FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
Week 6 of the fantasy football season is here, and my brain is already fried from trying to figure out who to start with all these bye weeks. But luckily, my “10 Things” is here to provide some much-needed clarity with insights to help you dominate your league.
1. JuJu on That Beat (Carefully): Don’t Get Too Hyped Just Yet
JuJu Smith-Schuster turned back the clock in the absence of Rashee Rice to the tune of seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards in Week 5, his first game with 100 or more receiving yards since Week 7 of the 2022 season.
Per FTN StatsHub, JuJu led the Chiefs in yards per target (16.3) and yards per route (18.6) and was second to Travis Kelce in targets, receptions and terrible mustaches. But keep expectations in check. As Jeff Ratcliffe said, it’s been one game. Patrick Mahomes likes to spread the ball around, and without a true alpha at receiver, we could see that even more prominent in the passing game. If JuJu is available on the waiver wire, pick him up, but don’t overpay. I’d also shop him around for anybody fully buying into the hype. Dont give him away; there’s upside to be had. But if you can get the likes of Jakobi Meyers, Romeo Doubs or Rico Dowdle in return (maybe a soon-to-return Jonathon Brooks?), make a move. You risk missing out if JuJu truly becomes the guy in KC, but the odds are against that coming to fruition.
2. The Curious Case of the Benched Starter
Blind resume time! Antonio Gibson was elevated to starting running back in Week 5 over Rhamondre Stevenson due to recent fumbling issues. Any guesses as to which usage stat line below belongs to Gibson and which belongs to Stevenson?
Of course, the benched running back outsnapped, out-touched and outperformed the ceremonial “starter.” Because… football. Many others speculated that “benching” was more of a motivational tactic, which proved to be the case. There were plenty of positive signs for Stevenson — he handled all the red zone carries, avoided three tackles to Gibson’s zero, and had more explosive runs (3-2), including a 33-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Gibson isn’t going away, however. He saw just two fewer snaps than Stevenson and was more efficient running the ball, gaining 8.7 yards per carry to Stevenson’s 7.4. Rhamondre is still the Pats running back I want in fantasy and should have RB2 value for the rest of the season. But Gibson will be involved. He’s a moderate flex play and a potential bye-week fill-in.
3. TLaw’s Revival: Short-Lived or Long-Awaited Breakout?
A slow start to the season for Trevor Lawrence finally turned in Week 5, as TLaw threw for a season-high 371 passing yards to go along with two touchdown passes. It was the first game Lawrence threw for over 300 yards this season, and it was just the second he’d thrown multiple touchdowns. However, Lawrence’s return to fantasy relevance could end as early as this week.
Over the first three weeks of the season, Lawrence averaged a meager 183 passing yards per game and only threw two touchdowns. According to our DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against tool, the three matchups he faced (Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo) are three of the most difficult for quarterbacks. Lawrence’s mini resurgence against Houston and Indianapolis makes sense — both are considered positive matchups according to the DVOA AFPA Tool (Indy being the third-best matchup). But the upcoming schedule is bleak, especially over the next two weeks. Jacksonville faces Chicago (the worst matchup) and New England (the ninth worst) in Weeks 6 and 7 and doesn’t play defense with a positive DVOA-AFPA until Week 13 versus Houston. There will be plenty of opportunities for garbage time points as poor as the Jag’s defense is. However, Lawrence’s ceiling and floor are capped for the foreseeable future.
4. All Aboard the Thomas Train!
Despite the struggles of Trevor Lawrence, rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has surfaced as one of the most productive wide receivers in all of fantasy, not just rookies.
Thomas is in the top five in receiving yards (414), receiving touchdowns (3), yards per reception (18) and yards per route run (2.9). He currently sits as the WR9 in PPR leagues and has become a must-start across the board, regardless of format. He could very well finish the season as the top rookie wide receiver in fantasy.
5. Need a Week 6 Fill-in? This DMV Matchup Has You Covered
You may see fireworks in the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) area this weekend, as the Commanders/Ravens game has one of the highest projected totals for the week. (51.5 at the time of writing). I’m not wasting your time telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry and Terry McLaurin. Per FTN’s Pace Tool, both teams are in the top half of the league in plays run, with Baltimore sitting second with 328. But with bye weeks and injuries, this game offers plenty of fill-in options. At running back Justice Hill and Austin Ekeler; at wide receiver Luke McCaffrey and Rashod Bateman; at tight end Zach Ertz and (gulp) Isaiah Likely. Don’t force them into your lineup, but you could do much worse for Week 6 fill-ins.
6. Get Your Flippers On, These Prices Are Fin-tastic!
The Miami Dolphins limp into their bye week with a small glimmer of hope after their disastrous start to the season. Tua Tagovailoa is eligible to be activated off IR in Week 8, and he’ll use the bye week to confer with experts to determine a timeline for if/when he’ll be able to play again this season. Chances are that fantasy managers who drafted Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and Tagovailoa are also having a disastrous start to their fantasy season. Now is the time to strike in an attempt to buy low on all of them. Don’t wait for a concrete timeline of an impending return to action. So far, all inklings have been positive and hinted he’ll be back sooner than later. It’s a gamble, but in the wise words of revered philosopher Fat Joe, “Yesterday’s price is not today’s price.” It’s far from a guarantee that Tagovailoa will return this season (if ever). But taking on the risk now could allow for a substantial discount.
7. No Collins, No Problem? Stroud’s About to Find Out
In one of the most disappointing developments in a season littered with them, Nico Collins pulled up lame with a hamstring injury in Week 5 against the Bills. Initial reports said he was day-to-day, but that quickly changed. Collins was placed on the IR by the Texans this week and must now miss at least the next four games. The top option for quarterback C.J. Stroud, Collins was having a career year and was among the top wide receivers in all of fantasy for 2024. How does losing Collins affect the reigning rookie of the year from a fantasy perspective? Let’s take a look.
According to the FTN Splits Tool, Stroud has played in 20 regular season games and has been without Collins in just three of them. Unsurprisingly, when Collins is out, Stroud’s completions, touchdowns, and passing yards drop, and his interceptions increase. He has a modest bump in rushing yards, but the bottom line is his fantasy points drop roughly 4 points per game (a passing touchdown in most leagues). While he does have Stefon Diggs to help ease the loss of production from Collins, Tank Dell seemingly still isn’t quite right after his injury last year. There’s no need to panic about Stroud, but his ceiling and floor drop as long as Collins is out of the lineup.
8. Show Me the Mooney!
Darnell Mooney‘s career and fantasy relevance have been revived in Atlanta, an offense that seems to get better by the week. Kirk Cousins is finally looking healthy, and Mooney has been one of his favorite targets. Mooney trails team leader Drake London by just four targets but has a healthy 21% target share and is tied for the team lead (and third most in the league) with three touchdown receptions. Mooney is locked in as an every-week start in PPR leagues as an upside WR3, with room to jump into the next tier.
9. Finding Fantasy Value in the Raiders’ Ruins
Despite the natural avoidance of awful offenses in fantasy football, productive players can emerge and be had at a value. In steps Jakobi Meyers The Raiders are a mess, have yet to name a starting quarterback for Week 6 at the time of writing, and star wide receiver Davante Adams has asked for a trade. But while Adams has been out the past two weeks due to “injury,” Meyers has feasted in volume.
Using the filtering options offered by StatsHub, I found that the first three weeks of the season (with Adams active), Meyers had a 13.8% target share. That’s jumped to 28.8% in Weeks 4 and 5, totaling more targets over the last two games than the previous three. The upside is capped due to the Raiders offensive deficiencies, but Meyers should offer consistency thanks to volume. There’s also a sneaky possibility for boom weeks when he’s able to get in the endzone. Buy Meyers.
10. Don’t Dismiss Wicks Just Yet
Did you hear that sound this morning? That’s all the rage drops of Dontayvion Wicks when waivers ran, thanks to his dud of a Week 5. But don’t give up on him just yet. Despite the 2-catch, 20-yard stat line, Wicks still led the Packers in targets with seven and has had 20 over the past two weeks. Romeo Doubs is expected back this week, so things will get slightly more crowded. But Wicks was overhyped with unrealistic expectations. He still holds the same upside he did coming into the season, tied to one of the best offenses in the league and a potential MVP candidate at quarterback. Scoop him up as fast as you can if he is dropped anywhere.
