NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camps will start for rookies in two weeks, with veterans reporting about one week after. The NFL Hall of Fame Game begins in just three weeks, which means it’s the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.
The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the NFC West.
Geno Smith 3,900.5 Passing Yards
There is a lot of belief in Geno Smith after his first productive season in nine years. The 32-year-old Seattle starting quarterback eclipsed 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, with his second-highest total coming in 2013 as a rookie with the Jets. However, Smith’s 2022 season was anything but consistent. His production was greatly bolstered by a few massive performances. Using our FTN Weekly Fantasy Finishes Tool, we can see just how volatile Smith’s production was last year.
Look for defenses to adjust to Smith and the Seattle offense this season. The Seahawks entered last year with just a 4.5 projected win total, a full four games below this year’s mark. Smith’s best games last year came against the Seahawks’ worst opponents, including Detroit (QB2), Los Angeles Rams (QB3) and Arizona (QB5). Seattle has a much tougher schedule this year, with non-divisional games against the AFC North and NFC East. The Seahawks also have a brutal November and December stretch of opponents, including San Francisco (twice), at Dallas, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. There are a ton of outs to any season-long under, but Smith has even more than most. Are we really sold on a repeat performance from a veteran journeyman quarterback?
I’ll take the under on Smith’s 3,900.5 passing yardage total at DraftKings.
PICK: Geno Smith Under 3,900.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns
If you look at Christian McCaffrey’s rushing production historically, this total will actually be difficult to hit.
McCaffrey is such a versatile running back that he scores a large part of his touchdowns on receptions rather than rushing. In his four full NFL seasons, McCaffrey has produced 20 receiving scores. During that same time period, he rushed for 32 touchdowns, but that number is greatly skewed by McCaffrey’s 15 rushing touchdowns in 2019.
Using our FTN Player Utilization Tool, we see that McCaffrey only accounted for 47% of his team’s rushing touchdowns, one of the lowest marks among the NFL’s elite running backs.
Last year, San Francisco had five different players score two or more touchdowns, including former running back Jeff Wilson (2), Elijah Mitchell (2) and wide receiver Deebo Samuel (3). There are always concerns about keeping McCaffery healthy, so I project the 49ers to continue to be cautious with giving McCaffrey repeated goal-line touches. Last year, McCaffrey only ranked 12th among all running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line and 13th in carries inside the five-yard line.
This number is available at under 6.5 touchdowns at -102 on FanDuel, but I’ll grab the extra touchdown cushion with slightly higher juice on BetMGM.
PICK: Christian McCaffrey Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-110 BetMGM)
Tyler Higbee 500.5 Receiving Yards
The 30-year-old Tyler Higbee has beaten this number comfortably in each of the past four seasons despite missing games in three of those years. He even beat this number in 2022 despite only playing nine games with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford.
This number is suppressed because of the return of Rams’ leading wideout Cooper Kupp. However, using our FTN Game Splits Tool, we can see there is very little difference in Higbee’s production with or without Kupp on the field.
It is clear (and unsurprising) that this Rams offense is much more productive with Stafford under center. Look at the percentage differences in the nine games with Stafford in 2022.
This prop is overcompensating for the return of Kupp but not accounting for the consistent production by Higbee regardless of offensive personnel. I’m very comfortable backing Higbee to beat this number.
PICK: Tyler Higbee Over 500.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)
