Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Jets first season with a new coaching staff in 2021 wasn’t anything to remember, as they finished with a 4-13 record and had a handful of games where they were absolutely dismantled. However, between an outstanding general manager, innovative offensive coordinator, exciting head coach and an influx of new talent, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about the Jets heading into 2022.
Let’s take a look at the team’s coaching and coordinator situation for 2022 and how it impacts fantasy football.
New York Jets Head Coach: Robert Saleh
49ers defensive coordinator 2017-2020, NYJ HC since 2021
The Jets brought in a brand-new regime in 2021, led by new head coach Robert Saleh, who was the defensive coordinator in San Francisco from 2017 to 2020. After helping San Francisco become consistent top-10 defensive units in each year of his tenure, Saleh actually did not handle the defensive play-calling with the Jets. It was certainly a down season for New York, finishing with a 4-13 record, though injuries certainly didn’t help with the matter. Both Zach Wilson and Elijah Moore missed a handful of games, while Mike White and Joe Flacco started more games than any team would hope. The defense, however, was a bit of a disappointment considering Saleh has such a heavy defensive background. The Jets allowed the most points per drive (2.67) in the entire NFL, while also coughing up the fourth-most yards per drive (35.3). Opposing offenses scored points on 48.9% of drives against the Jets this past season, the highest rate in the league. New York did add plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball via the draft and free agency, however, so I’d expect them to be much improved in that department in 2022.
Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
49ers passing game coordinator 2019-2020, Falcons offensive assistant 2015-2016
While the overall numbers didn’t jump off the page in 2021, Mike LaFleur still showed that he can be a very good offensive coordinator in this league.
LaFleur came over with Saleh from San Francisco last season, so he is very familiar with the 49ers scheme. He’s been working alongside Kyle Shanahan for years, operating as San Francisco’s passing game coordinator 2019-2020, while also working with Shanahan as an offensive assistant in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016. That said, it wasn’t very surprising to see the Jets implement more outside zone running schemes, which have been a staple in Shanahan’s offenses in the past. As a rookie, Michael Carter started 11 games last season. 89 of his 170 rushing attempts came out of zone schemes (52.3%), while his 39 outside runs tied for 13th among all running backs, despite missing three games. In 2020, the Jets were a man-to-man blocking unit but that changed this past season. The strength of this offensive line is a wide zone-blocking scheme, which will continue in 2022. Center Connor McGovern graded out as PFF’s No. 17 run-blocking offensive lineman out of zone schemes, while the team also added Laken Tomlinson during free agency, who is extremely familiar with this offensive system. Tomlinson spent five seasons with the 49ers and is coming off a Pro Bowl campaign in 2021. And in that season, he was PFF’s 12th-best run-blocking guard out of zone. A starting offensive line consisting of George Fant, Tomlinson, McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mekhi Becton could not only be one of the best zone-blocking units in football, but one of the best overall.
Enter rookie running back Breece Hall, who the Jets traded up to select toward the top of the second round back in April. Hall is widely regarded as the top running back in this class and should fit this Jets offense well, as 175 of his 253 rushing attempts from last year came out of zone-blocking schemes (69.1%). Hall has tremendous vision and burst (4.39 speed), which is key when playing in a zone-blocking scheme. We should also continue to see much more pre-snap motion from this offense because, well, that is what this West Coast scheme is based upon. San Francisco has seemingly ranked inside the top-five in pre-snap motion every year since Shanahan has been there, while the Jets climbed quite a bit in their first season with LaFleur calling plays. In 2021, the Jets used pre-snap motion 15% of the time, the 13th-highest rate in the NFL. It was certainly an uptick from the 2020 season where the Jets were outside of the top-20 in pre-snap motion. Staying with the San Francisco parallels, the Jets also made an effort to incorporate more after-the-catch concepts. It has been a staple in the 49ers offense, as Jimmy Garoppolo has ranked first in yards after the catch per completion in his two healthy seasons with the team. Meanwhile, Nick Mullens averaged 5.9 yards after the catch per completion (third most) back in 2020. This past season, the Jets climbed to 5.6, the seventh-highest mark in football, and it was especially evident when Mike White and Joe Flacco were under center. LaFleur implemented more crossing patterns and it’ll be interesting to see what the combination of Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson can do in this system, especially given the fact that they’ll see their fair share of free releases.
While it is unlikely this unit emerges as a clear top-10 unit in the NFL, the Jets offense showed some flashes during the second half of the season. Remember, Wilson missed a handful of games during his rookie season, so a hot start wasn’t expected. But it’ll be interesting to see if we see an uptick in play-action passing from the Jets this year, especially if the ground game is as effective as I believe it could be. New York sported a modest 30.2% play-action rate this past season, while Shanahan’s offenses in San Francisco have hovered around the 40% mark over the last two seasons. Wilson ranked just 27th among qualified signal callers in play-action dropback rate at just 24.3%. Look for an uptick in play-action passing this season, though Wilson has to be better in that regard, as he completed just 48% of his passes with three touchdowns to five interceptions off the play type.
Target Distribution
In this San Francisco scheme we tend to see receivers and tight ends see the majority of the targets. Of course, the 49ers had one of the best tight ends in football in George Kittle, who has been elite in terms of targets per route run. During LaFleur’s first season with the Jets, the target breakdown didn’t present any crazy outliers, though the running back targets are an interesting talking point. Running backs saw around 17% of the targets last season, slightly below the league average of 18.4%. However, it seemed to be more quarterback-specific than scheme-specific.
Let’s take a look.
Michael Carter saw serious splits with and without Zach Wilson in the lineup. In fact, in 10 games alongside Wilson, Carter averaged just 3.2 targets per game, but in the four games without him, that number jumped to six targets per game. Of course, Wilson is a quarterback with crazy arm talent and takes more shots than Mike White and Joe Flacco, which is why I don’t necessarily believe it is a scheme thing. But Wilson checked the ball down just four percent of the time during his rookie year, below the league average rate of seven percent. Ty Johnson, meanwhile, saw his targets drop from 4.5 targets per game without Wilson to 3.3 with Wilson, who sported the third-longest average time to throw in all of football (2.84 seconds). It’ll be interesting to see if the running backs are more involved in the passing game in the second year of this system, especially with Breece Hall added to the mix.
Pace
In year one with LaFleur at the helm of the offense, the Jets actually played pretty fast, averaging 25.7 seconds per snap. That was the fourth-fastest pace in the NFL in 2021, though they were slightly below average in no-huddle rate at 9.07 percent. And in the second half of games, the pace climbed a bit, as they averaged 25.3 seconds per play after halftime, tied for the second-fastest rate in football. In 2020, the Jets were slightly below league average in terms of pace (26.7 seconds per snap), while also ranking league average in second half pace of play. Given the system, it is also no surprise to see that the Jets ranked 14th in the league in neutral-script run rate (44.5%).
Fantasy Football Takeaways
Zach Wilson certainly didn’t have a rookie season to remember in 2021. Only Mike Glennon posted a lower completion rate than Wilson (55.6%), while his 69.9% adjusted completion rate was fifth worst in football. Wilson also ranked 31st in yards per attempt (6.1) and 21st in air yards per attempt (7.6). Of course, a rookie struggling in year one isn’t anything to freak out over and Wilson has the opportunity to take massive strides in year two. The Jets added some serious talent on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, while Wilson did show some upside down the stretch last season, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in two of his final seven games. He showcased that immense arm talent and added plenty of points via rushing, averaging nearly 24 rushing yards per game during that span.
Breece Hall will likely operate as the Jets lead running back in year one, though Michael Carter will certainly still play a role. Hall saw a massive workload during his time at Iowa State, recording the most total touches in college football over the last two seasons, while accumulating 718 attempts over the last three years. Hall was 10th in the nation in missed tackles forced last year (76) and put together a stellar combine, running a 4.39 40-yard dash. Like we talked about earlier, he should be a good scheme fit, as nearly 70% of his 2021 carries were out of zone-blocking schemes. The Jets will want to run the football and project to have one of the better run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Hall is a very intriguing RB2 with RB1 upside as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, Carter’s value took a hit when the Jets traded up to select Hall in the draft. A fourth-rounder in 2021, Carter split the North Carolina backfield with Javonte Williams and while he had a few large workload games as a rookie, he projects as a pass-catching running back who will get 8-10 carries in the NFL. Still, Carter was impressive last season, ranking 11th among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.37) and 12th in missed tackles forced (39). He has tremendous contact balance and will likely open the year as New York’s 1B, giving him potential flex value out the gate. But if Hall takes over this backfield, Carter will become tough to trust in your fantasy lineups.
Elijah Moore’s rookie campaign got off to a slow start but once he got going, he showed he can play receiver at an extremely high level. In Weeks 8-13, Moore averaged 8.5 targets, 5.6 receptions, 76.5 receiving yards, 0.83 touchdowns and 18.9 PPR points per game, making him the WR4 in fantasy during that stretch. Unfortunately, a quad injury cut his season short, as Moore did not take the field again the rest of his rookie campaign. Moore became the focal point of this Jets passing attack and even with Garrett Wilson being added this offseason, there is still room for a tremendous sophomore campaign, just as long as Zach Wilson takes that next step in year two.
Garrett Wilson was my favorite receiver in this year’s draft class and apparently the Jets loved him too, selecting him 10th overall back in April. Wilson is a great route-runner with tremendous change of direction and suddenness. He’ll be a perfect fit in this Mike LaFleur offense that features a ton of pre-snap motion and schemes receivers open to get them going after the catch. The Jets receiver room is suddenly crowded but as a top-10 selection, Wilson’s pedigree is great, and he should be a weekly flex/WR3 for fantasy.
The Jets made an effort to improve the tight end position during free agency, signing both Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah. While Conklin and Uzomah are both good real life tight ends, it will be difficult to trust either player as a reliable fantasy option this season.
Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich
Falcons defensive coordinator and linebackers coach 2020, Jets DC since 2021
Ulbrich and the Jets defense are coming off a rough season, allowing a league-worst 2.67 points per drive, while opposing offenses scored points on 48.9% of drives, the highest rate in football. The secondary was a real issue, as the Jets allowed the seventh-most completions per game (23.6) and third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5). The personnel wasn’t great, while the team was missing Carl Lawson and Marcus Maye for much of the season. Reinforcements are on the way, as the team added Sauce Gardner, Jordan Whitehead and D.J. Reed to the secondary, while also adding Jermaine Johnson in the first round of the draft. It’ll be interesting to see what Johnson and a healthy Lawson can do in Saleh’s wide-9 defensive scheme
