Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
While we are still only in April, and the NFL Draft hasn’t even happened yet, that doesn’t mean fantasy drafts aren’t in full swing.
Plenty of best ball teams are being drafted, and while it may seem far too early, who cares? Fantasy drafts are fun, and because it is so early, there are some clear ADP mistakes that can be taken advantage of.
Let’s take a look.
2022 Fantasy Football pre-draft ADP
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Underdog ADP: 93.3, RB29
Again, things are obviously going to change quite a bit over the next few months. But if you are doing drafts right now, James Conner has been one of the best values. Last year’s RB5 in all of fantasy, Conner is currently coming off the board as RB29 on Underdog, which is just insane. He scored a whopping 18 total touchdowns last year, while only Jonathan Taylor saw more carries from inside the five-yard line than Conner’s 16. The Cardinals rewarded him with a contract extension, and with Chase Edmonds now in Miami, some more consistent passing-down work could also be headed his way. In five games with Edmonds inactive last year, Conner saw his targets per game climb from 1.3 to 5.4, while his receptions per game went from 1.2 with Edmonds active to 5.0 with him out of the lineup. There aren’t many running backs in fantasy right now with a true every-down role who also see all of the goal-line work. He should be drafted as a top-12 running back right now.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Underdog ADP: 78.4, RB25
Without question, the top two values at the moment are Conner and Leonard Fournette, who will return to his fantasy-friendly role in the Tampa Bay offense. Fournette is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay, finishing as the RB6 in PPR formats. He separated himself from Ronald Jones and became the workhorse during the second half of the season. The passing volume was terrific for Fournette, who ranked seventh among all running backs with a 14% target share, while his 49 first-read targets paced the position. And from Week 4 on, Fournette averaged a healthy 19.5 touches per game. The question isn’t whether or not Fournette should be ranked as a top-10 running back in fantasy football, but whether top-five is too aggressive or not.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Underdog ADP: 96.4, WR45
It honestly doesn’t matter if you are excited about the idea of Courtland Sutton catching passes from Russell Wilson or not. WR45 is far too low for the talented wideout. Yes, I get it. His numbers when playing alongside Jerry Jeudy last season were downright frightening, as he averaged just 3.8 targets and 19.1 receiving yards in those 10 contests. However, I expect the passing volume to increase for Denver this season, and he should mesh extremely well with his new quarterback. Sutton projects to be the deep target in this offense, and we know Wilson has been one of the league’s best deep-ball passers. Over his last two fully healthy seasons (2019, 2020), 14.3% of Wilson’s pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, while he’s been among the league-leaders in end-zone throws. Meanwhile, using FTN Fantasy’s Passing Direction stats, you will find that 13.4% of Wilsons’ attempts last year were to the deep left part of the field, the highest rate among all qualified quarterbacks. Meanwhile, 14.3% of Sutton’s targets last year came from that area of the field, which ranked 10th in football. I think he’ll be used very similarly to how Tyler Lockett was used in Seattle, which can lead to some frustrating outings but also some week-altering ones, too.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Underdog ADP: 67.8, WR33
Despite plenty of trade rumors throughout the offseason, Brandin Cooks signed an extension to remain in Houston for the next two seasons. And while it may not seem exciting, Cooks is once again guaranteed to see tremendous volume. In 2021, Cooks saw a 25% target share (top 10), while also seeing 37% of Houston’s air yards (6th) and 28% of the first-read targets. He also saw at least 25% of the team’s targets in seven different games this past season. And while his quarterback situation certainly isn’t the greatest in football, Davis Mills was fine last year. And in 12 games alongside Mills last year, Cooks still averaged nearly nine targets, 6.1 receptions, 65.5 yards and over 15 PPR points per game. Houston will add some more talent on offense during the draft, but it won’t change the fact that Cooks will remain a target machine.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Underdog ADP: 100.2, WR46
After five seasons in Pittsburgh, JuJu Smith-Schuster now joins Kansas City and suddenly becomes the No. 1 wide receiver after the Tyreek Hill trade. Smith-Schuster has been very underwhelming since his breakout 2018 campaign when he caught 111 balls for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns, though he has dealt with injuries and awful quarterback play. Still only 25 years old, Smith-Schuster now gets to play with an elite quarterback and should be able to walk into 90-100 receptions. And after seeing a laughably aDOT over the last two seasons, Smith-Schuster will remain in the slot but could actually see some downfield targets with the Chiefs. He’s pretty easily a top-30 wide receiver for me in 2022.
