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Mike Randle
The final week of the NFL regular season is always funny. You have almost all of the games on a single day, with some (Vikings-Lions Sunday night, for example) having the highest stakes possible alongside others (Patriots-Bills?) where neither team wants to win and even has incentive to lose.
The upshot of that is there are some games where we can take away some real lessons and some where we learn nothing. Nobody is drawing any conclusions about the Chiefs’ 38-0 loss. But the Steelers going down 19-17? That might mean something.
Which brings us to the NFL power rankings for the end of the regular season, our final of the year. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through the Regular Season
Biggest Risers
Arizona Cardinals +3 (20 to 17)
Los Angeles Chargers +2 (9 to 7)
Cincinnati Bengals +2 (14 to 12)
Biggest Fallers
San Francisco 49ers -3 (16 to 19)
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (12 to 14)
Miami Dolphins -2 (18 to 20)
Chicago Bears -2 (23 to 25)
New York Giants -2 (29 to 31)
1. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 1, Average Score: 1.2)
Record: 12-5, +157 point differential
Week 18: Beat the Browns 35-10
Wild Card Round: vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday night)
The Ravens never really seemed to put their foot on the gas Saturday, and they still rolled the Browns by 25. That probably says more about Cleveland than Baltimore, though.
2. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 3, Average Score: 2.0)
Record: 15-2, +222
Week 18: Beat the Vikings 31-9
Wild Card Round: Bye
The Lions keep dropping like flies and couldn’t get much going through the air Sunday night … and still beat a 14-2 team 31-9. There’s real “destiny” vibes around this team if it can stay healthy enough.
3. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 2, Average Score: 3.8)
Record: 13-4, +157
Week 18: Lost to the Patriots 23-16
Wild Card Round: vs. Denver (Sunday early afternoon)
The Bills ending the year with the exact same point differential as the Ravens is funny, at least from a “conversation about the MVP” perspective.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 4, Average Score: 3.8)
Record: 14-3, +160
Week 18: Beat the Giants 20-13
Wild Card Round: vs. Green Bay (Sunday later afternoon)
The Eagles’ B team beat the Giants Sunday, and handily. With Dallas Goedert, the A team rolls into the playoffs now.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 5, Average Score: 5.2)
Record: 15-2, +5
Week 18: Lost to the Broncos 38-0
Wild Card Round: Bye
No one needed the Chiefs to go all out in a meaningless-for-them game in Week 18, but we all thought the reserves would at least be competitive. Instead, it was maybe the worst game of the season.
6. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 6, Average Score: 6.2)
Record: 14-3, +100
Week 18: Lost DET 31-9
Wild Card Round: @ LA Rams (Sunday night)
The Vikings had better hope that was just a blip from Sam Darnold Sunday night and not an indication of pressure, injury or just fatigue, because that game was very bad.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 9, Average Score: 7.6)
Record: 11-6, +9
Week 18: Beat the Raiders 34-20
Wild Card Round: @ Houston (Saturday afternoon)
It’s hard not to feel good for Quentin Johnston’s explosive game Sunday after all he went through as a rookie.
8. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 7, Average Score: 7.8)
Record: 11-6, +122
Week 18: Lost to the Bears 24-22
Wild Card Round: @ Philadelphia (Sunday late afternoon)
The Packers didn’t have that much motivation Sunday (a win would have helped their seeding a little, but it wasn’t make-or-break or anything), but you’d imagine they wanted to beat their rival anyway.
9. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 8, Average Score: 8.6)
Record: 12-5, +94
Week 18: Beat the Cowboys 23-19
Wild Card Round: @ Tampa Bay (Sunday night)
Marcus Mariota has seen extended time in two games this season. One was a blowout over Carolina, and then Sunday he produced two fourth-quarter touchdowns (including one with 3 seconds left) to get a second win. No, the Commanders aren’t going to have a QB controversy, but having a backup that doesn’t feel like a potential disaster is a nice little perk.
10. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 11, Average Score: 9.6)
Record: 10-7, +114
Week 18: Beat the Chiefs 38-0
Wild Card Round: @ Buffalo (Sunday early afternoon)
Since their Week 14 bye, the Broncos have gone 2-2, with a win over a Colts team that just about handed them the game and a Chiefs team that didn’t even bother trying. Hey, they’re in the playoffs, but they certainly aren’t wowing anyone on their way.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 10, Average Score: 10.8)
Record: 10-7, +117
Week 18: Beat the Saints 27-19
Wild Card Round: vs. Washington (Sunday night)
Passing it when you could kneel the ball to win the game with a one-possession lead might not have been the best strategic idea, but it’s hard to criticize the Buccaneers after seeing how Mike Evans, the team and the fans responded to him getting 1,000 yards. One of the images of the season.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 14, Average Score: 12.4)
Record: 9-8, +38
Week 18: Beat the Steelers 19-17
The Bengals did all they could to make the playoffs down the stretch. Of course, the only reason they were so far behind the 8-ball to begin with is their borderline pitiful performance early in the season.
13. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 13, Average Score: 13.6)
Record: 10-7, -19
Week 18: Lost to the Seahawks 30-25
Wild Card Round: vs. Minnesota (Monday night)
The only thing that mattered for the Rams Sunday was that backup running back Blake Corum broke his forearm and is done for the year. Kyren Williams staying healthy just became that much more important.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 12, Average Score: 14.4)
Record: 10-7, +33
Week 18: Lost to the Bengals 19-17
Wild Card Round: @ Baltimore (Saturday night)
It’s not just that the Steelers went 0-4 down the stretch to fall from 10-3 to 10-7. It’s that they didn’t hold a single lead in that four-game stretch.
15. Houston Texans (Last Week: 15, Average Score: 14.8)
Record: 10-7, 0
Week 18: Beat the Titans 23-14
Wild Card Round: vs. LA Chargers (Saturday afternoon)
The Texans beat the Bills 23-20 in Week 5. That’s basically the only win all season that would give you much excitement for their playoff aspirations.
16. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 17, Average Score: 16.0)
Record: 10-7, +7
Week 18: Beat the Rams 30-25
The Seahawks become only the second team under the current playoff structure to miss the playoffs as a 10-win team, and they did it only on the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. Pretty brutal.
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17. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 20, Average Score: 18.0)
Record: 8-9, +21
Week 18: Beat the 49ers 47-24
The Cardinals could have packed it in after losing five of six coming out of their Week 11 bye to fade from the playoff race, so it was nice to see them (and their starters) put up 47 points and beat up on the 49ers Sunday.
18. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 19, Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 8-9, -34
Week 18: Lost to the Panthers 44-38
Would the Falcons have worked harder at beating the Panthers in overtime Sunday if the Buccaneers hadn’t just won and finished off the NFC South? Maybe. But that doesn’t explain why they couldn’t put Carolina away earlier than that.
19. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 16, Average Score: 18.6)
Record: 6-11, -47
Week 18: Lost to the Cardinals 47-24
The 49ers maintained a relatively high ranking here based in part on reputation, but judging just on-field performance, it’s hard to take many positives away from 2024.
20. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 18, Average Score: 19.2)
Record: 8-9, -19
Week 18: Lost to the Jets 32-20
Injuries to Tua Tagovailoa made the Dolphins’ situation just about untenable, but it’s also their fault for having an oft-injured QB with no viable backup.
21. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 22, Average Score: 20.6)
Record: 8-9, -50
Week 18: Beat the Jaguars 26-23
The Colts have been either 9-8 or 8-9 in three of the last four years. This is a team that either needs to take a step forward or arguably a step back to start over.
22. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 21, Average Score: 23.0)
Record: 7-10, -118
Week 18: Lost to the Commanders 23-19
Did Trey Lance show enough Sunday to earn himself a backup gig somewhere next year?
23. New York Jets (Last Week: 24, Average Score: 23.4)
Record: 5-12, -66
Week 18: Beat the Dolphins 32-20
Leave it to the Jets to have their best offensive performance of the season in an utterly meaningless Week 18 game.
24. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 25, Average Score: 23.8)
Record: 5-12, -193
Week 18: Beat the Falcons 44-38
In Bryce Young’s last 10 games, he averaged 210.4 passing yards and had 15 TDs against 6 INTs. That’ll play.
Aaron Schatz’s DVOA + Advanced Data (10% off)
25. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 23, Average Score: 24.2)
Record: 5-12, -60
Week 18: Beat the Packers 24-22
The Bears ended their long losing streak to the Packers Sunday, but it’s hollow comfort after a disaster season. The new coaching staff needs to build up the offensive line this offseason.
26. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 27, Average Score: 26.0)
Record: 5-12, -60
Week 18: Lost to the Buccaneers 27-19
The Saints by the end of the year were basically using no skill players (other than Juwan Johnson) who they actually expected to use this season. All their key names were gone. That doesn’t mean they’ll be good in 2025, but their end-of-2024 performance can just about be tossed out.
27. New England Patriots (Last Week: 26, Average Score: 27.0)
Record: 4-13, -128
Week 18: Beat the Bills 23-16
Some team will call the Patriots about Joe Milton III after Sunday’s game. Not as a starter, but as a “You already have Drake Maye, let us try to develop Milton” project.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 28, Average Score: 28.4)
Record: 4-13, -115
Week 18: Lost to the Chargers 34-20
The Raiders are in QB purgatory again, picking too late to realistically take a top-flight quarterback without a trade-up. Have they already called the Titans?
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 30, Average Score: 28.8)
Record: 4-13, -115
Week 18: Lost to the Colts 26-23
The Jags have moved on from head coach Doug Pederson but retained Trent Baalke as GM. He’s got to be on his last chance by now.
30. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 31, Average Score: 30.0)
Record: 3-14, -177
Week 18: Lost to the Ravens 35-10
The Titans have the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but considering the Cleveland quarterback situation, if they were to play for it right now, wouldn’t you have to pick Tennessee to win?
31. New York Giants (Last Week: 29, Average Score: 30.4)
Record: 3-14, -142
Week 18: Lost to the Eagles 20-13
The Giants are terrible, but they have pieces. Malik Nabers is a star. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is more than competent. If they can figure out quarterback, there’s room for a lot of improvement quickly.
32. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 32, Average Score: 30.4)
Record: 3-14, -149
Week 18: Lost to the Texans 23-14
Do the Titans move on from Will Levis and use the first overall pick on a QB? Keep Levis and support him with Travis Hunter? Or trade down for a (theoretical) haul?
Check out the full voting below.
