Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: Baltimore’s Finest.
Fantasy Football Booms – Ravens
Lamar Jackson, QB
After beginning last season in a rut, Jackson settled down, flashing the QB1 overall ceiling we saw weekly in 2019. In Weeks 13-17, Jackson was the QB2 in fantasy points per game (27.6) behind only Josh Allen. This offseason, Baltimore shuffled the board on the offensive line and receiving depth chart with upgrades to help Jackson return to MVP form.
Jackson’s rushing is an assured commodity in his fantasy treasure chest that we don’t need to spend time parsing. The real determinant of his true ceiling lies with his abilities as a passer. If the Ravens personnel moves pan out, Jackson is set to smash. Last year, the Ravens line was a problem as he ranked third in hurries and fourth in pressures. The additions of Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva will help greatly. Among all guards and tackles with 150 or more pass-blocking snaps, Zeitler and Villanueva each graded out as the No. 26 pass protectors at their respective positions per PFF. If Jackson has time in the pocket, he can carve up opposing secondaries through the air as he showed last year ranking ninth in clean pocket completion percentage (76.5%).
With Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace providing softer hands than Willie Snead, Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay, Jackson can reclaim his seat on the quarterback throne. — Derek Brown
J.K. Dobbins, RB
The former Ohio State standout is on the brink of a breakout. Gus Edwards will continue to sporadically supplant him, but he enters camp as the RB top dog. Playing alongside the most dynamic running QB since Michael Vick has its perks. With defenses always forced to play on their toes, Baltimore’s RPO will again prove quite impactful, paving the way for numerous Dobbins chunk gains. Bust through arm tackles with the same vim and vigor as he exhibited last season — he finished RB7 in YAC per attempt with a 3.47 mark — and J.K. morphs into a juggernaut. Keep in mind he also ranked appreciably in breakaway run rate (RB1), total yards created (RB11) and red-zone carries percentage (RB14) in 2020.
Last year, he couldn’t catch a lightly tossed beach ball, but if Dobbins improves in the area he’s sure to crack the position’s top-15. At his current RB16 ADP (25.79 overall), plenty of profit potential exists. Baltimore’s offensive line, even after dealing Orlando Brown, remains rather formidable. Load up. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Ravens
Marquise Brown, WR
Though capable of reaching speeds equivalent to a distressed damsel sprinting away from a blood-thirsty ax murderer in any horror flick, Brown is notoriously unreliable, a glaring drawback due to Jackson’s occasional inaccuracy and the receiver’s route-running flaws. He tallied an impressive 25.2% target share a season ago, but his 5-foot-9, 166-pound frame isn’t indicative of a traditional WR1. No surprise, he was WR96 in contested catch rate last year. He added more branches to the tree, but he’s at his best sprinting upfield outside the numbers.
Brown’s WR7 standing in unrealized air yards combined with his No. 86 ranking in on-target percentage imply he left a truckload of yards on the field in 2020. That’s true, but with Bateman now on roster, arguably Jackson’s most talented receiver he’s ever thrown to, the speedster is sure to see a workload reduction. He’ll continue to run effective streak routes and connect with Jackson on explosive pass plays, but ‘Hollywood’ isn’t a nickname that applies. For fantasy purposes, expect him to be more downtown Yuma. Going at WR38 in average drafts (86.00 overall), he may not finish inside the position’s top-50. — Brad Evans
Marquise Brown, WR
Brown was miscast as an alpha receiver from the time he stepped on an NFL field. His efficiency numbers lagged as he was called upon to carry the passing attack as an outside receiver. Brown ranked 79th out of 94 wide receivers (with at least 15 man coverage targets) in yards per route run (1.14) against man coverage. For our fantasy purposes, his performance was equally dismal. He ranked outside the top 30 at his position in fantasy points per route run (31st) and fantasy points per target (47th).
Despite the additions made around him by Baltimore’s front office, he’s still being drafted by fantasy gamers as a WR3 or high-end WR4. Brown barely met this level of production last year (WR36, PPR points per game) while garnering the 12th highest target share among wideouts. Avoid him at his puffed-up ADP and instead target the real Ravens’ alpha later in drafts who is poised to break out (*whispers* “Rashod Bateman”). — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Ravens
Rashod Bateman, WR
Bateman can supplant Marquise Brown as the Ravens’ alpha wide receiver as early as this season. While a low-volume passing attack might scare many off, there are still targets and upside to be had for Bateman in Baltimore. Brown’s massive target equity in this passing offense is nothing new for Greg Roman. Roman has featured one receiver heavily in other stops, with Anquan Boldin (27.1%), Michael Crabtree (22.5%) and Sammy Watkins (20.5%) all commanding target shares north of 20%.
Bateman showed versatility in his final two seasons with the Golden Gophers to suggest he’ll succeed moving all around the formation. In 2019-2020, Bateman finished eighth in yards per route run among all wideouts with at least 50 targets in each season. This was despite playing extremely different roles in the offense. In 2019 Bateman operated outside on 79.2% of his snaps before moving inside during his final year (67.1% slot). Bateman’s current ADP (WR55, 126.6 overall) is a slam dunk value to covet in all drafts. — Derek Brown
Rashod Bateman, WR
When Batemen landed with the run-heavy Ravens on draft night, the collective groan that rose from the fantasy community was overblown. He possesses a skill only Christian Kirk could dream of — route polish. Working as both a traditional X and slot receiver in college with Minnesota, his versatility, precision and after-catch abilities (36 broken tackles on 147 career college catches) are exactly what Baltimore’s often sickly passing attack needs. If he can make a cannonball splash in camp and develop an instant rapport with Jackson, there’s a shot for 90-plus targets in Year 1. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Ravens 2012
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Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 Wins (-154, DraftKings)
Baltimore is loaded on both sides of the ball and boasts a schedule featuring eight teams with projected win totals of 8.2 or less. The Ravens have the firepower to match the 12.5 wins they have averaged over the last two seasons. — Derek Brown
Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP (+1600, DraftKings)
DBro’s view on Jackson hits the bull’s eye. Despite being arguably the most invigorating playmaker in the league, he’s still undervalued. The Ravens, sporting a 10.5 wins total at most ‘books, are a contender. If it all comes together, he’ll join a pretty exclusive club of multi-time MVP winners. — Brad Evans
