his toughness. The environment may seem unsupportive, but he should flirt with a final output around 100-1,175-8.
Round 4: David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
(RB42, 42.1)
Understandably, most of you reading this would rather high five some random person fresh out of the bathroom stall than entertain a descending running back who last seen resembled a broken warhorse with one hoof in the glue factory. But the potential 300-touch volume should convince you otherwise. After the media beating Bill O’Brien absorbed post DeAndre Hopkins dealing, he’s determined to resurrect Johnson’s career. Repeatedly this summer he’s described the veteran as a “three-down back.”
Expectations are high for Johnson. He entered camp in phenomenal shape. It’s hard to gloss over his basement-dwelling analytics from last season (2.04 YAC per attempt; 8.5 missed tackle%), but it’s important to remember how valuable he was pre-back and ankle setbacks. Before the wheels came flying off, he averaged 102.2 total yards per game and scored five touchdowns with Arizona Weeks 1-6. Remain upright and he’ll cruise past the 1,200 total yard mark with 7-9 TDs.
Round 5: Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
(WR21, 50.9)
An honorable mention for this year’s Rodney Dangerfield All-Stars, Sutton isn’t getting the love he undoubtedly deserves. Why? Does he have cooties? An endless case of rancid flatulence? Did the Broncos secretly re-sign Tim Tebow? Seriously, it’s rather unbelievable a nascent talent like Sutton, coming off a breakthrough 72-1,112-6 season, is barely viewed as a WR2 in 12-team formats. The calculus doesn’t add up.
Under the hood, Sutton is a rock star who smashed Fenders with considerable ferocity a season ago. He ranked inside the top-25 in contested catch rate, total air yards, and red-zone target share (30.4%). Unstoppable per beat writer accounts in Broncos camp, he is the unrivaled No. 1, a receiver who established an instant chemistry with Drew Lock over five games in 2019. His long sinewy frame and reliable hands is sure to win multiple mano-y-mano battles, especially inside the end zone.
Questions remain about Lock and Pat Shurmur’s newly installed offense may take time to smoothly execute, but advancing beyond last year’s production is reachable. Don’t overvalue Jerry Jeudy’s impact. As The Athletic noted last week, Sutton is about to make another numbers leap.
