MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
It happens every year. Some veteran RB is looking good in best ball drafts before the NFL Draft, but then their team spends some serious draft capital at the position and, suddenly, they aren’t looking so hot anymore.
There are a handful of RBs who are likely to go on Day 2 this year – Jonathan Brooks, Jaylen Wright, Blake Corum and others – but there is no Bijan Robinson in this class. Even still, some vets should be nervous about their current status on the depth chart.
This article will examine the 3 RBs who won’t feel “safe” until after the draft.
All ADP data is from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool. And be sure to check out our free ADP exploration tool (free!) so you can spot ADP trends before the rest of the crowd.
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Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys didn’t retain Tony Pollard, so they are left with … well, pretty much nothing, now. Rico Dowdle is in his fourth year and has under 100 career rushing attempts. Deuce Vaughn was a sixth-round pick last year.
Dowdle’s ADP has come crashing down since Pollard left the Cowboys, from the 200+ range to around 175. But do we really expect the Cowboys to roll into the season with nobody else at RB?
This price is still cheap enough that it obviously becomes a fantastic value if Dowdle does end up being RB1 in Dallas. But his ADP will drop immediately back to the 200+ range if the Cowboys land one of the top RBs in this year’s draft.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon out, Zack Moss in (This led to an immediate 3.5-round ADP bump for Moss).
It’s entirely possible that Moss ends up being Cincy’s RB1 (with Chase Brown handling a lot of the valuable passing down work). But it’s also entirely possible that the Bengals will draft a RB, causing Moss’ value to plummet. They gave him a two-year, $8 million deal. That puts him in the same range as backups like Samaje Perine, Antonio Gibson, Jamaal Williams and late-career Austin Ekeler.
In other words, they ain’t paying Moss like a star, and maybe not even a starter. The draft will make Moss truthers sweat.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Similar to Moss, Gus Edwards replaces a long-term incumbent on a new team. Austin Ekeler is out, Edwards is in. But will Edwards really end up being “the guy?” As of right now, he looks like by far the best RB on the roster.
But the draft will be huge for Edwards’ value. He saw a three-round ADP bump after joining the Chargers (along with Ekeler leaving), but he’s still being drafted in the double-digit rounds, indicating that best ball drafters aren’t convinced he’ll be a workhorse in LA.
Also similar to Moss, the contract might be a big reason why. Edwards is making $3.25 million this year – less than Moss (see above) and similar to Jeff Wilson and AJ Dillon.
