Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Detroit Lions

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Motor City Cats. 

Booms

Matthew Stafford, QB

In the beer-chugging ranks among NFC North quarterbacks, Stafford reigns supreme as the unrivaled king. Among NFC passers as a whole, he may vie for a similar crown — top fantasy QB. Yes, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are the heavy favorites, but the veteran slinger is a true-blue dark horse. 

Before a fractured back derailed his 2019, Stafford bombarded defenses with the firepower of an F-18. Over eight games, he averaged a ridiculous 312.4 pass yards per game and tossed 19 touchdowns. Stretch out that production over a 16-game pace and we’re talking 4,998 yards and 38 TDs. Mind blowing. His resulting 177.6 fantasy points ranked No. 6 Weeks 1-9 and his 0.55 fantasy points per dropback slotted at No. 7. He also set the pace in average depth of target tallying an 11.4-yard mark. Bombs away, indeed. 

Flanked by upside talents Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson and tacky-handed rookie RB D'Andre Swift, he’s a candidate for 4,500 passing yards and 30-35 TDs. Keep in mind despite last season’s obscene surface numbers he ranked QB20 or below in multiple completion percentage categories. If Stafford can hone his accuracy, continue to dial up deep balls and remain healthy, he’ll profit generously at his 121.7 (QB12) ADP. — Brad Evans

Kenny Golladay, WR

The breakout officially happened for Golladay last season, as the Lions wideout posted a massive 18.3 yards per catch and led all receivers with 11 touchdowns. While his target volume was nearly identical to 2018, Golladay benefited from the Lions pushing the ball downfield more and saw a 27% increase in his air yards. Only nine wide receivers saw a deeper average depth of target and none of those players had as many targets as Golladay.

Perhaps the most impressive bit from last season is that he managed to put up this production with Matthew Stafford out for half the year. With Stafford back under center Golladay has a massive ceiling. Only Jameis Winston put up more air yards that Stafford over the first nine weeks of the 2019 season. All those air yards translate to fantasy upside for Golladay. He’s locked in as a top-10 fantasy wideout. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Marvin Jones, WR

If you’ve listened to “Fade The Noise” on SiriusXM’s Fantasy Channel (M-F, 2-4 p.m. ET), you’ve heard my cohort Brandon Funston and I spar over Jones multiple times. He’s an advocate, yours truly an adversary. 

Giving credit where it’s due, the veteran wideout cashed for fantasy purposes last year. David Blough and Jeff Driskel, splitting starting duties with Stafford sidelined, didn’t deter him. On 92 targets he reeled in 62 receptions for 779 yards and nine touchdowns. WR19 in catchable target rate and a laudable ranker in average depth of target (13.7), he was a reliable WR3 in 12-team formats. However, his 1.81 YAC per reception left much to be desired. Really, he was the definition of “TD-dependent.” 

Is his line repeatable? It’s within the realm of outcomes, especially with Stafford back. However, if he shaves 2-3 scores off last year’s total, he doesn’t provide enough yardage oomph to justify his WR3 price in 0.5 PPR drafts (WR36, 83.5). — Brad Evans

Kerryon Johnson, RB

Hype doesn’t always translate into fantasy production, as Johnson showed us last year. The Lions back ended up being a third-round selection in fantasy drafts and managed just one top-10 performance before being sidelined for nearly half the season with a knee injury. While Johnson saw decent volume in his eight appearances with an average of 15.5 touches per game, his ugly efficiency and inability to create after contact fail to inspire.

Perhaps that’s why the Lions stepped up to the plate on Day 2 of April’s draft and selected Georgia’s D'Andre Swift. In today’s NFL, teams typically don’t draft running backs on Day 1 or 2 unless they really feel they have a need at the position. This move certainly wasn’t the vote of confidence Johnson truthers were looking for. While Johnson does still figure to be involved, Swift’s presence takes Johnson out of the front-end RB2 conversation and positions him as an RB3 committee back. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

D'Andre Swift, RB

During his tenure with the Georgia Bulldogs, Swift earned his Snausages. He was a slightly above-average rusher (evidenced by his RB37 total yards after contact and RB40 total missed tackles forced last season), but his contact balance, ability to shed arm tackles and patience stood out on tape. More impressively, he was a highly reliable receiver equipped with an expanded route tree and creativity after the catch. He racked 95 receptions in three seasons with UGA dropping just three passes on 76 catchable balls. 

Swift will work in tandem with Kerryon Johnson to begin the season. The two backs have comparable skill sets and complement one another nicely. However, because Johnson’s lower extremities are tenuously held together with rubber bands and Bubblicious, odds are considerable the rookie elevates into a workhorse role at some point this season. His stout frame (5-foot-8, 212 pounds) and skill set suggest he can handle any workload increase. 

In the middle rounds of fantasy drafts maximizing value and upside are paramount. Swift (RB26, 52.4 ADP), immersed in a terrific numbers-pumping environment, is an ideal target capable of 1,000-plus combined yards and 5-7 TDs, even with a healthy Johnson. — Brad Evans

D'Andre Swift, RB

Heading into the NFL draft, a number of pundits had Swift as the top running back on the board. While he didn’t end up being the first player selected at his position, there’s still a lot to like about his game. Smith was hyper-efficient at Georgia, averaging a massive 6.6 yards per carry and scoring a combined 25 touchdowns in his college career.

But one of the big themes of this year’s draft was suboptimal landing spots for the top prospects. Don’t get me wrong, because I do think Swift will have success in Detroit. But at least initially, he looks destined for a committee with Johnson already in house. That will likely mean some frustrating stat lines to start the season.

The key is to remain patient as the cream tends to rise in fantasy football. We’ve seen this script play out nearly every year where the rookie running back gets off to a slow start in September. Fantasy owners then get impatient and that can lead to some bad decisions. Fantasy football is a marathon, not a sprint, and that same back who looked like a bust in the beginning of the year can emerge as a boom down the stretch. Just look at Miles Sanders last year. So if you draft Swift, keep this in mind. It could be a sluggish start, but he has the juice to deliver down the stretch. — Jeff Ratcliffe