Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year.I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker.You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Results
Record: 9-8, 3rd in the AFC North
Season Ending: Beat Cleveland 28-14 but missed the playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Summary
Draft
1.14: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
2.32: Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
2.49: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
3.93: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
4.132: Nick Herbig, EDGE, Wisconsin
7.241: Cory Trice, CB, Purdue
7.251: Spencer Anderson, OT, Maryland
Broderick Jones, OT (1.14)
The Steelers made a rare move by trading up on draft day to select the 6-foot-4, 310-pound Broderick Jones. The Georgia product can start at either tackle position for an offensive line that improved throughout the season.
Joey Porter, CB (2.32)
Porter was consistently mocked to Pittsburgh due to his lineage, but surprisingly slipped to the second round. A great selection with the pick acquired from Chicago in last season’s Chase Claypool trade.
Keeanu Benton, DT, (2.49)
The Steelers hope Benton can anchor their defensive line for the foreseeable future. At 6-foot-3 and 309 pounds, he brings perfect size as the projected starting nose tackle.
Darnell Washington, TE (3.93)
A 6-foot-7, 264-pound tight end that runs a 4.64 40-Yard Dash is a fantastic third-round pick in any draft. Washington’s draft stock slid based on medical concerns, but his upside is massive.
Additions
Free agent signings: OT Le’Raven Clark, OG Nate Herbig, OG Isaac Seumalo, DL Armon Watts, LB Cole Holcomb, LB Elandon Roberts, CB Patrick Peterson, CB Chandon Sullivan, S Keanu Neal
Trades: WR Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson, WR
The veteran wideout hoping to rekindle his elite production after two disappointing seasons with the Bears and Rams.
The 29-year-old Seumalo was named a Pro Bowl alternate with Philadelphia last season and should fortify a Pittsburgh offensive line that struggled in run-blocking.
Patrick Peterson, CB
The ageless Peterson posted five interceptions with the Vikings in 2022 and brings a resume with 8 Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro achievements.
Departures
RB Benny Snell, FB Derek Watt, OT Trent Scott, Edge Malik Reed, DL Tyson Alualu, DL Chris Wormley, LB Devin Bush, LB Myles Jack, LB Robert Spillane, CB William Jackson, CB Cameron Sutton, S Terrell Edmunds, S Karl Joseph
Benny Snell, RB
Snell became expendable with the development of RB Jaylen Warren.
Derek Watt, FB
Watt is still a free agent, but it appears Connor Heyward will assume the FB duties this season in Pittsburgh.
Devin Bush, LB
The Steelers declined Bush’s fifth-year option after his Pittsburgh tenure included a torn ACL and inconsistent play.
Myles Jack, LB
The veteran linebacker was released after one season in Pittsburgh.
Robert Spillane, LB
The veteran linebacker played every snap on defense and special teams in 2022. Spillane signed with the Raiders.
William Jackson, CB
Was traded to Pittsburgh midseason, but never played due to a back injury. Was released in March and signed with Cincinnati.
Signed a one-year deal with Philadelphia after struggling with the Steelers over five seasons.
Schedule
Week 1 – San Fransisco 49ers (Steelers +2.5)
Week 2 – Cleveland Browns
Week 3 – @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 4 – @ Houston Texans
Week 5 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 6 – BYE
Week 7– @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 8– Jasonville Jaguars
Week 9– Tennessee Titans
Week 10 – Green Bay Packers
Week 11 – @Cleveland Browns
Week 12 –@ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 14 – New England Patriots
Week 15 – @Indianapolis Colts
Week 16 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 17 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 18 – @Baltimore Ravens
2023 Outlook
DraftKings: Wins Over/Under: 8.5 Wins (-155, +135)
DraftKings: AFC North odds: +550
After a dreadful 2-6 start to open the season, the Steelers managed to rally down the stretch, winning seven of their last nine games, nearly making the playoffs. At 9-8, Mike Tomlin logged his 16th consecutive winning season, yet to finish below .500 in his career. Pittsburgh’s streak without a losing season extends beyond Tomlin’s tenure, dating back to 2003, one of three teams with a winning record 18 years in a row. That said, I’m betting against history and the under on 8.5 wins at +135 odds. Although I do expect the offense to be more functional in Kenny Pickett’s second season, he may be the fourth-best quarterback in his own division. That also has me staying away from their +550 odds to win the AFC North, even as a long shot. Both the Bengals and the Ravens are projected for double-digit wins, while the Browns are hovering the line with a 9.5 over/under win total.
Steelers Best Bets for 2023
Caesars: Steelers To Miss the Playoffs (-150)
The Steelers’ 7-2 record to close out last season was almost enough to clinch a playoff berth, one Miami loss away from getting in as a Wild Card. Although their second half was impressive, the team was almost carried by the defense, receiving little to no help on the offensive side of the ball. In 2022, Pittsburgh’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards per game (322.6) and 26th in scoring (18.1 points per game). They finished dead last in passing touchdowns (12), trailing only the Colts in the fewest trips to the endzone (28 total touchdowns). It was clear the Steelers did not trust Mitch Trubisky or rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, posting a -3.6% pass rate over expectation. Even if Pickett were to a leap in his second season, it’s hard to be optimistic about the offense with Matt Canda returning as the play caller. In Canada’s two full seasons as the offensive coordinator, the Steelers have finished no better than the 21st highest-scoring offense.
FanDuel: Diontae Johnson Over 800.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Diontae Johnson made history last season, logging the most targets (147), receptions (86) and receiving yards (882) of any player not to score a touchdown. However, being shut out of the end zone did not keep Johnson from clearing 800 receiving yards for a second straight season, first without Ben Roethlisberger. Regardless of who is under center, Johnson has demonstrated an elite ability to get open and earn targets. He finished with a 90 rating on ESPN’s “Open Score” metric last season, first in the NFL. Since 2021, Johnston has posted 140-plus targets in three consecutive seasons and is one of only five wide receivers with 450-plus targets during that stretch. Although passing volume is a concern for Pittsburgh, 800 receiving yards feels like a floor for Johnson.
Caesars: George Pickens Over 3.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-149)
Steelers second-round rookie George Pickens was a human highlight reel last season, catching 52 of 84 passes for 801 yards and a team-high four receiving touchdowns. Although four receiving scores may not necessarily stand out, they accounted for 33.33% of Pittsburgh’s passing touchdowns. Despite posting just a 15.56% target share, Pickens led the NFL in passer rating when targeted (109.3), with the third-highest average depth of target in the league (15.6 yards). After another season removed from a torn ACL, it’s hard to envision Pickens scoring fewer than four receiving touchdowns in 2023. The team overall is also due for scoring regression, after finishing dead last in passing touchdowns last season.
