NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We have a really interesting wide receiver class in the 2023 NFL Draft. You won’t find a Ja’Marr Chase-level prospect. And you won’t find Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith or Garrett Wilson. But there are still plenty of really good players, especially in the later round of the draft.
So who are some potential sleeper fantasy wide receivers that will be selected on the second day of April’s draft? Let’s take a look.
Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell, WR, Houston
5-foot-10, 165 pounds
2022 stats: 108 catches, 1,399 yards, 17 TDs
Initially at JUCO-level Independence Community College, Dell transferred to Houston in 2020 before becoming one of the most productive wide receivers in all of college football. Dell broke out as a sophomore, hauling in 91 passes for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns, giving him consecutive seasons with over 1,300 receiving yards and double-digit scores. As you’d expect, Houston ran their offense through Dell, often moving him around the formation, especially pre-snap.
Strengths
With the last name Dell, let’s look at it like this: If Tank were a computer, he would be a laptop, rather than a desktop. He has a smaller build but is incredibly productive, can be used anywhere and runs relatively fast. Make sense? Perhaps Dell’s top trait is his change of direction speed and suddenness, especially after the catch. Once he puts his foot in the ground, you can forget about it, as Dell can be lethal in the open field. His 20 missed tackles forced were just outside the top-20 wide receivers from the 2022 collegiate campaign, while Dell also displays that elusiveness in the return game, as he was an electric punt returner for Houston. Dell is an extremely versatile player, as he played from both the slot and the perimeter during his time in Houston. The slot rate climbed during his final season, lining up on the inside just over 67% of the time, compared to a 50.4% slot rate in 2021. Houston would use him in pre-snap motion a ton, but more so in 2021 than 2022. And yes, at 5-10, 165 pounds, Dell is going to primarily play on the inside in the NFL but that doesn’t mean he can’t make an impact on the boundary.
Many teams might be concerned about Dell’s ability to win against press man coverage, but I think he is going to be just fine there. He has plenty of experience playing on the outside and during this year’s Senior Bowl, Dell wasn’t just the best wide receiver, but one of the best overall players. In the WR/DB drills, Dell consistently won against press coverage with his exceptional release and quickness. Facing off against long, physical defensive backs such as Darius Rush and Rejzohn Wright, Dell created separation with relative ease. Dell has this hesitation crossover at the line of scrimmage that freezes the defender and often has them reaching in press man coverage. Houston would call a lot of plays from inside the 5-yard line where they come out in a heavy, one-wide receiver formation where Dell would have one-on-one coverage and no inside help because the defenders are in close to play the run. Dell’s footwork and release were too much for opposing defenders, leading to easy short touchdowns.
Would you like it if Dell were 6-2, 215? Sure. It would help him project better against press coverage at the next level. But in order to bump him off his route, defenders will have to be able to get their hands on him and with Dell’s excellent footwork, release package and speed, it will be easier said than done.
I also was a fan of Dell’s ability, willingness and awareness to get open for his quarterback when the play breaks down. During his time at Houston, quarterback Clayton Tune scrambled very often and when that happened, Dell did a tremendous job of realizing it and running back to an open space to help his quarterback. And it makes sense, too, considering you simply cannot defend Dell for more than a few seconds.
Areas of Improvement
While I absolutely love Dell as a prospect, there are certainly some aspects of his game that he needs to work on. His release package is impressive, and he is going to be tough to cover, but at the NFL level, Dell is going to have to speed up his process. He’ll often take a bit long to get into his routes and with the speed and improved pass rushes in the NFL, the internal clock has to be even faster. Of course, while I’m not exactly worried about it, the fact that Dell will enter the league as arguably the smallest receiver does cap his upside a bit, especially if his ability to get open doesn’t immediately transition to the NFL.
Dell also has had some issues with drops throughout his collegiate career, which is something that can easily be addressed. It has happened to multiple receivers coming into the league, though a lot of his drops are concentration drops where he lets the defender knock the ball out of his hands. Dell has 21 dropped passes over the last two years, while his catch radius obviously isn’t anything to write home about. Finally, from a dynasty fantasy football perspective, Dell will be 24-years old when the season starts.
Player comparison: Darnell Mooney/Calvin Austin
Ideal Landing Spots
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson is arguably the top wideout in the game, but Adam Thielen is gone, and with how often Jefferson sees bracket coverage, the Vikings could use a crisp route-running WR who can get open for Kirk Cousins.
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London is the WR1, and you hope Kyle Pitts turns it up in Year 3. But outside of that, Atlanta is looking at a lot of holes at WR2 and WR3, given their impending free agents.
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
5-foot-9, 171 pounds
2022 stats: 94 receptions, 1,209 yards, 11 TDs
Strengths
Downs is my favorite wide receiver in this entire draft class. His footwork is exceptional, and it often looks like he is almost dancing or gliding when running routes. Downs is fantastic at getting separation, especially in the red zone on whip routes and double moves, which is a huge reason he scored 11 touchdowns last season. Simply put, Downs knows how to manipulate defenders and get open for his quarterback. In 2022 at North Carolina, Downs primarily played out of the slot, lining up there on 407 snaps, compared to just 70 snaps out wide. He is really, really good at altering his tempo when running routes, which always keeps opposing defensive backs guessing when covering him.
Despite being 5-9, Downs is arguably the best contested catch wideout in this entire draft class. He plays way larger than his frame, always attacking the football when in the air. Downs had 13 contested catches this past season, while sporting a contested catch rate just north of 70%. Between his contested catch skills and ability to get open in the red zone, Downs is going to be an awesome target on slot fades in the end zone. His catch radius and toughness are really, really impressive, especially when you consider his size.
Areas of Improvement
Like many receivers in this draft class, Downs doesn’t have a ton of reps against press coverage on the outside, though he is going to mostly play from the slot at the NFL level anyway. And because he is going to play from the slot, I’d like to see him play with a bit more consistency in the middle of the field.
Player comparison: Hunter Renfrow with better contested catch skills
Ideal Landing Spots
Minnesota Vikings: Read above. And Downs would be an even better fit alongside Justin Jefferson.
Buffalo Bills: It got so bad for Buffalo at slot receiver last season that they brought back Cole Beasley late in the year. Isaiah McKenzie isn’t consistent, and Jamison Crowder missed most of the season with injury. Buffalo’s offense was far too reliant on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs being superstars last season.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
6-foot-3, 213 pounds
2022 stats: 37 receptions, 417 yards, 3 TDs (6 games)
While Jalin Hyatt is getting all of the attention, I believe Tillman is the best wide receiver from Tennessee. In 2022, he battled through a high-ankle sprain that limited him to just six games. But if you go back and watch his tape from the 2021 season, you know how truly talented he is. Tillman absolutely torched Alabama and Georgia during that season to the tune of 7-152-1 and 10-200-1. He finished that 2021 campaign with 64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns and if he didn’t have an ankle injury this past season, we could be looking at Tillman as a consensus top-five receiver from this class.
Strengths
Tillman plays with incredible physicality, often attacking the football. He doesn’t let the football come to him, but rather goes after the football. He is very different from many of the receivers in this class, as Tillman wins with physicality, size, catch radius and ball skills, rather than suddenness, release and quickness. He is very good at positioning himself to get the best opportunity to come down with the football and while it is cliche, 50/50 balls feel more like 60/40 when it comes to Tillman.
His body control is very strong, and he seems to always be aware of his feet when landing down the sideline.
When he does have the ball in his hands, Tillman is actually pretty solid after the catch. He isn’t going to make multiple defenders miss with lateral agility, cuts and speed. Instead, that aforementioned physicality translates to his YAC game, as Tillman looks to run through defenders, often pulling defenders for extra yardage.
Areas of Improvement
Tennessee’s offense was a spread/stack formation that created a ton of free releases for wide receivers. As a result, Tillman, despite primarily playing on the boundary, hasn’t seen a ton of reps against press coverage. He can fight through physical defensive backs with his hands and size, but I’d like to see him improve on his release and footwork. Tillman also lacks the rudeness and twitch coming out of his routes, though perhaps dealing with a high-ankle sprain most of last season didn’t exactly help with that.
Player comparison: Bryan Edwards/Michael Pittman
Ideal Landing Spots
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have needed help at receiver for years now, so it is no surprise to see them on this list. If Lamar Jackson remains in Baltimore, he could use a player like Tillman who presents a large catch radius, as the Ravens don’t have a perimeter wide receiver to speak of, really.
Chicago Bears: After Darnell Mooney, the Bears don’t have much at wide receiver. With the Bears likely to trade back in the draft, they can stockpile draft picks, which would put them in a good position to draft Tillman. Once the team traded for Chase Claypool last season, Mooney moved to the slot 65-70% of the time. Tillman could be the team’s third wideout in three-wide sets.
New York Giants: We know the Giants need help at wide receiver, especially with Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Richie James all set to hit free agency. Isaiah Hodgins was a great addition last season, and although he is 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, he mostly wins in the middle/intermediate areas of the field.
