NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Houston Texans.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Houston Texans
2022 Results
Record: 3-13-1, 4th in the AFC South
Season End: Missed the playoffs
Houston Texans Offseason Summary
Draft
1.2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio St.
1.3: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
2.62: Juice Scruggs, C, Penn St.
3.69: Tank Dell, WR, Houston
4.109: Dylan Horton, EDGE, TCU
5.167: Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Alabama
6.201: Jarrett Patterson, C/G, Notre Dame
6.205: Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa St.
7.248: Brandon Hill, S, Pittsburgh
C.J. Stroud, QB (1.2)
Stroud was the public favorite to be the No. 1 draft pick for the bulk of winter and spring before some week-of rumors suggested that teams preferred Will Levis. There has been a lot of talk around Stroud, often centered on the history of Ohio State quarterback prospects in the NFL. But little of it has considered Stroud, specifically. He was a tremendously successful college player who likely played his best game and teased an untapped athletic potential against his best competition in a 42-41 loss to Georgia in last season’s college football playoffs. Stroud has strong a chance as any quarterback in the class to make it as a professional.
Will Anderson, EDGE (1.3)
I personally hated the Texans’ trade-up and Will Anderson selection. It reeked of a divided front office and dismissed the analytical wisdom that teams tend to be too confident in their player evaluations and should favor multiple later picks over fewer high picks. But it’s impossible to hate Anderson, the player. He was incredibly productive with 27.5 sacks in 28 Alabama starts the last two seasons. And he should instantly be the best defensive talent on the Texans roster.
Tank Dell, WR (3.69)
Teams have leaned on college chemistry with their quarterback and wide receiver selections in recent seasons, most notably with former LSU Tigers Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama Crimson Tide Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle. But the Texans apparently listened to No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud when he asked them to take Houston receiver Tank Dell after the two threw together at the combine. And while that seems like an unscientific way to spend a valuable Day 2 pick, Dell may have lasted longer than he should in the draft with his 4.49-second speed and standout 14.0% college touchdown rate.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Robert Woods, S Jimmie Ward, DT Sheldon Rankins, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Case Keenum, TE Andrew Beck, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, WR Noah Brown, EDGE Chase Winovich, EDGE Jacob Martin, LB Cory Littleton, LB Denzel Perryman, WR Steven Sims, RB Mike Boone, C Michael Deiter, T Greg Little, CB Darius Phillips, DT Byron Cowart, DT
Trade additions: G Shaq Mason
Shaq Mason, G
Bill Belichick earned his reputation as a trader or releaser of accomplished veterans a year early rather than a year late with some savvy moves off stars from Deion Branch to Jamie Collins. But his surprise trade of the seven-year Patriots guard Mason has yet to look brilliant. The veteran blew just 2.3% of his blocks in 2022, a similar rate as in his successful 2019 and 2022 seasons. And now Mason joins star left tackle Laremy Tunsil and second-round center Juice Scruggs to anchor what looks like a dramatically better blocking unit than a typical top-two quarterback pick has in front of him.
Dalton Schultz, TE
The Cowboys passed on a relatively inexpensive $11.3 million franchise tag offer, and the Texans landed Schultz for a meager $6.3 million deal. Those numbers suggest Schultz owes the lion’s share of his prolific 198 catches, 2,000 yards, and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons to Dak Prescott and an explosive Dallas passing game. But the veteran also ranked top 10 among regular tight ends with 1.55 yards per route run. Schultz should be a friendly short-yardage target for the rookie Stroud, but he also has a chance to mesh with the Texans offense and contribute into their hopeful competitive window.
Devin Singletary, RB
Bills fans have been quick to blame their former third-round running back for their traditional rushing inefficiency in recent season. But the Bills play a spread offense that makes double-teams difficult to scheme. And Singletary broke 20.0% or more of his tackles in three of his four seasons with his former team. He may be a bit undersized, but Singletary should complement incumbent Texans back Dameon Pierce perfectly. And the Texans added the useful veteran for a modest $2.5 guaranteed million contract.
Departures
WR Brandin Cooks, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, EDGE Mario Addison, G A.J. Cann, C Justin Britt, CB Tremon Smith, RB Rex Burkhead, TE Jordan Akins, WR Chris Moore, EDGE Rasheem Green, G Justin McCray, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, TE O.J. Howard, QB Kyle Allen, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, WR Phillip Dorsett, DT Taylor Stallworth, QB Jeff Driskel, RB Royce Freeman, S Jonathan Owens, R Darius Anderson, WR Drew Estrada
Brandin Cooks, WR
Cooks may have spurred some concerns of a potential decline in his age-29 season when he failed to record 1,000 receiving yards for just the second time in eight seasons. But Cooks can blame his circumstances as much as his own calf injury. The veteran suffered a more than 10% decline from a 75.9% catchable target rate in 2021 to a 65.6% rate in 2022. He could have rebounded from that with improved Texans quarterback play from rookie C.J. Stroud. But he makes more sense on a Cowboys team that is ready to win now while the Texans rebuild their receiver room with younger players like John Metchie and Tank Dell that better match Stroud’s timeline.
Okoronkwo broke out in his fourth professional season with 20 pass pressures, more than double his previous career high. Few people noticed since Okoronokwo translated that moderate pressure rate into a more modest 5.0 sacks and since he played for a three-win Texans team. But the Browns noticed and more than quintupled his previous deal with a $19 million contract. The Texans will miss Okoronokwo in the short term. But he was an older rookie at 24 years old in 2019, and so a transition from him to the much more talented rookie Will Anderson makes sense for their rebuild.
Justin Britt, C
The former second-round center Britt has some banner seasons with the Seahawks and even blew less than 1.0% of his pass blocks in 2016 and 2018. But Britt saw his tenure in Seattle end after a serious knee injury in 2019. And he managed just 12 starts in two seasons with the Texans between nagging injuries and personal reasons. The Texans released Britt his offseason, and he seems set to retire. The team will presumably start second-rounder Juice Scruggs in Week 1 of his rookie season.
Houston Texans Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Texans fantasy options:
C.J. Stroud, QB
C.J. Stroud ran on just 8.8% of his non-sack college dropbacks, a lower rate than the other first- and second-round quarterback prospects Bryce Young (12.8%), Anthony Richardson (29.1%) and Will Levis (22.0%). But Stroud teased a better professional rushing potential when he doubled his previous career high with 12 carries in last January’s Georgia game. If he continues to scramble at that greater clip, then he could enjoy the short-term fantasy success that some recent rookies like Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray have had. And unlike maybe Richardson and Levis, Stroud seems poised to start from Week 1 of his rookie season.
Dameon Pierce, RB
Between Devin Singletary’s modest free agent contract cost and the fourth-rounder Dameon Pierce’s modest draft cost, the Texans appear either to have embraced the analytical wisdom that running backs are less important than other positions or to want to save some money at the position when the team is likely a year or two away from serious contention. But I’m more optimistic. As mentioned, Singletary was a standout tackle-breaker in his time with the Bills. And Pierce ranked 16th among backs with 100 or more carries with a 17.7% rookie broken tackle rate. The Texans should have an inexpensive, elusive backfield in 2023. And Pierce could threaten RB2 value assuming he sees the bulk of the red zone touches with his bigger frame.
John Metchie, WR
John Metchie tore his ACL in December of his final season at Alabama and suffered a leukemia diagnosis as he rehabbed from the former injury in his rookie season. Given the circumstances, Metchie would accomplish a lot to simply return to the field this September. But hamstring injury aside, he appears poised to participate in OTAs this offseason. And if he hadn’t injured his knee, Metchie might have been a first-round draft selection. The is a world where he leads the 2023 Texans receivers in catches playing out of the slot and is a massive fantasy value at his late average draft position.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 6.5 (+110)
The Texans have fallen short of their over/under of 6.5 wins in each of the last three seasons, never mind in just 2022. And while new head coach DeMeco Ryans and new quarterback C.J. Stroud may finally have them on a path toward success, the former is the team’s fifth head coach in the last four years. And the front office’s decision to trade up to draft a second consecutive top three pick strikes me as a sign that the team may still lack the proper vision and patience to build a contender. If Stroud is Joe Burrow, then those leadership concerns may not matter. But true franchise quarterbacks are few and far between, and the Texans still feel miles away from competing for a divisional title in even their consistently uninspiring AFC South.
