First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
This is the time of year where we should be getting a pretty good feel for these teams. Instead, Week 14 threw things into turmoil. The Lions won, but barely. The Bills lost. The Chiefs could have, the Eagles probably should have. The Ravens didn’t lose, because having a bye is good for that.
Which brings us to the NFL power rankings for Week 15. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 14
Biggest Risers
Los Angeles Rams +4 (18 to 14)
San Franisco 49ers +4 (17 to 13)
Biggest Fallers
Arizona Cardinals -3 (14 to 17)
Cincinnati Bengals -3 (15 to 18)
Houston Texans -3 (12 to 15)
1. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 1, Average Score: 1.2)
Record: 12-1, +183 point differential
Week 14: Beat the Packers 34-31
Week 15: vs. Buffalo
The Lions held on late to beat the Packers Thursday and now get a stout Bills team offa mini-bye. This is the best test for both teams.
2. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 3, Average Score: 2.8)
Record: 10-3, +129
Week 14: Lost to the Rams 44-42
Week 15: @ Detroit
A loss that solidifies the MVP. All Josh Allen has to do down the stretch is not implode and the award is certainly his. But the Rams game did display that the Bills defense is a problem.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 2, Average Score: 3.4)
Record: 11-2, +108
Week 14: Beat the Panthers 22-16
Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh
The Eagles spent 6-8 weeks looking unbeatable before looking very much the opposite Sunday against Carolina. The passing game needs to be a bigger threat if Philadelphia wants to make the Super Bowl.
4. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 4, Average Score: 4.8)
Record: 8-5, +65
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: @ NY Giants
“Bye, and then the Giants” is the salve the Ravens need after losses in two of three and three of six. The time is now for the team to re-establish itself as a top-flight contender.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 7, Average Score: 5.2)
Record: 12-1, +56
Week 14: Beat the Chargers 19-17
Week 15: @ Cleveland
Insert “Can’t keep getting away with this” meme here.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 6, Average Score: 6.0)
Record: 10-3, +85
Week 14: Beat the Browns 27-14
Week 15: @ Philadelphia
The Steelers are 6-1 since switching to Russell Wilson at quarterback, with the only loss being Week 12’s blizzard game in Cleveland. We might have been underrating this Pittsburgh team for a while now.
7. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 5, Average Score: 6.4)
Record: 9-4, +75
Week 14: Lost to the Lions 34-31
Week 15: @ Seattle (Sunday night)
The Packers have lost four games: In Brazil when Jordan Love got hurt, vs. Minnesota in Love’s first game back, and twice to the Lions. Their losses were to three teams that are a combined 34-5. No shame there.
8. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 8, Average Score: 7.2)
Record: 11-2, +99
Week 14: Beat the Falcons 42-21
Week 15: vs. Chicago (Monday)
When the Vikings went from 5-0 to 5-2, people started to give up faith in at least Sam Darnold if not the whole team. Six straight wins later, Darnold is fantasy’s QB4 over that stretch and the questions are subsiding.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 9, Average Score: 9.2)
Record: 8-5, +70
Week 14: Lost to the Chiefs 19-17
Week 15: vs. Tampa Bay
The Chargers being competitive but getting progressively more injured? Feels familiar. Will Dissly is going to miss a bit and J.K. Dobbins is out at least two more games, but the team could get Ladd McConkey back this week.
10. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 10, Average Score: 10.2)
Record: 8-5, +71
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: vs. Indianapolis
This week’s game against Indianapolis is crucial for the Broncos. Win and they just about lock down a Wild Card berth. Lose and they might be revealed as pretenders after all.
11. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 13, Average Score: 11.6)
Record: 8-5, +19
Week 14: Beat the Cardinals 30-18
Week 15: vs. Green Bay (Sunday night)
The Seahawks are out in front in the NFC West now on the back of four straight wins, but with the Packers and Vikings the next two weeks (and a potential division-decider against the Rams in Week 18), there’s still plenty of work to be done.
12. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 11, Average Score: 13.4)
Record: 8-5, +80
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: @ New Orleans
Jayden Daniels started to look more Jayden Daniels-y before the bye. If he’s back to what he was early in the season, watch out.
13. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 17, Average Score: 13.6)
Record: 6-7, 0
Week 14: Beat the Bears 38-13
Week 15: vs. LA Rams (Thursday)
Like the Bengals, odds are the 49ers are playing for pride at this point, but a couple crucial wins the rest of the way could start to change that.
14. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 18, Average Score: 14.4)
Record: 7-6, -34
Week 14: Beat the Bills 44-42
Week 15: @ San Francisco (Thursday)
Off a win in the game of the year against the Bills, can the Rams bring it back for a Thursday showdown against San Francisco?
15. Houston Texans (Last Week: 12, Average Score: 14.6)
Record: 8-5, +20
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: vs. Miami
The Texans better hope the bye righted the ship — they’ve lost four of seven since starting 5-1 and haven’t looked good for a lot of that time.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 16, Average Score: 14.8)
Record: 7-6, +54
Week 14: Beat the Raiders 28-13
Week 15: @ LA Chargers
Even having lost both games (and therefore the tiebreaker) to the Falcons, the Buccaneers hold a lead in the NFC South and are heavy favorites to win the division.
17. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 14, Average Score: 16.2)
Record: 6-7, -5
Week 14: Lost to the Seahawks 30-18
Week 15: vs. New England
By virtue of losing both games to the Seahawks, the Cardinals have crippled their playoff hopes. The door isn’t shut, but they might have burned a golden opportunity.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 15, Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 5-8, +2
Week 14: Beat the Cowboys 27-20
Week 15: @ Tennessee
Barring a miracle, the Bengals are just playing for pride down the stretch, but Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are doing something historic out there. (Is it a little unfair that they drop three spots coming off a win? Probably, but they were supposed to beat the Cowboys and some of the lower teams had bigger wins.
19. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 20, Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 6-7, -28
Week 14: Beat the Jets 32-26
Week 15: @ Houston
If the Dolphins want to get back into contention, they need to do better than “barely squeaking by the Jets in overtime, but a win’s a win.
20. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 19, Average Score: 19.6)
Record: 6-7, -55
Week 14: Lost to the Vikings 42-21
Week 15: @ Las Vegas (Monday)
It doesn’t appear to be Michael Penix Jr. time in Atlanta quite yet, but Kirk Cousins needs to turn things around sooner rather than later if he wants to keep starting.
21. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 21, Average Score: 20.4)
Record: 6-7, -31
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: @ Denver
Can the Colts beat the Broncos this week? They have a golden schedule after that and could fight their way into a Wild Card.
22. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 23, Average Score: 23.6)
Record: 5-8, -2
Week 14: Beat the Giants 14-11
Week 15: vs. Washington
Derek Carr’s second injury is the latest in a ridiculous line of problems for the Saints. Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler will have to steer the ship now.
23. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 24, Average Score: 24.2)
Record: 3-10, -103
Week 14: Lost to the Steelers 27-14
Week 15: vs. Kansas City
Jerry Jeudy’s best fantasy day before the Browns’ Week 10 bye: 14.3 PPR points. His worst since the bye? 14.5. He went from 9.2 points per game to 24.7.
24. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 22, Average Score: 24.8)
Record: 4-9, -24
Week 14: Lost to the 49ers 38-31
Week 15: @ Minnesota (Monday)
The Bears got to 4-2 with a win over Jacksonville in Week 6. That also might end up being their last win, with games against the Vikings, Lions, Seahawks and Packers the rest of the way that is a huge gauntlet.
25. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 27, Average Score: 25.2)
Record: 3-10, -155
Week 14: Lost to the Eagles 22-16
Week 15: vs. Dallas
The Panthers’ point differential in their last five games: +1, +3, -3, -3, -6. There’s a path to 5-0 in there or 0-5. But “competitive” is a fair piece better than they were doing early in the year.
26. New York Jets (Last Week: 26, Average Score: 25.2)
Record: 3-10, -49
Week 14: Lost to the Dolphins 32-26
Week 15: @ Jacksonville
Sunday was Aaron Rodgers’ first 300-yard passing day since Week 14. Of 2021.
27. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 25, Average Score: 25.8)
Record: 5-8, -98
Week 14: Lost to the Bengals 27-20
Week 15: @ Carolina
Ezekiel Elliott has 55 scrimmage yards. Since the start of November.
28. New England Patriots (Last Week: 30, Average Score: 28.6)
Record: 3-10, -86
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: @ Arizona
The rest of 2024 is going to be about building up Drake Maye and deciding if Jerod Mayo is the coach in New England long-term.
29. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 28, Average Score: 28.8)
Record: 3-10, -115
Week 14: Lost to the Jaguars 10-6
Week 15: vs. Cincinnati
The Titans and Browns are the only teams that haven’t won two out of three at any point this season.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 31, Average Score: 29.2)
Record: 3-10, -107
Week 14: Beat the Titans 10-6
Week 15: vs. NY Jets
Sure, the Jaguars won 10-6 Sunday, but exactly no one was inspired by that victory. On the flip side, with games against the Jets, Raiders and Titans coming up, they could end the season on the upswing.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 29, Average Score: 29.8)
Record: 2-11, -125
Week 14: Lost to the Buccaneers 28-13
Week 15: vs. Atlanta (Monday)
The Raiders will be starting either Desmond Ridder or a hobbled Aidan O’Connell this week. There’s a reason they’re down near the bottom of this list.
32. New York Giants (Last Week: 32, Average Score: 30.6)
Record: 2-11, -99
Week 14: Lost to the Saints 14-11
Week 15: vs. Baltimore
The Giants are bad, but their 2024 draft class appears to be stout. No bad picks in there. That could help jump-start a rebuild if the team finds a quarterback.
Check out the full voting below.
