Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the arrival of Week 10 of the fantasy football season, the playoff push is in full swing! Every decision counts now more than ever. My “10 Things” dives deep into the latest trends, analyzing risers and fallers to help you optimize your roster and secure a playoff spot.
1. Dowdlemania Running Wild in Dallas
The lone bright spot of the disappointing Dallas season has been the play of Rico Dowdle. He’s easily been the best back in Dallas, leading the team in nearly every efficiency metric imaginable: yards per carry, avoided tackle percentage, yards after contact, yards before contact, offensive yards per carry… the list goes on.
He’s scored 10 or more fantasy points in four straight thanks to his involvement in the passing game and is averaging over 18 points per game when he has double-digit attempts. He figures to be even more involved with Dak Prescott landing on IR. Dowdle is a solid RB2 and potential trade target if you’re looking for running back help.
2. Legette-ing It Done… For Now?
Easily one of the most likable players in the NFL, Xavier Legette has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his previous four games. He’s quickly moving up the wide receiver ranks thanks to his recent performance and trades of former teammates Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo. Legette leads Carolina in targets over the last two, with back-to-back games with 4 catches, at least 6 targets and a touchdown reception. But Legette’s yards per route run is fourth on the team, behind Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jalen Coker and (ew) Miles Sanders, per FTN StatsHub.
Legette has a mere 5.2 yards per target and five yards after the catch. Not per catch… total yards after the catch. Legette is certainly flex-worthy, but be careful before you anoint him a weekly starter.
3. Jonesing for a QB?
I’m tempted to light my keyboard on fire after I finish this article for what I’m about to type.
Daniel Jones is a buy low. *ducks at shoe thrown*
Jones is coming off his best all-round game of the season, including season-highs in touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and rushing yards (54). According to our DVOA-Adjusted Points Against, Jones’ rest of season schedule is tantalizing. Six of the Giant’s final seven opponents rank as top 10 matchups for quarterbacks: Carolina (No. 3), Tampa Bay (2), Dallas (6), Baltimore (5), Atlanta (7) and Indianapolis (8).
The seventh opponent, New Orleans, has been formidable against quarterbacks so far this season but just traded away star cornerback Marshon Lattimore. A few caveats, however. This is strictly for superflex or very deep 1QB leagues. This is also not a vote of confidence in Jones. Danny Dimes could wind up benched for good at any point, including this week. His price tag should be next to nothing, and that’s about all I’d be willing to pay. But if you started the season with Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott and Will Levis and have yet to find a replacement, Jones is a low-risk lottery ticket.
4. Herbert’s Bolt Back to Relevance
Justin Herbert had an abysmal start to his 2024 season. He failed to throw multiple touchdowns in five of his first six games and started the season with four games of sub-200 passing yards. But things have turned around rather quickly. He is averaging over 300 passing yards over his last three and is coming off back-to-back two-touchdown games. His upcoming schedule is promising as well. After this week’s neutral matchup with Tennessee (according to DVOA-APA), four of his next five opponents are top-10 matchups. Herbert does have a formidable stretch of defense over his final four games, including Denver in the fantasy playoff semifinals. But you have to make the playoffs for those matchups to matter. Herbert’s cupcake schedule over the season’s final stretch sets him up nicely to help get you there.
5. Waddle’s Woes: Tua’s Back, Targets Aren’t
It was easy to explain away Jaylen Waddle‘s slow start to the season with the absence of Tua Tagovailoa. But the expected bump back to normalcy with Tua’s return has yet to materialize. But why? Coming into the season, Waddle had averaged 7.7 targets per game over 47 games. Through eight games this season, that’s dropped to 4.7, down three targets per game. You can’t blame Tua’s absence, either. Using the filtering options offered by FTN StatsHub, I looked at Weeks 1, 8 and 9 (the only games Tagovailoa has started and finished), and Waddle’s targets per game are virtually the same (4.3).
In those three games, Waddle was fourth on the team in targets, behind Tyreek Hill (expected), Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane (unexpected). Waddle’s metrics look as good as ever; he’s producing when he gets the ball. His ceiling hasn’t changed, but his floor has bottomed out due to the lack of volume. He’s no longer a must-start, and I’d prefer to sit him on the bench until we see some improvement.
6. Harrison’s Slow Start: A Blessing in Disguise?
Calm down just a bit on Marvin Harrison Jr. We’ve been spoiled by historical outlier seasons from the likes of Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. It’s a point I regularly bring up when uber-hyped rookie wide receivers inevitably fail to live up to the unrealistic expectations set for them in the preseason. MHJ didn’t suddenly lose his talent like the All-Stars in Space Jam. We’ve seen the flashes of dominance. But this is why you don’t draft players at their ceiling. You buy all the risk and end up losing value when they struggle. Things aren’t great in the immediate future, but a matchup with the Jets this week and then a bye offers a buying opportunity you do not want to miss. After the bye, four of Arizona’s final six opponents are top 10 wide receiver matchups, according to DVOA-APA. Chances are, the team that has him could be fighting for their playoff lives and need to win now. It’s time to trade for MHJ if you can get him for anything less than a WR1.
7. The Curious Case of Nick Chubb
Back in the Week 5 edition of “10 Things,” I suggested trading away Nick Chubb before his return to the field. This is why. His comeback is a top-tier tale of perseverance, but his performance has been (unsurprisingly) lacking. Chubb is averaging a meager 2.7 yards per carry, 2.1 yards after contact and just 0.5 yards before contact. He’s not involved in the passing game either, averaging one target per game with a lone catch of -4 yards. There’s undoubtedly rust Chubb is knocking off, and he should see a healthy volume of touches for the rest of the season. But right now, you can’t start him. I’d trade him for literally anything of value. If you’re unable to find a buyer, I have zero issues dropping him.
8. Can Caleb Williams Turn It Around?
For fantasy purposes, Caleb Williams is a bust. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts, Williams has the second-lowest completion percentage (61.3%), third-lowest yards per attempt (6.3), fourth-lowest yards per completion (10.3) and second-lowest expected points added (-12.2). Williams is dead last in QB DVOA. The Bears are letting him take deep shots; Williams ranks second in the league in pass attempts of 20-plus yards with 40. The problem is his 22.5% completion percentage is the worst in the NFL. Williams has a brutal schedule down the stretch, according to DVOA-APA, including Green Bay, Minnesota, San Francisco and Detroit (twice). I wouldn’t drop him, even in 1QB leagues. The upside is still there. But he’s nothing more than a matchup play until further notice.
9. Why Is Raheem Mostert Still on Your Roster?
I for one am shocked that a 32-year-old running back with a history of injury troubles coming off a career year hasn’t returned value the following season. All joking aside, sell Raheem Mostert low. Fifty cents on the dollar, 25 cents, literally anything. His value is strictly in his name, which won’t last much longer. He’s seeing nowhere near the volume he did last season, has the lowest yards per carry among Miami running backs, and has recently developed a fumbling problem. His two-touchdown performance in Week 8 (on nine attempts) has temporarily given him a teeny tiny value boost that may be just enough to get a return on him. The bottom is about to fall out. Don’t get left holding the Mostert bag.
10. Handcuff Heaven: Don’t Miss Out on These League-Winners
As we head toward the end of the fantasy regular season and nearly past all the bye weeks, it’s time to stock up on those high-end handcuffs. Scour your waiver wire for running backs who are one injury away from a heavy workload. Backup running backs who need to be rostered in every league include Tyler Allgeier, Braelon Allen, Zach Charbonnet, Ray Davis, Blake Corum, Trey Benson and Jaylen Wright. They may have been dropped due to injury or bye week issues. Do not leave league-winning potential floating out on the wire.
