Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Jason Garrett’s Young Guns.
Booms
Evan Engram, TE
We rarely see rookie tight ends put up big fantasy numbers, but Engram did just that in 2017 when he finished as the No. 5 option. But since then he’s been a bundle of inconsistency and injury. Engram has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, and while he does have 10 top-10 weekly finishes, he’s also been outside the top-15 seven times over that span.
While this may not paint the most flattering picture for Engram, it’s actually a good thing for fantasy purposes. Engram is very gettable in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. With Daniel Jones under center in New York, we will likely still see consistency issues out of Engram. However, he also offers big time fantasy upside if he’s able to stay healthy. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Darius Slayton, WR
In the timeless words of Sir Mix-a-lot, Slayton is long, strong and down to get the friction on. Out of nowhere last year, the fifth-round pick splashed onto the fantasy scene, establishing a tight bond with fellow rookie Daniel Jones. On just 16.6% of the Giants’ target share he hauled in 48 passes for 750 yards and eight touchdowns. Earning valuable reps with Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard sidelined, he ranked WR16 Weeks 10-17. Most impressively, he tallied a 14.3-yard mark in average depth of target and slotted respectably in YAC per reception at WR33.
Some will contend a classic sophomore slump is on the horizon. With Tate, Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley firmly in the vertical mix, it’s possible the youngster is the litter runt. However, as the FTN Fantasy splits tool shows, Slayton averaged 3.1 receptions and 60.6 yards per game while totaling four touchdowns with Tate and Shepard on the field. His resulting 13.7 average DraftKings points accrued in those six games was nothing to scoff at.
Often acquirable in the double-digit rounds of 12-team 0.5 PPR drafts (WR42, 104.2), Slayton is the true No. 1 option for the G-Men. Again, don’t underestimate the relationship he forged with Jones last season. — Brad Evans
(Want in on everything FTN has to offer? Sign up now!)
Busts
Darius Slayton, WR
One of the most buzzed-about receivers outside of the top-30 at the position, Slayton flashed major fantasy juice last season with two top-five weekly performances. The first came in Week 10, when Slayton torched the Jets for 121 yards and two scores on 10 catches, and the second was a five-catch, 154-yard, two-score outing against Philly in Week 14.
Those two performances are certainly eye-catching, but Slayton also failed to deliver most weeks with just two other finishes inside the top-30. The challenge with evaluating Slayton’s fantasy value is how he’ll be positioned on the depth chart. It’s likely he’ll be behind Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate in the pecking order, which means another year of boom-or-bust fantasy production. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Sterling Shepard, WR
The oft-injured wide receiver is quite possibly more brittle than any random troll’s ego on Twitter. He’s missed 11 combined games over the past three seasons. Candidly, he could be one rung bell away from an unfortunate premature retirement. Bust, cometh.
To be fair, Shepard, when in uniform, is a better-than-advertised contributor. Last season, for example, on a robust 23.4% of the Giants’ target share, he averaged 5.7 receptions and 57.6 yards per game while totaling three touchdowns. His resulting 14.0 PPR points per game ranked WR27. His success rates on comebacks, slants and curls label him a trustworthy short-to-intermediate option. Still, Jones registered an uninspiring 78.4 passer rating when firing passes in Shepard’s general direction.
Shepard is a talented player and accomplished route runner. However, his general fragility says Anthony Miller, Mike Williams or Jerry Jeudy are more attractive at a similar juncture (WR48, 116.8 ADP) in fantasy drafts. — Brad Evans
Breakouts
Daniel Jones, QB
The 2019 first-rounder got on the field early in his rookie season and immediately showed massive upside with a second-place finish in Week 3 in which he accounted for four total touchdowns – two passing and two rushing. Jones went on to post three more top-five finishes, but also finished outside the top 20 four times after assuming the starting job.
That’s really the key if you’re considering drafting him this year. Jones comes with an enormous fantasy ceiling in any given week, but the youngster will almost certainly be prone to volatility in 2020. The good news is that you aren’t going to have to pay for him, as Jones is almost certainly going to go in the late rounds. Jones’ ability to rack up fantasy points on the ground plus his upside as a passer make him a very appealing breakout candidate for the late-round quarterback crowd. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Daniel Jones, QB
Invest in Danny Dimes at his very affordable QB14 ADP (124.5 overall), and dollars could be in your immediate future. The sophomore QB, once a punchline when Dave Gettleman selected him surprisingly early in the 2019 NFL Draft, could take a quantum leap forward in his maturation.
Jones is on the precipice of a breakout. Surrounded by dependable, though flimsy, weapons in Golden Tate, Shepard, Slayton, Engram and Barkley, he’s not exactly sitting on a lawn chair in a fantasy desert. His dual-threat attributes (232.8 passing yards per game, 21.5 rushing in ‘19) and noteworthy 26 total touchdowns in 13 starts last fall arrow up. And he reached that height ranking outside the top-20 in several completion percentage categories. Toss tighter spirals and he could join esteemed multidimensional passers Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray well inside the top-10 QB ranks. New York’s overly forgiving defense only enhances the chances.
As stated in my All-Mancrush Team piece, Jones is quite possibly the best quarterback value on any fantasy draft board. If you exercise patience at the position and target him, you could wind up splashing pay-dirt in the range of 4,000 passing yards, 350 rushing yards and 28-30 total touchdowns. — Brad Evans
