Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL draft has some major implications for the fantasy football landscape, as every year we see a reshuffling of the deck. In some instances, team have gaping holes that need to be filled. In others, an aging vet could see his eventual replacement selected. Still others, a surprise pick may have us completely questioning what we previously thought.
With the draft just two days away, let’s take a look at some of the biggest situations to monitor for fantasy football purposes.
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Will the Steelers draft a running back in Round 1?
All eyers are on Pittsburgh as team brass has continually talked about the need to get better in the run game. The Steelers have finished in the bottom five in rushing in each of the last three years and really haven’t been able to do much of anything since Le'Veon Bell was out of the mix.
Pittsburgh will likely have a golden opportunity to select a three-down back who could help resurrect their inept run game at pick 24. They could end up with their choice of either Travis Etienne or Najee Harris in that spot. Harris is currently the betting favorite to be the first running back selected and would be a better scheme fit. It would be hard to not view him or Etienne as a top-15 fantasy option in a Steelers uniform.
Will the Bills draft a running back in Round 1?
Piggybacking off the Steelers, we could also see a running back go to the Bills at pick 30. However, I don’t think the Bills would go for Harris in that spot. We’d really need Etienne to fall for Buffalo to go this route. General manager Brandon Beane has noted that the team would be interested in adding a back with “home run” ability, which is much more descriptive of Etienne than it is of Harris.
While Etienne would step into somewhat of a crowded house in Buffalo along with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, he’d be the obvious cream of the crop. It would be hard not to like his fantasy upside in the high-powered Bills offense.
Will QB-needy teams trade up for a signal caller?
At this point, we can all but guarantee that the first three picks will be quarterbacks. But that still leaves two first-round talents on the board with some combination of Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. We also know that the Patriots, Broncos, Football Team and Bears are all in the market for a quarterback.
The Falcons aren’t necessarily in need of a quarterback but could certainly take Matt Ryan’s successor with the fourth overall pick. They could also trade out of that spot, like we have them doing in our Mock Draft 4.0. Miami, Detroit and Carolina have also been rumored to be fielding offers for the sixth, seventh and eighth picks.
Another angle we can’t rule out is that one or more of these teams could address the position early on Day 2 of the draft. Kyle Trask has been widely considered a second-round option, and both Davis Mills and Kellen Mond have been buzzing in the buildup to the draft. Currently, the Broncos would get the first crack at a quarterback on Day 2 with the 40th overall selection. New England is at 46, and the Football Team and Bears are back-to-back at 51 and 52.
Do the Bengals go offensive line or skill position weapon in the Round 1?
Many view it as a foregone conclusion that Cincinnati will select Penei Sewell, but that’s far from a lock. The Bengals offensive line needs work, but it’s fair to argue that they’re much better at tackle than they are along their interior. Of course, that doesn’t mean Cincinnati wouldn’t move Riley Reiff or Jonah Williams to guard, but it seems more likely they go will a skill guy.
The rumor mill suggests Joe Burrow is lobbying for his former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase to be the pick. However, things would get very interesting if Kyle Pitts is on the board. Either one would be an instant-impact player for the Bengals and would help make Burrow very appealing for fantasy purposes, provide Cincinnati does attempt to address their offensive line later in the draft.
Do the Falcons trade Julio Jones?
While this one doesn’t directly relate to the draft, there would be a major ripple effect if the Falcons decided to move on from Jones. Doing so would almost certainly mean Atlanta addressing the position in the draft. We likely wouldn’t see a wideout at the fourth overall pick — if the Falcons keep it — so that could mean the No. 35 pick on Day 2 could be a receiver. Of course, that would mean the Falcons didn’t address running back in that spot, which is also a position of need.
For Jones’ sake, 2020 wasn’t a banner year. Injuries caused him to miss seven games, which was just the second time in his NFL career that he didn’t suit up for at least 13 games. However, he’s still more than capable of being a No. 1 receiver at 32 years old. That also means he’s more than capable of being a high-quality fantasy option in the right landing spot.
Does Baltimore get Lamar Jackson another receiver?
The Ravens are in a very good spot to address their wideout woes with two picks at the back end of the first round (27th and 31st) following their trade with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens have drafted two wide receivers in each of their last three drafts: Devin Duvernay (third) and James Proche (sixth) in 2020, Marquise Brown (first) and Miles Boykin (third) in 2019, and Jaleel Scott (fifth) and Jordan Lasley (sixth) in 2018.
With the exception of Brown, there’s been little to no success from that list. There will be plenty of interesting options on the board for Baltimore at the tail end of the first round. That could mean someone like Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney or Terrace Marshall Jr. Any one of those players would complement Brown and open things up for Jackson in the passing game with another speedy option.
Will the Lions address their wide receiver corps?
On paper, Detroit has arguably the league’s worst collection of wide receivers with Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Geronimo Allison currently penciled in as the starters. The fantasy football community seems to have collective amnesia about Williams, but the veteran has really only had one good season and that came all the way back in 2016. Likewise, Perriman has generally been lackluster at best outside of his five-game run with Jameis Winston in 2019.
Detroit will be in a position to draft a high-end player at the position at pick seven, but they could also go in a number of other directions in that spot. The good news is that there is a ton of depth in this year’s class on Day 2. If the Lions do select a wideout in one of the first two rounds, that player will likely be positioned to be Jared Goff’s top wide receiver. That said, T.J. Hockenson would remain the favorite to lead the team in targets in 2021.
Other situations to monitor
The New Orleans Saints seem to be set on either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill as their starting quarterback, but Sean Payton’s squad has limited receiving weapons for whoever ends up with the job. … Arizona added James Conner in free agency and have Chase Edmonds still on the roster, but that’s a team to watch at running back. … And so are the Cardinals’ divisional rivals, the 49ers. All of our attention has been on what San Francisco does at quarterback, but a Day 2 running back pick would have some serious fantasy implications. … We also have heard rumblings that the Eagles could be in the market for a running back. Going that route could have some serious ramifications for Miles Sanders’ fantasy value.
