Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from ‘The Big Noise’ himself, Brad Evans.
George Kittle OVER 5.5 touchdowns (-110, PointsBet)
Next to Travis Kelce, there isn’t a greater tour de force at the tight end position than Kittle. The product of the Iowa TE factory, he’s developed into an indispensable weapon whether in fantasy, betting or reality. Expected to earn his Skittles in San Francisco, he’s worth the future ticket investment. Here’s why:
- Deebo Samuel is already broken. The second-year wide receiver, who suffered a gnarly Jones fracture in June, is slated to miss significant time. Estimates range anywhere from one to two months of games missed. Last fall, Samuel accounted for 18.1% of the overall target share and 24.7% of Jimmy Garoppolo red-zone looks. Unless Jalen Hurd, Kendrick Bourne or rotten-corpse Dante Pettis steal away those precious targets, Kittle should see a nice uptick from last season’s 22 red-zone targets in 15 games.
- Positive TD regression is a phrase that signifies the strong likelihood a player, based on workload and lack of scoring conversions, makes up for end-zone spikes lost. It’s comical, Kittle, who accounted for 28.2% of the red-zone target share last year, crossed the chalk only five times. Equally unlucky in 2018, he caught 14 passes inside the 20, reaching the pylons just twice. A premier downfield threat — he ranked No. 5 among WRs and TEs in YAC per reception in ’19 — it’s equally perplexing he doesn’t hit more home runs.
Bottom line, Kittle is in a fantastic spot to establish new career benchmarks in multiple categories. Motivated to land a lucrative contract and attached to an accurate QB, he’s a prime candidate for 7-plus scores this fall. Smash the living daylights out of the over.
