Booms, Busts and Breakouts: New England Patriots

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Sheepish Belichicks.

Booms

Cam Newton, QB

It was a quiet offseason for the former league MVP, as Newton was without a team for over three months following the kickoff of NFL free agency back in March. Of course, all of that changed in early July when he signed with the Patriots. Newton is a big departure from what the Pats had in Tom Brady, but he certainly has the chance to be just as effective for fantasy purposes.

Don’t give me those Jarrett Stidham narratives. I fully expect Newton to grab the starting job and run with it. That said, injuries absolutely have to be factored into Newton's fantasy value after he missed 16 games over the past two seasons. But the beauty to Newton is that a lot of folks, including my esteemed colleague, simply have no faith in the veteran quarterback. So you’re going to get him essentially for free in the late rounds.

New England has shown over the years that they aren’t going to make personnel fit their scheme. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have consistently morphed their offense to fit their personnel. They’re going to do the same thing with Newton this year. While he may not have the best surrounding cast at the skill positions, Newton’s major fantasy upside and relatively high floor thanks to his impressive ability as a runner make him a very intriguing late-round target. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Julian Edelman, WR

Though he’s no longer attached to his on-field bestie Tom Brady, the changing of the QB guard in New England isn’t a doomsday scenario for Edelman. In terms of age, he’s an extra añejo, but the slot man’s game still packs buzz. On 26.2% of the target share he hauled in 100 balls for 1,117 yards and six scores last season. Also snatching 39 red-zone looks, he once again proved to be a PPR dynamo. 

Edelman’s WR13 standing in catchable target rate will swell, but he, typically selected as a back-end WR3 even in receptions heavy drafts, is sure to be a focal point. Newton’s T-rex tendencies from 2018, his most accurate season as a passer (QB8 in adjusted completion percentage), accidentally forged the groundwork for an instant chemistry with Edelman. If a love connection is made in camp, the slippery wideout is a bankable 80-plus catch contributor this fall. Just look at the competition around him. Mohamed Sanu? N'Keal Harry? Jakobi Meyers? Please. 

Remaining healthy is always a concern, but the decorated receiver is a safe, and cheap, investment at his WR34 (78.6) ADP. — Brad Evans

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Busts

Julian Edelman, WR

We can take a lot of what we know about Edelman for fantasy purposes and throw it out, as he'll no longer be catching passes from Tom Brady. With Newton under center we’re undoubtedly going to get a different look from the offense, and it's tough to expect the same sort of volume for Edelman that we’ve seen over the last half decade.

We also need to remember that Edelman is now one of the league's elder statesmen at wide receiver. His age coupled with less volume really pushes Edelman down the board and puts a major cap on his fantasy ceiling. Older players with limited fantasy upside are typically not the things fantasy championships are made of. It's fine to view him as a low-upside WR3 option, but anything more is just too ambitious. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Cam Newton, QB

When talking colorful post-game fashion choices, dramatic interviews or social media hype videos, Cam is in a class of his own. However, when it comes to box score contributions, at least projected ones in 2020, he’s rather ordinary. 

Optimists who pitch a Newton New England revival are selling snake oil. Rosy moments will occur, but they’ll largely be infrequent. As discussed with the Edelman take above, the passer’s short-armed 2018 unintentionally prepared him for the Pats’ brand of dink and dunk. Still, this is a franchise which wins with ball control and defense. Behind a more rigid offensive line, one that ranked inside the top-10 in multiple efficiency stats last fall, expect to see a more pocket-tied Cam. Gone are the days of 500-plus rushing yards. With a relatively thin and unproven arsenal at his disposal and given his fluttering deep balls, 3,500-plus passing yards is likely also long in the past. 

The passer’s emergence from free agency was overdue. Belichick once gain, made a shrewd all-upside signing. He’s a household name and a former fantasy Goliath, but expect to see a more conservative Cam in Foxboro. In the end, toeing the QB15 line could be a stretch. Sportsbook lines verify. Search his name in our Prop Shop if you refuse to believe. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

N'Keal Harry, WR

A first-round selection in 2019, Harry didn’t do much in his rookie campaign thanks to an ankle injury that sidelined him for nine games to start the year. From there, he didn’t do much despite the Patriots desperate need for receiving help for Tom Brady.

But the theme of this article is the impact of Brady being out of the mix. Newton historically had some of his best fantasy seasons when he had big-bodied receivers in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess in Carolina. Harry certainly brings a similar skill set with his size and the ability to play about the rim that he showed in the college level at Arizona State.

Better yet, the Patriots really didn’t upgrade their wide receiver room this offseason. Sure, they brought in the perpetually injured Marqise Lee, but it’s hard to envision him leapfrogging Harry in the pecking order. New England also drafted two tight ends, but neither figures to be a major factor in the passing game. While all of that does mean the potential for a big role for Harry, he's still far from a sure thing. Still, there’s upside to be had here. Harry is worth a dart if he's hanging around in the late rounds. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Marqise Lee, WR

Admittedly, this is a Hail Mary akin to yours truly prying Megan Fox away from Machine Gun Kelly, but it’s worth a shot. Hey, there are some individuals reading this who play in 20-team leagues. 

ACL, shoulder and ankle setbacks cost Lee 25 games over the past two seasons. The last time we saw him over a sizable sample, 14 games in 2017, he averaged a respectable 4.3 receptions and 54.0 yards per game, crossing the chalk three times. Working outside and occasionally in the slot (21.7% of snaps) that year, he clocked 0.37 fantasy points per route which ranked WR34. Recall, butt-of-jokes Blake Bortles was his QB.

Edelman and James White will be Cam’s primary short-to-intermediate field crutches. But with a strong August showing, Lee could command some attention, too. If he can regain his ‘17 form, 50-plus receptions are not out of the question. Keep him in mind late in bestballs. — Brad Evans