Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With just a few days left from the start of Week 1 of NFL preseason games, I wanted to take the time to explore the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year market, picking out a few candidates who may have some value before seeing them on an NFL field. I’ll be using the free FTN Prop Shop tool to find the best odds, allowing me to compare lines across several different books.
In this exercise, I want to be mindful of my approach, only highlighting players who I could see rise the closer we get to the kickoff of the regular season. For example, Caleb Williams initially opened between +175 to +210 when I first wrote this article earlier this offseason. He’s now down to +135 to +150, despite not even playing in last week’s Hall of Fame Game. It’s one of the shortest odds for the award, and probably for good reason. As the No. 1 overall pick, pegged as a generational prospect, there aren’t many holes to poke in Williams’s game, and he has been a near lock to go first overall since his 2022 Heisman campaign when he ran away with the award over the likes of last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud.
My preferred way to back Williams is to take him to lead all rookies in passing yards, which I gave out last month at +125 on Caesars via the FTN Bets page. In short, Caleb threw for 4,075 yards and 42 touchdowns in his lone season playing more than 12 games, despite attempting less than 300 passes (296). He averaged 308.32 yards per game in two seasons at USC, posting a career 6.6 touchdown to interception rate, the second-best mark in FBS history over the last 25 years. He now steps in arguably the best situation ever for a first overall pick, featuring a supporting cast consisting of two Pro Bowl wide receivers in two pro bowl wide receivers in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, both of whom are coming off a career-best season, as well as the 2024 No. 9 overall pick, Rome Odunze, selected as the third receiver off the board. Williams also joins Jayden Daniels, as one of only two rookie quarterbacks currently listed as the starter on their team’s depth chart. I believe there will be a better time to buy Williams for Rookie of the Year midseason, which is why I’m shifting my focus elsewhere.
2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
(+650, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It isn’t hard to make a case for the reigning Heisman winner in Jayden Daniels for Rookie of the Year, coming off a breakout season in his fifth year as a starter. He’s in a tier of his own as the best dual-threat quarterback in the class, leading the nation in touchdown passes (40) and rushing yards at the position (1,134). With 3,812 yards through the air and 1,134 yards on the ground, Daniels joined Johnny Manziel as only the second player in SEC history to throw for 3,500-plus yards and rush for 1,000-plus yards in the same season, while averaging a ridiculous 412.2 yards of total offense. As I mentioned earlier, Daniels is one of only two rookie signal callers who is currently listed as his team’s starter on the unofficial depth chart, taking all the reps with the first team. His maturity and freakish athleticism should translate to the next level, possessing a rare skill set that rivals the elites at the position. I expect Daniels’ stock to only rise throughout the duration of preseason, putting on a highlight reel almost daily in training camp.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
(+1600, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It isn’t often we get a prospect like Malik Nabers falling outside the top three in terms of shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year, tied for second at his own position. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the runaway favorite to win the award among wide receivers, trailing only Caleb Williams in the class. However, entering the draft, there was a real debate on who would be the first receiver off the board. Nabers was the fourth LSU receiver to be selected in the first round over the last decade, joining Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Justin Jefferson (2020), and Ja’Marr Chase (2021), all of whom won Rookie of the Year. NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein was one of many scouts that had Nabers as the WR1 of the class, comparing him to his predecessors, stating “Nabers is the next big thing coming out of LSU’s receiver room with the pure explosiveness and talent to be mentioned in the same breath as former LSU stars starring in the league today.”
Through three seasons and 38 games with the Tigers Nabers, finished as the school’s all-time leader in both receptions (189) and receiving yards (3,003), joining Josh Reed (3,001) as the only other player to clear the 3,000 mark and/or log back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. His 2,586 receiving yards over the last two seasons, trailed only Rome Odunze (2,784) for the second-most in the FBS, earning the second-highest PFF grade among all receivers during that span (92.8). In 2023, Nabers led all of college football in receiving yards per game (120.7), setting career highs across the board, totaling 89 grabs for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. There wasn’t a better deep threat than Nabers last season who averaged 17.6 yards per reception, leading the FBS in plays of 20-plus (34) and 30-plus (17) yards from scrimmage. Entering the NFL, Nabers should immediately slot in as the Giants’ No. 1 option, with little to no competition for targets. Darius Slayton led the G-Men with 770 receiving yards last season, followed by Darren Waller (552) who announced his retirement earlier this offseason. The team also let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency, who played a critical role as a pass catcher, seeing a 16% target share when on the field. Volume is king, and Nabers should see a lot of it, enough to overcome the less-than-ideal play under center.
