Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have three playoff games in the NBA tonight, and all of them are potential elimination games. The Clippers, Hawks and Timberwolves are all down 3-1 to their respective opponents. All three of them are also road underdogs of at least 10 points. We have some value that has opened up with a couple high-usage players on these underdogs sitting out.
Kawhi Leonard and Dejounte Murray are the two guys who should leave a big enough hole that we can find some value. You may notice below that all three of my plays are on the Atlanta Hawks because of the production this team has to make up for with no Murray in the lineup. The Clippers have played a few games without Kawhi already, so the adjustments to player props have already been made in those games. All of these plays graded out highly in our improved FTN Bets Player Prop Model.
Be sure to check out the latest episode of Betting With Benny:
Here are my three NBA best bets for Tuesday.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bets
Saddiq Bey OVER 4.5 Rebounds
Saddiq Bey has the second-highest edge on his rebound number today, and it has started to get bet up on most books. Bey is in line for a substantial jump in minutes with Dejounte Murray being out for this Game 5. Bey has only averaged a tad below 22 minutes per game this series. With no Murray, that should jump up closer to 30. Adding 30% playing time should raise his stat lines across the board, and a guy averaging four rebounds in 22 minutes should be able to get five with an additional 5-8 minutes of court time.
De’Andre Hunter OVER 4.5 Rebounds
De’Andre Hunter is seeing big minutes. He played 38, 35 and 40 in the last three games of this series. He averaged seven rebounds per game over this stretch and twice cruised past the five rebounds he would need to cash here.
Best NBA Blocks Prop Bet
Onyeka Okongwu OVER 0.5 Blocks
This is a ridiculously low number for Onyeka Okongwu, even in a part-time role. Okungwu had a streak of 16 straight games with a block snapped right before the playoffs started. He then bounced back with a four-block game against the Heat in the play-in round and has five blocks in four games against the Celtics in this series. He only needs to get one here to cash thisnumber. He is the biggest edge in our FTN Player Prop Model for blocks on the slate.
