Booms, Busts and Breakouts: New Orleans Saints

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Bourbon Street Studs. 

Booms

Alvin Kamara, RB

Kamara’s fantasy value, hampered by ankle, knee and back ailments, stumbled around Bourbon Street in a slushy-fueled haze for much of 2019. His yardage (1,330) and reception (81) outputs on a notable 66.0% of the opportunity share still intoxicated investors, but only sporadic end-zone splashes (6) left most parched. It’s why many in the fantasy community are skeptical he can rebound this fall. Goal-line gremlins Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill lurk … 

Don’t fret, gamer. Kamara is about to rain down points from the heavens. Despite his physical limitations last season, he maintained a high standing in yards after contact per attempt (3.18) and missed tackle percentage (22.2). His in-the-Matrix moves are why he’s one of the most elusive rushers in the league. Healthy, entrenched in an explosive Saints offense and working behind an elite offensive line, he’s due to reward backers with double-figure TD and multiple 100-total yard performances. Remember, he’s two years removed from 51 red-zone attempts. Consider last year’s 26 red-zone grips, just six inside the five, an anomaly. 

In the end, don’t be shocked if Kamara dethrones Christian McCaffrey as the virtual game’s most valuable RB. Scorching hot take? Not really. — Brad Evans

Alvin Kamara, RB

Touchdowns can be very misleading for fantasy purposes. Kamara is a prime example. Sure, he was a bit of a fantasy disappointment last season with a ninth-place fantasy finish among running backs. But the Saints back was actually very efficient on the ground with a healthy 3.2 yards after contact per attempt. He also averaged a rock-solid 18 touches per game.

The problem: he scored 12 fewer touchdowns than he did in 2018. That’s the difference of a whopping 72 fantasy points. Touchdown production is notoriously fickle year over year, so don’t read into last season’s dip too much. Kamara is a strong candidate for positive regression and remains one of the most explosive players in the league. He’s locked in as a top-five fantasy pick. — Jeff Ratcliffe

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Busts

Jared Cook, TE

Lambasted as an uber-talented player who always underachieved early in his career, Cook torched the competition like a crème brûlée in 2019. Maximizing his touches, he tallied 43 receptions for 705 yards and nine touchdowns ranking No. 1 in fantasy points per while netting a ridiculous 16.4 yards per catch. 

Cook’s accomplishments were impressive, but his miniscule 13.5% target share deflates confidence. So does the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, who’s sure to overtake primary slot duties from Tre'Quan Smith and wrest away precious Drew Brees looks from the tight end. 

As defenses key on Michael Thomas and any number of New Orleans’ weapons, Cook will have his moments. However, his impacts as a TE1 will be few and far between. Workload is almost everything in fantasy and the veteran simply won’t have it. Point blank, he’s overvalued at his TE10, 113.3 ADP. — Brad Evans

Emmanuel Sanders, WR

Old wide receivers typically aren’t the stuff that fantasy championships are made of, but Sanders does have a prime opportunity given the thin depth chart in New Orleans. The Saints essentially have Michael Thomas and nobody else. And to Sanders’ credit, he was able to post some solid stat lines after being traded to the 49ers last season, including a first-place finish in Week 14.

Unlike in San Francisco, he’ll be catching passes from a future Hall of Famer this season. That said, Thomas is going to command a massive share of the pie, so don’t expect heavy volume. That means we’ll likely see a very low upside profile from Sanders this year. Sure, he has a name that you recognize, but it isn’t wise to take the cheese on Sanders even as a late-round pick this year. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Latavius Murray, RB

As discussed above, my affections for Kamara are unwavering. However, if the injury imp continues to snack on the incumbent’s lower appendages, limiting or sidelining him for any portion of the season, Murray is sure to step in and bludgeon would-be tacklers. 

His performances against Chicago and Arizona in 2019 set the stage. In those contests he reached 150 total yards, grabbed 14 passes and crossed the chalk four times. Brutalizing between the tackles, he ranked No. 18 in yards after contact per attempt (3.18) and forced a missed tackle on 18.9% of his carries. When called upon, Murray always inflicts damage, especially operating behind one of the game’s most inflexible offensive lines. 

Murray (RB46, 108.5 ADP), similar to Dallas’ Tony Pollard and Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison, is one of the most cherished second fiddles in fantasy. Due to a reduced volume, he’s a matchup-only flex player most weeks, but in the event disaster strikes Kamara, he would vault into the RB top-five overnight. — Brad Evans

Tre'Quan Smith, WR

Through two seasons in the league, Smith has yet to show that he can be a consistent fantasy option. That said, he has shown a big-time weekly ceiling. In Week 5 of the 2018 season, Smith found the end zone twice and racked up 111 yards on just three catches. That ability to produce an entire week’s worth of production on minimal volume is appeal, albeit volatile.

Still, Smith has been extremely efficient with his touches. Over the last two seasons, he’s caught 46 balls and has scored on 10 of them. That’s a whopping 21.7% touchdown rate. Of course the big problem for Smith is volume. With Thomas, Sanders, Cook and Kamara in place, he’s at best the fifth target in the Saints offense. However, a Sanders injury could open the door to more work. While he may not be worth draft, Smith is a high-ceiling player worth keeping an eye on as we head into the season. Be prepared to pounce on waivers if he shows signs of breaking out. — Jeff Ratcliffe