First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Drafting talented rookie players in fantasy football leagues seems to be one of the keys to success every single season. The 2024 campaign was no different, as multiple first-year players not only impressed, but emerged as some of the best players in all of fantasy football.
Let’s take a look back at some of the most notable rookie performances of the season using the FTN StatsHub and what that means for 2025 and beyond.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
I mean, it’s Jan. 21, and he is still playing. So, yeah, I’d say Daniels’ rookie season has gone pretty well.
Daniels wasn’t just the best rookie quarterback in 2024, but one of the best at the position, period. He threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, leading Washington to a 12-win season where they ranked as a top-five offense in the NFL. The Commanders ranked fourth in points (2.81) and fifth in yards (37.2) per drive this season. From a fantasy perspective, Daniels finished as the QB6 in fantasy points per game (20.6). What impressed me the most, however, was how sharp he was in clutch time. As a rookie, Daniels ranked third in the league in EPA per dropback in the fourth quarter and overtime of games, while also ranking second in touchdown passes (12), fourth in completion rate (72.1%) and third in passer rating (115.9).
Daniels also provided plenty in the rushing department, averaging 9.3 carries and 51.5 rushing yards per game, scoring six touchdowns on the ground (including playoffs). His 891 regular season rushing yards were the ninth-most by a quarterback in NFL history. Between his elite passing and rushing, fast-paced, friendly offense and plenty of cap space to add more wide receivers, Daniels should be viewed as a top-five quarterback in fantasy going forward — and potentially real life, too.
| Jayden Daniels Is Clutch (4th quarter and OT) | ||
| Stat | Total | Rank |
| EPA/DB | 0.348 | 3rd |
| TDs | 12 | 2nd |
| CMP% | 72.1% | 4th |
| Passer Rating | 115.9 | 3rd |
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
On the flip side, Williams’ rookie season was not so successful.
We went into the year thinking Williams had the best situation a rookie quarterback has ever seen, but the offensive line and playcalling didn’t do him any favors. That said, make no mistake — Williams didn’t play well. He finished 17th in passing yards (3,541), 18th in touchdown passes (20) and 30th in EPA per dropback (-0.062). While he took care of the ball, the sacks were a massive issue, as Williams posted the league’s third-highest sack rate (9.9%). There were some positive signs, particularly once the team moved on from Shane Waldron. Once Thomas Brown took over, the Bears made a point of emphasis to get the ball out of Williams’ hands much faster. They also utilized Williams’ mobility more, as his scramble rate jumped by about two percent from Week 11 on, while Williams trailed only Patrick Mahomes in throws from outside the pocket during that span (48), averaging six per game.
Entering 2025, we already have a change for Williams. The Bears hired Ben Johnson as the team’s head coach, and assuming he’ll call plays, things are looking up for Chicago. Williams is arguably the best playcaller in the league right now, helping Jared Goff to fantasy finishes of QB6, QB7 and QB10 since becoming Detroit’s offensive coordinator in 2022. Look for way more movement and creativity from the Bears offense next year. This past season, 66.2% of Goff’s dropbacks had some sort of motion, a top-five rate in football. Williams, meanwhile, was at 47.9%, 21st among quarterbacks. Still a very talented player with a much better offensive environment incoming, Williams is on the rise.
Other QB Notes
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Maye made his first start in Week 6. From then on, averaged about 16 fantasy points per game. He played behind an awful offensive line and had very little help at wide receiver. An expected run-first New England offense will limit his upside, but the Patriots should also be in the market for plenty of wide receiver help this offseason.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
It was only a three-week sample size, but from Week 16 on, only Joe Burrow had more highlight throws than Penix (5). He’ll have a full offseason as the starter in Atlanta.
Running Back
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving was a full-fledged star in 2024, and not just “for a rookie.” Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were better in EPA per attempt than Irving (0.073), and his 3.5 yards after contact per attempt was the second-best mark in the league. His 56 avoided tackles ranked ninth, despite ranking 18th in the NFL in carries (207). His shiftiness and elusiveness were on full display, as Irving performed a successful juke a league-leading 5.8% of the time. Irving’s emergence led to Tampa Bay deploying a split backfield between the rookie and Rachaad White, which really took shape following the team’s Week 11 bye. From then on, White logged 48.8% of the snaps and handled 13 touches per game to Irving’s 50% snap share and 18.9 touches per game. It is also worth noting that in Weeks 17 and 18, two must-win games for the Bucs, Irving out-touched White 45-7, as the rookie handled over 67% of the team’s rush attempts during that span. White remains a very good pass-catcher but after Irving’s emergence, it appears that might be the extent of his role in this offense going forward.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
A former wide receiver, Tracy moved to running back in college in 2023, and the Giants couldn’t be happier. Though he opened the season behind Devin Singletary, that all changed in Week 5 when he started for the injured veteran, rushing for 129 yards on 18 carries. From that point on, Tracy averaged nearly 17 touches, over 80 scrimmage yards and 13.5 PPR points per game. Going into the 2025 season, the Giants have so many positions to address that I doubt they target the running back position in a weak free agency class. Tracy’s fifth-round draft capital certainly doesn’t guarantee job security, but he did nothing to prove he shouldn’t get plenty of work again entering his sophomore season.
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
We knew this rookie wideout class was loaded, but I’m not sure many thought Thomas would be the best, at least right away. Despite playing in an awful offense with multiple quarterbacks, Thomas hauled in 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, and only Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown scored more fantasy points at the position. Thomas scored the sixth-most fantasy points by a rookie wideout in NFL history, despite playing in a putrid offense and ranking outside the top 15 wide receivers in targets (133). To be as dominant as Thomas was as a rookie is an excellent sign of future production and going forward, he should be viewed as a top 15 (at worst) redraft receiver and top-10 in dynasty formats.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Nabers was very busy as a rookie, catching 109 passes for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns. His 109 receptions were the most by a player in Giants history, top three by a rookie in the history of the league. The volume was incredible, as he finished second in the NFL with 170 targets, averaging a league-leading 11.3 per game. He was responsible for about 35% of the team’s targets as a rookie … and keep in mind he did all of this while missing two games to injury. Given the state of this New York offense right now, it is very possible Nabers leads the entire league in targets over the next few seasons. And of course a quarterback upgrade is (hopefully) on the horizon. Like Thomas, Nabers is a top-eight dynasty wideout and for re-draft purposes, should be ranked as a top-10 wide receiver. He’s an elite talent with zero competition for targets.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
After having the highest ADP from a rookie wide receiver ever, Harrison finished with 62 catches for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns. MHJ ended his rookie year as the WR30 (WR42 in PPG) and while he clearly has to improve, the Cardinals also didn’t do him any favors with his utilization. One of the most nuanced wide receiver prospects in years, Harrison can do it all. But for whatever reason, Arizona asked him to run vertical routes down the sideline far too often. He had 22 targets off go routes, 19% of his total targets, and his 92.1 air yards per game were the 10th most in the league. He lined up out wide over 70% of the time and only saw one target out of pre-snap motion all year long. And because there wasn’t much creativity in his usage, Harrison posted a 46.6% tight coverage rate, fifth highest among all wideouts. He also had just 18 targets all season long with three-plus yards of separation. Brighter days (and superstardom) and ahead for Harrison, but the Cardinals have to generate some layups for him rather than relying on him to hit 30-foot threes consistently. He’ll likely come off draft boards in the WR25-28 range next season, and given how great his fellow rookie receivers were, it makes sense.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
We knew whoever landed with Justin Herbert and the Chargers this offseason would have a chance to be fantasy relevant as a rookie. It’s safe to say McConkey was more than just relevant. He caught 82 passes for over 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns, while also shining in his lone playoff game (9-197-1). It was the most receiving yards by a rookie in a postseason game in NFL history. McConkey really emerged in the second half of the year when the Chargers opened up their playbook. Through Week 5, the Chargers were one of the run-heaviest teams in football, ranking fifth in neural-script rush rate (50.9%). But then they had their bye week and changed things, ranking eighth in neutral-script pass rate from Week 6 on (58.6%). McConkey, meanwhile, averaged 81.6 yards and 16.2 PPR points per game during that stretch, ranking as the WR10 in total points and WR17 in points per game.
McConkey also crushed man coverage as a rookie, ranking fourth in EPA per target (0.699), ninth in yards per route run (2.7) and top-five in fantasy points per target against man coverage. Now the clear top target for Herbert, McConkey is a top-24 fantasy wideout in re-draft formats next season, and should be viewed as the third-best sophomore receiver, ahead of Harrison.
Other WR Notes
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy started his NFL career with two touchdowns in the season opener, but he slowed down a bit. His role was inconsistent, often resorting to go routes down the field. But the Chiefs finally carved out a role for Worthy in the second half, averaging seven total targets and two screen targets per game from Week 11 on. He also saw just one target off go routes during that stretch.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Odunze struggled to consistently carve out a role in Chicago’s offense this year. He was mainly used to stretch the field, accounting for 31% of the Bears air yards, though his 38.3% catchable air yard rate was the fourth lowest among qualified wideouts. I’m excited to see what he can do in Ben Johnson’s offense next year, especially if Keenan Allen doesn’t return.
Tight End
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
One of my biggest mistakes. Admittedly, I wanted very little to do with Bowers this offseason. I didn’t love the landing spot with Davante Adams and Michael Mayer already in Las Vegas, and the quarterback situation was less than ideal. Fast forward a few months, and Adams is traded, Mayer hardly plays and Bowers, an elite prospect, just goes on to set multiple records, including most receptions by a rookie (112) and most receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,194). He led all tight ends in fantasy points by nearly 20 points and has now emerged as the TE1 in all fantasy rankings going forward.
