Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 8

The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning  NFL props picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

We’re targeting small same-game parlays that underestimate the correlation involved. On the season, we’re now 6-20 (+2.11 units) on the same-game parlays from this article. Let’s see if we can bounce back from a disappointing week that included a Miles Sanders SGP that looked well on its way to +450 win after the opening drive

Dallas Goedert anytime TD & 55+ receiving yards

(+350 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Dallas Goedert posted a .45 WOPR in Week 7 following Zach Ertz’s trade to Arizona. This is a huge step up from his season-long .29 WOPR. Despite his somewhat underwhelming role prior to last week, he leads the team with six red zone targets and two touchdowns. 

Mike Gesicki anytime TD & 47+ receiving yards

(+436 FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Mike Gesicki’s .49 WOPR since Tua Tagovailoa returned is indicative of how strong of a role the oversized slot receiver has. He’s converted two of three red zone targets into TDs and should be a key piece whenever they’re in scoring range.

The key here is the pace – Buffalo and Miami are projected for 26.3 seconds per snap, the second-fastest pace of the slate. Miami should throw the ball a ton due to both game script and their anemic 2.77 projected line yards per rush. If FanDuel opens up alternate receiving yards lines, I would love to get better odds on around ten to twenty more yards.

Ezekiel Elliott 2+ TDs & 60+ rushing yards

(+550 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

From the offensive efficiency tool:

Dallas’ 6.3 projected line yards per rush is the highest I’ve ever seen! I want to take advantage of this in a big way, but I’m hesitant to target a high yardage total because it’s possible Minnesota will force Dallas to throw by loading the box, snap after snap. Consequently, I’d rather bet on the pace of this game leading to scoring opportunities regardless of how Dallas achieves them, at which point I expect them to feed Ezekiel Elliott with success.

My fourth pick will involve the Cleveland rushing attack. I’ll post it once props are available for SGPs (held up by Nick Chubb’s questionable tag).