Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the New York Jets.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: New York Jets
2022 Results
Record: 7-10; 4th in the AFC East
Season End: Missed the playoffs
New York Jets Offseason Summary
Draft
1.15: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
2.43: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
4.112: Carter Warren, OT, Pitt
5.143: Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
6.184: Zaire Barnes, LB, Western Michigan
6.204: Jarrick Bernard-Converse, DB, LSU
7.220: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion
Joe Tippmann, C (2.43)
The Jets re-signed their Connor McGovern — not to be confused with the Bills version. But the veteran’s $1.9 million salary suggests a backup role. Aaron Rodgers earned his 2021 MVP with some rookie Josh Myers starts at center. But he had previously enjoyed seven years of continuity with Corey Linsley. Rodgers and the Jets are really hoping Joe Tippmann can be a capable starter from Day 1.
Israel Abanikanda, RB (5.143)
Israel Abanikanda was a luxury pick for a running back room with Breece Hall, Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight. But the Pitt product also excelled at his Pro Day and might have been a Day 2 draft pick if a hamstring injury hadn’t sidelined him for the combine. He might not play much as a rookie, but Abanikanda will likely spur a surprising 53-man roster cut.
Zack Kuntz, TE (7.220)
Zack Kuntz is something of an afterthought as a seventh-round draft pick. But the Jets are unusually loaded with veteran starters after the Aaron Rodgers trade. And Kuntz has at least a small chance of helping the team’s relatively weak tight end position. He certainly has the athleticism to do so — he demonstrated that with standout 4.55-second 40 and 4.12-second short shuttle times and with 40-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jumps at the combine. And Kuntz had a prolific 73-catch, 692-yard junior Old Dominion season before an undisclosed injury ended his senior season in early October and knocked him down draft boards.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Allen Lazard, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Quinton Jefferson, WR Randall Cobb, DT Al Woods, C Trystan Colon-Castillo, T Billy Turner, P Thomas Morstead
Trade additions: QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has been non-stop drama the last several seasons in Green Bay, and it’s difficult to see that subsiding with the heightened media attention in New York. That said, Zach Wilson lapped the field of regular quarterbacks with an 18.6% inaccurate pass percentage in 2022. He wasn’t a worthy starter, and Rodgers will not need to recapture his 2020-21 MVP form to represent a massive upgrade for the team and maybe save head coach Robert Saleh’s job.
Allen Lazard, WR
Rodgers brought a pair of binkies in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him from Green Bay. Lazard matters more now that Cobb is 32 years old and playing less than 50% of snaps. But Lazard still seems likely to fade from his career highs of 100 targets and 60 catches from 2022 now paired with a true No. 1 receiver in Garrett Wilson. Lazard may make his biggest fantasy impact as a run-blocker for Breece Hall.
Nathaniel Hackett, OC
Hackett could not survive his first season as the Broncos head coach in which he led $245 million new quarterback Russell Wilson to a bottom-six season in EPA per dropback. But while a transition from a LaFleur to Hackett might distress fans, I’m skeptical it will move the team’s offensive needle in either direction. Hackett coordinated the Packers offense in Rodgers’ 2020 and 2021 MVP seasons.
Departures
EDGE Nathan Shepherd, DT Sheldon Rankins, G Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Feeney, T Cedric Ogbuehi, WR Jeff Smith, T George Fant, QB Joe Flacco, S Lamarcus Joyner, LB Kwon Alexander, EDGE Vinny Curry, T Mike Remmers, G Dru Samia, WR Rodney Adams, LB Marcell Harris
Elijah Moore, WR
Elijah Moore fell dramatically short of his early-second-round draft expectations — maybe more for off-field than on-field reasons. But while his departure vacates a modest 65 targets from 2022, it does open a starting slot role that could become much more relevant for fantasy now that Aaron Rodgers is the team’s quarterback.
George Fant, T
The Jets have the outside talent in Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown and Billy Turner to survive George Fant’s departure. But Fant led the team’s tackles with a 2.5% blown block rate in 2021 before a knee injury delayed and disrupted his 2022 season. The Jets need to improve on their bottom-third 57% pass block win rate from last season or risk sabotaging their splashy Aaron Rodgers trade, and offensive tackle is their most likely weak link.
James Robinson, RB
James Robinson’s unexpected 1,000-yard undrafted rookie season is a distant memory after he broke just 13.6% of his potential tackles in 2022, a bottom-10 rate split between a pair of different teams. But Robinson’s departure sets a clear competition for the team’s No. 2 running back role behind Breece Hall. And Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight and rookie Israel Abanikanda all make compelling claims to deserve the job.
New York Jets Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Jets fantasy options:
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall is a risky fantasy bet returning from an ACL tear last October. But he teased No. 1 fantasy back potential with a 10.0% explosive run rate that was second best among backs with 75 or more carries and with 1.0 attempts inside the 5-yard line per start even with Zach Wilson as his quarterback.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Garrett Wilson hardly disappointed with 83 catches, 1,103 yards and Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2022. But his debut season could have been much better with competent quarterback play. Wilson’s 57.8% catchable target rate was bottom five among receivers with 100 or more targets. He could approach vintage Davante Adams numbers if Aaron Rodgers returns to his 2020-21 standard of play.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
The preseason fantasy attention may be on what Aaron Rodgers can do for his top skill players Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. But don’t sleep on the veteran quarterback’s own fantasy potential. Rodgers faded from 7.6 and 4.4 net stolen touchdowns in his MVP 2020 and 2021 seasons to just 1.1 net stolen touchdowns in 2022. Call it regression, motivation, or whatever you like. But if he asserts himself more in the red zone, Rodgers can rebound in fantasy even if he plays with the same efficiency as he did in his final Packers season.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-130)
The Jets’ two-year pivot from a top two draft pick in Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers may read a little desperate. But the transition has many of the hallmarks of Tom Brady’s jump to Tampa Bay that culminated in a Super Bowl win. Rodgers declined statistically in his final Packers season but had less experienced receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The Jets had a top five defense by DVOA but squandered it with a bottom seven offense and a minus-7 turnover differential. And while Rodgers did not pick as wide open a division as the 2020 NFC South in a modern AFC East with Josh Allen, Mike McDaniel and Bill Belichick, the Jets played the most difficult schedule in 2022 and should have an easier path in 2023 even with the fifth-hardest projected schedule. The vig shows that I’m not alone. But I like the Jets over 9.5 wins this season.
