Booms, Busts and Breakouts: San Francisco 49ers

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The 2019 Bridesmaids.

Booms

Raheem Mostert, RB

In a close race with George Kittle — who should set a career benchmark in touchdowns with Deebo Samuel sidelined for an undetermined portion of the regular season and due to general positive TD regression — to greatly exceed ADP, Mostert is an undervalued rusher cemented into a favorable fantasy environment. 

Examining the secondary data, Mostert was Toyota Prius-efficient in 2019. He ranked No. 2 in yards created per touch, No. 8 in yards after contact per attempt and generated a missed tackle on 20.5% of his attempts. He also performed at peak effectiveness near the goal line crossing the chalk six times on just 14 red-zone opportunities. Though only sporadically used in the pass game, it’s rather amazing what he accomplished on just 32.2% of the Niners’ opportunity share. 

With his financial dispute resolved and trade demands suppressed, he’s in line to head up Kyle Shannahan’s RBBC. Tevin Coleman and tissue-paper durable satellite Jerick McKinnon will command touches, but Mostert should register 13-15 touches per game. Reportedly bulked up to handle a more vigorous workload, he’s in a phenomenal position to turn a hefty profit at his RB27 (54.5) ADP. San Francisco’s top-five offensive line and unbending defense only solidifies that viewpoint. — Brad Evans

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Busts

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB

The Handsome One tossed as many touchdowns as he presumably logged bedroom conquests in 2019. He averaged a mere 29.8 attempts per game but, due to his red-zone impact, totaled 27 touchdowns and averaged 248.7 yards per game. He also ranked appreciably in adjusted completion percentage (QB5) and deep-ball passer rating (QB12). 

So, what gives? 

With Samuel, a player who accounted for 24.7% of the club’s red-zone target share and 802 yards, out for multiple regular-season weeks, it’s highly unlikely that Garoppolo repeats what he accomplished in 2019. This is a Shanahan offense sure to run the rock early and often leaning heavily on its staunch defense to maintain leads. He won’t leave gun in holster like he did in the playoffs, but shaving 4-6 TDs off last year’s total is most probable. — Brad Evans

Raheem Mostert, RB

The greatest player in NFL preseason history finally got his time to shine down the stretch last season and shine he did. The journeyman ranked seventh among running backs in fantasy scoring from Week 12 on, notching seven rushing scores. Only Derrick Henry had more over that span. Mostert carried that momentum into the playoffs, posting a massive 220 rushing yards and four scores in the Conference Championship game against the Packers.

All of that certainly sounds good, and Mostert is the favorite to lead the San Francisco backfield heading into 2020. However, he’s far from a lock to keep that role all season. Kyle Shanahan’s hot-hand approach can change fantasy fortunes quickly. Mostert is also no spring chicken at 28 years old. There’s upside to be had here, but don’t go too overboard. Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon are going to be used in this backfield so it isn’t safe to assume that Mostert picks up where he left off. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Brandon Aiyuk, WR

COVID-19’s relentless grip on the country has increased the burden for every first-year NFL player. Without minicamp or access to team facilities the entire summer, all are dealing with an unusual transition. How quickly guys adjust is undoubtedly incalculable.

The former Sun Devil was known as the YAC king during his days in Tempe. He ranked No. 6 among all FBS wideouts in yards after catch per reception last season (10.9). His explosion off the line, 6-foot-8 wingspan and underneath-and-go characteristics are attractive, however, he was only a one-year wonder with Arizona St. 

With Samuel shelved for an undetermined amount of time, the door is wide open for Ayiuk. If he can resemble D.J. Moore from Day 1, he has a shot to make an instant impact. Acquiring him in the late innings of your draft (WR61, 156.3 ADP) is well worth the minimal risk. — Brad Evans

Brandon Aiyuk, WR

The athletic receiver out of Arizona State overcame adversity and worked his way up from the JUCO level into Division 1 football. Aiyuk wasn’t much of a factor in 2018 with just 33 catches on 47 targets, but he took a huge step forward with N’Keal Harry out of the mix last season. He finished the year with 65 catches for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns. Extremely efficient, He saw just 19 deep-ball targets, but posted 384 yards on those targets (which ranked 38th in the nation).

While Aiyuk only ran 4.50 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, he flashed impressive numbers in the explosion drills with a 40-inch vertical jump and 10-foot-8 in the broad. The 49ers grabbed him in the first round, and it looked like he was set up to slide in behind Deebo Samuel in the pecking order. However, that all changed when Samuel injured his foot in the offseason.

There’s a chance Samuel misses regular-season time, which could position Aiyuk as the top wideout in San Francisco. Even with Samuel back, Aiyuk will be in the mix. His explosive playmaking ability positions him well as a deeper rookie to know in this year’s class. He’s worth a late-round dart in fantasy drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe