NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (1/12)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Al Horford o8.5 Points

(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 10.53)

Al Horford’s scoring production has been pretty low as of late, but he is still averaging over 10 points a game on the year, and my model has him right around his season average tonight. The Pacers are allowing 23.6 PPG to opposing PFs so far this season. 

Miles Bridges o28.5 PRA

(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 35.86)

Miles Bridges is averaging 19.5/7.3/3.6 on the year, but more importantly, he continues to get big minutes. With no Kelly Oubre once again, Bridges could be pushed into 40+ minutes tonight, as he was in the last game. With that kind of time on the floor, Bridges should have plenty of upside here. I also like the overs on Bridges’ assist and rebound props. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic u14.5 points

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 10.93)

Bogdan Bogdanovic has three straight games with 15+ points, but he is averaging just 12 PPG on the year, so this feels like a recency bias surge in his line. John Collins is back, Trae Young is healthy, and there is even a chance DeAndre Hunter returns as well. My model has him for less than 11 points tonight.