2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (8/22)

Two NFL preseason weeks have come and gone, and we are starting to get a clear picture of which players will have fantasy football value during the 2023 NFL season. While the preseason typically features limited reps for starters in watered-down versions of the offense, important information can be gleaned based on who plays, who doesn’t play, and how long players stay in the game.

Like anything, preseason information needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That is easier said than done in fantasy circles, where a big game or significant news blurb can have a massive impact on ADP, especially when more and more fantasy gamers are starting to draft teams. Below you will find this week’s biggest movers on Underdog fantasy. Data charts in the article are courtesy of FTN Fantasy’s new ADP Exploitation tool, so make sure to check that out to help you understand current draft trends to draft the most unique (and value-exploiting) team possible today. 

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints

It has been a strange draft cycle and preseason for Kendre Miller. The rookie running back injured his knee in his final game with TCU, prompting him to miss most of the testing during the NFL combine. The injury didn’t hurt his draft stock too much considering Miller was still taken with the 71st overall pick by the New Orleans Saints. While New Orleans has a crowded backfield, this was largely a positive landing spot thanks to a pending suspension for Alvin Kamara and the only other competition being Jamaal Williams, a 28-year-old running back coming off a touchdown-heavy season.

Then Miller missed his OTAs and the start of training camp while healing from his knee injury. When Miller was finally cleared, he suffered another injury (to the same knee) that was expected to keep him out for weeks. Things were trending in a direction that pointed to Miller missing time to start his rookie season, which caused his ADP to rise 18.9 spots over the last week.

Then a curious thing happened. Miller bounced back quickly from his second knee injury and wound up playing a considerable role for the Saints in their second preseason game. Miller had a modest game on the ground (10 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown) but flashed his ability to be a pass-game weapon out of the backfield, catching all three of his targets for 36 yards (including a diving reception down the field).

Now that Miller is healthy and flashed in the preseason, you can expect his ADP to swing in the other direction. Regardless, he’s a talented running back behind two older veterans (one of which is guaranteed to miss three games) and should be targeted as a bench running back (or RB4/5 in best ball). There is a very realistic outcome that he earns a significant role for the Saints this season.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott officially has a home after signing a contract with the New England Patriots just two weeks before the start of the season. Predictably, the certainty about his 2023 landing spot has caused the veteran running back’s ADP to improve by two rounds (26.4 spots) to pick 148.5 over the last week.

Elliott has certainly taken a step back over the past few seasons, but he will still have a great deal of touchdown upside with the New England Patriots. While Rhamondre Stevenson will still command most of the touches (and the valuable pass-catching work) in this backfield, Elliott can have an impact on his fantasy scoring ability by siphoning off the goal-line touches (and potentially getting work as a pass-protector on third downs).

If Elliott’s ADP remains in this range (roughly the double-digit rounds), then he has a chance to return value given his new role in a new offense that historically likes to divide running back touches. However, he would likely qualify as a fade if his ADP starts to creep into that dead zone running back range. Continue to monitor and mix him into your drafts in the near future.

Deuce Vaughn, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Everybody loves a story, especially when that story involves an underdog. One of the best candidates to fulfill that narrative comes in the form of rookie running back Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn was a prolific weapon during his time with Kansas State, carrying the ball 651 times for 3,604 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and scoring 34 rushing touchdowns while adding 116 receptions for 1,280 yards and nine receiving scores. Of course, Vaughn measured in at just 5-foot-5 and 179 pounds at his Pro Day while running a 4.61 40-yard dash, which hurt his stock in the eyes of NFL evaluators. The storybook didn’t end there though. Vaughn was ultimately selected in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Cowboys, the team that his father works for as a college scout.

The rookie running back has looked good at spurts throughout the preseason, totaling 13 carries for 64 yards and two touchdowns while catching four passes for five yards. That modest production (combined with the narrative surrounding Vaughn) has spurred a huge jump in ADP (21.7 spots) over the last week.

Be careful trusting Vaughn and grabbing him in fantasy drafts. The reality is, Vaughn is at best the fourth running back in the Cowboy’s backfield, well behind Tony Pollard and working in after Malik Davis and Rico Dowdle. Even if Pollard were to get injured, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Vaughn would be more than a gadget player during his rookie season.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos 

Many thought Greg Dulcich would emerge as the top tight in Denver, which is always a position to target given Sean Payton’s history of utilizing athletic tight ends in his offense. Unfortunately, Dulcich has had trouble separating from the pack and is now in danger of losing a full-time role at the tight-end position. Through two games, Dulcich has routinely sacrificed snaps in different personnel packages to former Payton draft pick Adam Trautman.

That is decidedly not good for a player who is currently being drafted as the TE16 in Underdog drafts despite a 16.4-spot climb in ADP over the last week. To score points, Dulcich needs to be on the field. However, Payton seems content going with Trautman’s steady blocking over Dulcich’s dynamic receiving ability early in his head coaching tenure with the Broncos. This is something that warrants monitoring as it can have a massive impact on fantasy managers thinking they will sneak a value-tight end in the middle rounds.