Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Arizona Cardinals. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Arizona Cardinals
2022 Results
Record: 4-13, 4th in the NFC West
Season End: Lost 38-13 to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18
Arizona Cardinals Offseason Summary
Draft
1.6: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
2.41: BJ Ojulari, Edge, LSU
3.72: Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse
3.94: Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
4.122: Jon Gaines, OL, UCLA
5.139: Clayton Tune, QB, Houston
5.168: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn
6.180: Kei’Trel Clark, CB, Louisville
6.213: Dante Stills, DE, West Virginia
Paris Johnson, OT (1.6)
A series of draft-day moves took Arizona from No. 3 to No. 6, where they selected the uber-athletic offensive tackle Paris Johnson from Ohio State. He played tackle and guard in college and will serve as a foundation piece for this offensive line
BJ Ojulari, Edge (2.41)
Cardinals added the talented edge rusher from LSU to a defense in desperate need of creating pressure.
Michael Wilson, WR, (3.94)
The release of DeAndre Hopkins leaves a void on the offense, especially with big receivers. At 6-foot-2, Wilson fits that role as a Round 3 selection with huge upside. Wilson suffered a broken collarbone that ended his senior season but starred in the Senior Bowl to raise his draft stock.
Clayton Tune, QB, (5.139)
A productive quarterback for the Houston Cougars, Tune gives the Cardinals another signal-caller as Kyler Murray rehabs. He certainly doesn’t lack for confidence and has 4.64 40-yard speed.
Additions
Free agent signings: QB David Blough, QB Jeff Driskel, WR Zach Pascal, OG Dennis Daley, OL Hjalte Froholdt, EDGE L.J. Collier, DL Kevin Strong, DL Carlos Watkins, LB Kyzir White, CB Kris Boyd, CB Rashad Fenton, P Matt Haack
Trades: None
Jonathan Gannon, head coach
Jonathan Gannon comes over from Philadelphia after serving two seasons as their defensive coordinator. He spent the prior seven seasons as a defensive back coach for both the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings. Under Gannon, the Eagles boasted a top-10 defense in each of the past two seasons, ranking second in total defense in 2022 (301.5 ypg) and 10th in 2021 (328.8 ypg). The Eagles led the NFL with a single-season franchise-record 70 sacks, the most by any team in the regular season since the 1989 Minnesota Vikings (71).
Kyzir White, LB
Gannon brings over a familiar face from Philadelphia in linebacker Kyzir White. The 27-year-old veteran recorded 110 combined tackles last season and 144 the prior season with the Chargers.
Krys Barnes, LB
Barnes was the third linebacker the Cardinals signed in the offseason, but he could be the key to allowing Isaiah Simmons to play more slot corner. Barnes played well for Green Bay over his three NFL seasons but was limited to six games last year due to an ankle injury.
Departures
QB Trace McSorley, RB Darrel Williams, WR Chosen Anderson, WR Pharoh Cooper, WR A.J. Green, TE Maxx Williams, OG Cody Ford, OG Max Garcia, OG Justin Pugh, C Sean Harlow, C Rodney Hudson, C Billy Price, Edge Markus Golden, DE J.J. Watt, DL Zach Allen, DL Michael Dogbe, DL Trysten Hill, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB Ben Niemann, LB Tanner Vallejo, LB Nick Vigil, CB Byron Murphy, LS Aaron Brewer, P Andy Lee
J.J. Watt, DE
The future Hall-of-Famer returned to post 12.5 sacks in 16 games for the Cardinals. Watt’s retirement and the departure below combine to leave a big void on the Arizona pass rush.
Zach Allen, DE
Allen’s fourth NFL season was his best, recording 5.5 sacks in 13 games with the Cardinals. He signed with Denver in the offseason, which combines with the retirement of J.J. Watt to leave a huge hole on the Arizona defensive line.
Byron Murphy, CB
Murphy signed a two-year, $22 million contract with Minnesota. He was ranked as one of the five top cornerback free agents available.
Schedule
Week 1 – @Washington Commanders (Cardinals +6)
Week 2 – New York Giants
Week 3 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 4 – @San Francisco 49ers
Week 5 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6 – @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 7 – @Seattle Seahawks
Week 8– Baltimore Ravens
Week 9– @Cleveland Browns
Week 10– Atlanta Falcons
Week 11 – @ Houston Texans
Week 12 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 13 –@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14 – BYE
Week 15 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 16 – @ Chicago Bears
Week 17 – @Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18 – Seattle Seahawks
2023 Future Odds
DraftKings/BetMGM/Caesars/PointsBet: Wins Over/Under – 4.5 (-120/+100)
FanDuel/Caesars: To Win NFC West (+2700)
After an abysmal 4-13 season, the Cardinals fired their four-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury despite extending him through 2027 last offseason. They replaced him with former Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon fresh off a Super Bowl run where he led the No. 2 overall defense in 2022. Gannon’s defense was a force to be reckoned with last season, setting a new single-season record in total sacks (70), finishing second in offensive yards allowed per game (301.5) and first in passing yards allowed per game (179.8). The Cardinals also hired former Titans director of player personnel Monti Ossenfort as their new general manager after Steve Kiem announced he would be stepping away from the team. With Kyler Murray likely out to start the season, Arizona is projected to have the worst record in 2023. Without more clarity on Murray’s status, I’m staying away from their 4.5-win total. Although +2700 to win the NFC West may have some value competing against only three other teams, it’s also a no-bet for me.
Best Bets
BetMGM: James Conner Under 6.5 Rushing TDs (-110)
James Conner has been a scoring machine since joining the Cardinals in 2021, surpassing his 6.5 rushing touchdowns prop in back-to-back seasons. After leading the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns two seasons ago, Conner found the endzone seven times on the ground in 2021. Despite missing four games due to injuries last season, Conner had no limitations when he was active, ranking sixth at the position in snap rate (70.5%), and eighth in opportunity share (71%). Although there isn’t much competition behind Conner, it’s unclear how the new coaching staff will rotate their backs, especially given the success of the Eagles’ committee approach. Conner has also struggled with health, playing over 13 games in just two out of six seasons. Playing on a team projected for the fewest wins in 2023, I’m taking the under on 6.5 rushing touchdowns.
BetMGM: Marquise Brown Over 799.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With DeAndre Hopkins serving a six-game suspension at the start of the 2021 season, Marquise Brown hit the ground running, displaying immediate chemistry with his college quarterback Kyler Murray. In Weeks 1-6, Brown averaged 10.7 targets for 7.17 receptions, 80.83 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Although Murray’s status is to be determined, there aren’t many options behind Brown with Hopkins no longer on the team. They’ll also be without Zach Ertz to start the season, who quietly averaged 7.56 targets in nine healthy games before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 10. I’m taking the over on 799.5 receiving yards for Brown, making a bet on volume. The last time Brown played more than 12 games, he posted a career-high 1,008 receiving yards,playing on a Ravens team that finished bottom 10 in pass rate (54.2%), and third in rush attempts per game (30).
