Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It was a fairly wild Week 12 of games around the NFL, but in the end, the power rankings didn’t actually move that much. In some cases, it was because the excitement didn’t swing the results that much (like the Bears and Panthers tying their games late only to lose anyway). In others — like Dallas beating Washington or Tennessee beating Houston — it left our rankers wanting to see more before letting the results really shift the rankings.
Which brings us to the NFL power rankings for Week 13. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 12
Biggest Risers
Cincinnati Bengals +4 (17 to 13)
Green Bay Packers +3 (9 to 6)
Biggest Fallers
New England Patriots -4 (25 to 29)
Los Angeles Rams -4 (16 to 20)
1. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 1; Average Score: 1.0)
Record: 10-1, +177 point differential
Week 12: Beat the Colts 24-6
Week 13: vs. Chicago (Thursday)
The Lions weren’t quite as dominant Sunday as the 24-6 result might indicate, but still, this is the clear best team.
2. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 2; Average Score: 2.8)
Record: 9-2, +106
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. San Francisco (Sunday night)
A spotlight matchup with the 49ers might not be as flashy as it looked like a few months ago, but this is still a good week for Buffalo to make a statement.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 4; Average Score: 3.4)
Record: 9-2, +97
Week 12: Beat the Rams 37-20
Week 13: @ Baltimore
An Eagles-Ravens matchup might be just the setup for Philadelphia to climb to No. 2 (or No. 1 if Detroit falters on Thanksgiving).
4. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 5; Average Score: 3.6)
Record: 8-4, +70
Week 12: Beat the Chargers 30-23
Week 13: vs. Philadelphia
Similarly, the Ravens made a statement Monday night, and making it two consecutive would re-establish them as one of the top Super Bowl contenders.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 3; Average Score: 4.8)
Record: 10-1, +52
Week 12: Beat the Panthers 30-27
Week 13: vs. Las Vegas (Friday)
A win is a win, so you don’t want to ding the Chiefs too much for just eking one out over the Panthers … but you’d really like to see the Chiefs have some dominant performances at some point.
6. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 9; Average Score: 6.4)
Record: 8-3, +65
Week 12: Beat the 49ers 38-10
Week 13: vs. Miami (Thursday)
It was a depleted 49ers team, but that was still a very impressive win by the Packers Sunday.
7. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 8; Average Score: 7.0)
Record: 9-2, +77
Week 12: Beat the Bears 30-27
Week 13: vs. Arizona
The Vikings have all the makings of a team capable of a deep playoff run and could even battle Detroit for the division crown in Week 18, but nobody is buying all the way in on Sam Darnold.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 7; Average Score: 8.4)
Record: 7-4, +68
Week 12: Lost to the Ravens 30-23
Week 13: @ Atlanta
There’s no shame in losing to the Ravens, but a win certainly would have been a statement for the Chargers to set themselves up as true contenders.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 6; Average Score: 9.0)
Record: 8-3, +66
Week 12: Lost to the Browns 24-19
Week 13: @ Cincinnati
One game is just one game, but the Steelers had to be really deflated losing to that Browns team. Maybe it was the snow. We’ll see this week.
10. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 10; Average Score: 10.0)
Record: 7-5, +62
Week 12: Beat the Raiders 29-19
Week 13: vs. Cleveland (Monday)
It’s high time to at least discuss Bo Nix over Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
11. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 13; Average Score: 12.4)
Record: 6-5, +2
Week 12: Beat the Cardinals 16-6
Week 13: @ NY Jets
The Seahawks went 3-0, then 1-5, then 2-0. They’re in first place in the NFC West, but who knows if another bad run is around the corner.
12. Houston Texans (Last Week: 12; Average Score: 12.8)
Record: 7-5, +17
Week 12: Lost to the Titans 32-27
Week 13: @ Jacksonville
Since starting 5-1, the Texans are 2-4, including losses to the Jets and Titans. Certainly not what they had in mind entering the season.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 13; Average Score: 14.2)
Record: 4-7, +1
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. Pittsburgh
This week is more or less the Bengals’ last chance to turn things around.
14. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 11; Average Score: 14.6)
Record: 6-5, +8
Week 12: Lost to the Seahawks 16-6
Week 13: @ Minnesota
Coming out of four straight wins and a bye to a 16-6 loss to the Seahawks to fall out of first place in the division certainly wasn’t Arizona’s game plan.
15. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 14; Average Score: 15.4)
Record: 7-5, +57
Week 12: Lost to the Cowboys 34-26
Week 13: vs. Tennessee
Three straight losses, bad. But those losses were by a total of 17 points, and it was actually closer than that considering Washington could easily have sent Sunday’s to overtime. Free fall or bad luck?
16. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 15; Average Score: 15.6)
Record: 5-6, Even
Week 12: Lost to the Packers 38-10
Week 13: @ Buffalo (Sunday night)
The 49ers are only one game back in the division, so Sunday isn’t a must-win necessarily, but if they want to be seen as relevant again, it kind of is.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 18; Average Score: 15.6)
Record: 5-6, +36
Week 12: Beat the Giants 30-7
Week 13: @ Carolina
The Buccaneers are still behind the Falcons in the NFC South and lose the tiebreaker, but there’s only one of those teams that has excited anyone lately.
18. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 19; Average Score: 17.2)
Record: 6-5, -30
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. LA Chargers
Taking a week to be off the radar might actually have been good news for the Falcons.
19. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 20; Average Score: 17.8)
Record: 5-6, -21
Week 12: Beat the Patriots 34-15
Week 13: @ Green Bay (Thursday)
The Dolphins have played themselves back into the conversation. A win over the Packers would make them real factors.
20. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 16; Average Score: 18.8)
Record: 5-6, -43
Week 12: Lost to the Eagles 37-20
Week 13: @ New Orleans
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are as good as it gets. But the Rams’ defense isn’t living up to that promise.
21. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 21; Average Score: 22.0)
Record: 4-7, +2
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. LA Rams
Can the Saints keep it rolling coming out of the bye? In the NFC South, it’s never too late.
22. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 23; Average Score: 22.2)
Record: 4-7, +4
Week 12: Lost to the Vikings 30-27
Week 13: @ Detroit (Thursday)
Five of the Bears’ seven losses (including each of the last two weeks) have been by six points or fewer. Take out the 29-9 loss to the Cardinals and 19-3 to the Patriots in Weeks 9 and 10 and they have been thisclose.
23. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 22; Average Score: 22.8)
Record: 5-7, -32
Week 12: Lost to the Lions 24-6
Week 13: @ New England
The Colts are only two games back in the AFC South, but no one really thinks they have a shot (especially not holding the tiebreaker). The rest of this year needs to be about figuring out if Anthony Richardson can deliver on his promise.
24. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 26; Average Score: 24.6)
Record: 3-8, -81
Week 12: Beat the Steelers 24-19
Week 13: @ Denver (Monday)
The Browns badly needed that win in Week 12. Now, was it a sign of a turnaround under Jameis Winston or a snow-fueled blip?
25. New York Jets (Last Week: 24; Average Score: 25.8)
Record: 3-8, -38
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. Seattle
The Jets didn’t get better over the bye, but at least they (maybe?) slipped behind the Giants in craziness.
26. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 27; Average Score: 26.0)
Record: 3-8, -88
Week 12: Beat the Texans 32-27
Week 13: @ Washington
Will Levis has looked much better since returning from injury. There are still plenty of issues to be ironed out, but that’s what playing out the string is for.
27. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 29; Average Score: 26.4)
Record: 4-7, -98
Week 12: Beat the Commanders 34-26
Week 13: vs. NY Giants (Thursday)
By all rights, the Cowboys should beat the Giants on Thanksgiving and the Panthers in Week 15. A win over the Bengals in between that could make things interesting.
28. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 28; Average Score: 27.8)
Record: 3-8, -146
Week 12: Lost to the Chiefs 30-27
Week 13: vs. Tampa Bay
The Panthers came very close Sunday. That’s reassuring for a team that looked lost a few weeks back.
29. New England Patriots (Last Week: 25; Average Score: 29.0)
Record: 3-9, -85
Week 12: Lost to the Dolphins 34-15
Week 13: vs. Indianapolis
You know that meme with the super expensive car outside the mobile home? That’s Drake Maye right now.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 32; Average Score: 29.6)
Record: 2-9, -108
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs. Houston
It looks like there’s a chance Trevor Lawrence returns for Week 13, which would be huge for the Jaguars’ chances of climbing. But it’s not like Lawrence was lighting the world on fire before injury.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 31; Average Score: 30.2)
Record: 2-9, -108
Week 12: Lost to the Broncos 29-19
Week 13: @ Kansas City (Friday)
Gardner Minshew II being out for the year means it’s Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Connell time in Las Vegas. That … might not actually matter that much.
32. New York Giants (Last Week: 30; Average Score: 30.8)
Record: 2-9, -89
Week 12: Lost to the Buccaneers 30-7
Week 13: @ Dallas (Thursday)
Tommy DeVito certainly didn’t look ready for the big time Sunday. Maybe some more game experience this season helps, but it’s a mess in New York right now.
Check out the full voting below.
